Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...AXIS OF WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIES FROM
CTRL GA INTO THE NERN GOMEX. FEATURE IS MOVING RAPIDLY EWD...AND HAS
PRODUCED LARGE SHIELD OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF IT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SLIGHT THINNING OF THE HIGH CLOUD DECK
FROM ABOUT OSCEOLA/BREVARD COS SOUTH ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM CLOUD TRENDS
INDICATE THAT ANY GLIMPSES OF FILTERED SUNSHINE OVER THE SOUTH WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED.

MORNING RAOBS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY LATER BETWEEN ABOUT H80-H50...
SO STRATIFORM PRECIP SHIELD HAS SOME WORK TO DO SATURATING THE MID
LEVELS IN ORDER TO GET DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...EXTENSIVE
NATURE OF MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPY WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH IN TURN WILL MINIMIZE
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION THERE. RUC ANLYS FIELDS SHOW H25
JET DIVERGENCE OVERHEAD IS MODEST...BUT A LITTLE MORE RESPECTABLE
ACROSS SOUTH FL AND UPSTREAM OVER THE GOMEX. MID LEVEL TEMPS NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CWA ARE FAIRLY COOL...ABOUT -10C (TBW) TO -12C (JAX)
ACCORDING TO THE RAOB DATA...ABOUT -7 (MFL) TO -9C (XMR) FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. OVERALL...IT APPEARS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT IF ANY DO GET GOING THERE
THEY COULD BECOME STRONG.

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS...CAPPING THEM AT 50 OVER THE SOUTH
AND LIMITING THUNDER TO ALONG/SOUTH OF A LAKE KISM-KCOF LINE. GIVEN
CURRENT METAR OBS...MAXES IN THE L80S OVER ALL BUT THE SERN CWA
(NEAR 85F) LOOKS FINE.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT RAOB MOISTURE PROFILE ARGUES FOR CLOUD LAYERS
AOA 18KFT AND AOB ABOUT 6KFT ATTM. METARS BEAR THIS OUT...ALTHOUGH
WE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE MORE "TOP-DOWN" MOISTENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
12Z TAFS REMOVED VCTS AND TEMPO TS GROUPS GIVEN LOWER TS PROBS...
HOWEVER  WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MLB-SUA CORRIDOR GIVEN THAT
THE THINNING HIGH CLOUD DECK SEEN ON VIS IMAGERY IS ALLOWING FOR A
LITTLE MORE SURFACE HEATING ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A MODERATE SWELL
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE COMBINED SEAS 4-5FT NEAR SHORE AND ABOUT 7FT
WELL OFFSHORE...WHICH IS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE ONGOING FORECAST. NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE CWF...WITH A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR SEAS
REMAINING IN PLACE AREAWIDE. HWO/G-HWO CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT HIGH
THREAT FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE LONG PERIOD (12-14SEC)
SWELLS ARE PILING UP WATER BEHIND THE SAND BAR.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....VOLKMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1222 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-171900-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1222 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
MODERATE EASTERLY SWELLS FROM HURRICANE RAFAEL ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BRING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AROUND THE TIME OF LOW TIDE. RIP CURRENTS CAN BE LIFE-
THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF. IF CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO THE BEACH UNTIL OUT OF THE PULL OF THE
CURRENT...AND THEN SWIM BACK TO SHORE. DO NOT SWIM ALONE.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHTNING STORMS TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
REMEMBER...LIGHTNING MAKES EVERY THUNDERSTORM A POTENTIAL KILLER.
CEASE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IMMEDIATELY AND MOVE INDOORS IF THUNDER
IS HEARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND INLAND LAKES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE
KISSIMMEE TO PORT CANAVERAL.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE RAFAEL IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.
CONDITIONS NEAR INLETS WILL BE ROUGH DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HEAVY BREAKING WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THE
SURF ZONE HAZARDOUS INTO LATE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

15

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
319 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

FLZ059-064-171945-
MARTIN-ST. LUCIE-
319 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SMALL HAIL OVER
NORTHEASTERN MARTIN COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT.

AT 315 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZED HAIL NEAR STUART.
THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...
JENSEN BEACH AND WAVELAND.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING
ON SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF
HYDROPLANING AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2720 8017 2720 8019 2719 8018 2715 8022
      2716 8032 2734 8028 2734 8027 2740 8026
      2732 8021 2727 8019 2724 8017 2721 8016
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 180DEG 0KT 2732 8035

15