Special Weather Statement, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
723 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY THEN QUICKLY LIFT BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL
PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 715 AM MON...CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL PAMLICO
COUNTIES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OUTER BANKS CAPE HATTERAS AREA. HAVE
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE RADAR TRENDS. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TODAY AS BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE
THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST IN NW
MEAN FLOW ALOFT TODAY. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS/TSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -6
TO -8 C. SHEAR WILL BE MINIMAL BUT EXPECT BIGGEST THREAT TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD STORMS BECOME SEVERE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES CHANGE LITTLE TODAY...RANGING 1415 TO 1420
METERS...YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 430 AM MON...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING ALTHOUGH SOME MAY PERSIST ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
CONTINUED TREND OF DIMINISHING POPS AFTER 02Z. PATCHY FOG COULD BE
POSSIBLE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON PRECIP...CLOUD COVER...AND SURFACE WINDS
OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD UNDER MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER
70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM MONDAY...MAIN CHANGE WITH FCST PACKAGE WAS TO
INCREASE POPS TO 50% OVER NW 1/3 OF AREA TUE AFTN...AND ALL ZONES
TUE EVENING. GFS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH WDSPRD PCPN POTENTIAL
FROM NW FLOW SHRT WV AND PSBL MCS DEVELOPMENT...BUT SHRT WV ALONG
WITH SFC BNDRY AND LIKELY INTERACTIONS WITH SEA BREEZE BNDRY AND
OUTFLOW FROM UPSTREAM ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE BETTER THAN NORMAL
CHANCE FOR SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING INVERTED V PROFILES...SUPPORTING SPC SLGT RISK OF SVR
WITH DOWNBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REST OF FCST PERIOD. WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
BNDRY WILL STALL JUST S-SW OF AREA WED...LIMITING CONVECTIVE THREAT
TO SW 1/3 OF AREA. FRONT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE ON THU WITH INLAND
TROF AND SW FLOW RETURNING. UPR TROFFING EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
ERN US AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTMS.

HIGHS IN MID 90S AND DEW PTS IN MID-UPR 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDEXES AROUND 105 TUE AFTN. TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND
WEAK FRONT WED...THEN INCREASE AGAIN THU AND FRI WITH UPR RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 720 AM MON...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHICH MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS/CEILINGS.
FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AS
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON...CLOUD
COVER AND SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM MONDAY....PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF EARLY MORNING FOG OR
STRATUS. BEST CHC OF STRONG TO SVR TSTMS WILL BE TUE AFTN AND
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 730 AM MON...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
SW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO CROSS
THE NORTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND WILL BE OFF THE COAST FROM RODANTHE
SOUTH TO OFF OCRACOKE THROUGH ABOUT 13Z/9AM. SEAS RANGE 2 TO 4 FT
NORTH OF DIAMOND SHOALS IN A MOSTLY SWELL DOMINATED 8 SECOND
SEAS...WITH WIND-WAVE DOMINATED 5 SECOND SEAS RANGING 3 TO 5 FT
OFF ONSLOW BAY AND CAPE LOOKOUT.

EXPECT SW WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KT AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FEET TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO MODERATE SW FLOW.
THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...IN TANDEM
WITH SHORTWAVE DIVING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL INCREASE GRADIENT
TO NEAR 20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING NEAR 6 FEET
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS BY LATE EVENING. HAVE HOISTED SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
NORTH TOPSAIL...AS 6 FT SEAS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER
FRINGES WHERE THE SW SURFACE GRADIENT BECOMES MAXIMIZED. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM MONDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. THE
MODERATE SW FLOW WILL PRODUCE SEAS TO 5-7 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH A RETURN TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...DAG
MARINE...JBM/DAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
409 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-240815-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
409 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE TUESDAY...RANGING 100 TO 104
DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-098-103-104-240815-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
409 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO INCREASE TUESDAY...RANGING 100 TO 104
DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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