Heat Advisory 7, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
348 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY
AND PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN
QUICKLY LIFT BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHWEST FLOW
OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK.
ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM MON...CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS FAR WESTERN
COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONT OF NC. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARDS A BIT
FOR INLAND LOCALES...AS SEVERE THREAT HAS INC SOMEWHAT. SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SFC CAPE PARAMETERS ARE AOA 4500
J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR ABOVE 25 KT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A FEW
STORMS THAT DEVELOP TO BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO LATE NIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
AREAS...AS MODELS INDICATE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLOW TO EXIT THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID
70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...TUESDAY WILL FEATURE HOT TEMPERATURES AND
LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...AS AREA WILL BE UNDER INFLUENCE
OF BRIEF RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE IN FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHORTWAVE COULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND
OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THREAT WILL BE VERY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MORE LIKELY THE EVENING.

HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY AS COMBINATION OF HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S LEAD TO HEAT
INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN AREA
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90) IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FAR WEST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACTIVITY DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR. THERE COULD A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS WITH THE RETREATING WARM
FRONT BUT WILL KEEP DRY UNTIL THERE IS BETTER SUPPORT IN THE
MODELS. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN QUICKLY ON THURSDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND 850 MB TEMPS RECOVER TO >/= 20C AND
PRODUCES HIGHS INLAND IN THE MIDDLE 90S. WILL CARRY A SMALL POP FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE MODELS ONLY INDICATING
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY. THE HEAT CONTINUES
FRIDAY. THE INLAND/LEE/THERMAL TROUGH WILL SHARPEN AND MOVE INTO
THE COASTAL PLAIN WHICH COULD ENHANCE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. HEAT INDEX VALUES BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE AOA
105 DEGREES AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

THE PERSISTENT NE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD
FRONT JUMPING INTO THE LEE TROUGH POSITION AND STALLING AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER/NEAR
SEASONABLE/ TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 120 PM MON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CAW. GIVEN SUMMER TIME INSTABILITY THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. FEEL THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD NORTH OF THE TAFT SITES.
HOWEVER...DUE TO THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE...SUMMER TIME
HEATING...AND THE SEA BREEZE MIGRATION...CAN NOT RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INLAND. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ILLUSTRATING INLAND ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT AGAIN LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE PUT VCTS IN THE
TAFS UNTIL 02Z THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. WHILE MODELS
STILL HINT AT FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT UNDER CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT...HAVE NOT BOUGHT INTO IT. GIVEN A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY NOT FULLY DECOUPLE MAKING THE
POSSIBILITY EVEN LESS. EXPECT SOME BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDING THE RIDGE
ACROSS SE VA/NE NC TOMORROW MORNING...TO THE NE OF THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY....PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND BRIEF EARLY MORNING FOG OR
STRATUS. DIRER AIR IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY BE OVER THE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HUMID/UNSTABLE AIR RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO WEEKEND WITH
BETTER COVERAGE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS
THERMAL TROUGH INLAND AND BERMUDA HIGH OFFSHORE ACT TO STRENGTHEN
SW GRADIENT. WINDS WILL ALSO GUST TO 25 KT OR ABOVE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PAMLICO SOUND...SO HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN SCA AS WELL.
SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS IN RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING
GRADIENT AND REACH 6 TO 7 FEET FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
WATERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SW
FLOW SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND
DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. ROUGH WAVES AROUND 6 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO
4-5 FT WEDNESDAY. LATE THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND MODERATE SW FLOW
AT TIMES WILL REDEVELOP AS A WEAK FRONT STALLS INLAND WEST OF THE
WATERS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF10-15 KT/15-20 KT. CHOPPY SEAS OF
3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...JME/LEP
MARINE...JME/TL

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