Small Craft Advisory for Winds 36, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
840 PM PDT FRI MAR 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE WAS SENT EARLIER THIS EVENING. CLOSED LOW
NEAR 41 NORTH AND 135 WEST WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION STARTING A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE MOUNT SHASTA REGION. AS
SUCH HAVE BACKED UP THE START TIMES OF OUR ADVISORIES BY SEVERAL
HOURS. SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START LATER...THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT WILL FALL DURING THE NIGHT WILL ALSO BE
LIMITED. THE STRONGEST FORCING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OCCURS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY AND THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
MOUNT SHASTA CITY AND INTERSTATE 5. AS A RESULT...HAVE REDUCED
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THIS REGION AS WELL. PLEASE REFER TO PDXWSWMFR FOR
ALL THE DETAILS. NO FURTHER UPDATES HAVE BEEN MADE THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW WOBBLES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST...BUT REMAINS OUT NEAR 130W THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE GENERALLY SE FLOW THE REGION REMAINS IN VFR.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO SHORE AN OVERRUNNING DECK MOVES
IN...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGHER OBSCURATIONS. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR MOUNT
SHASTA LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS UPSLOPE FLOW TAKES
HOLD. STRONG RIDGE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN SW PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA SO TURBULENCE CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM PDT FRI MAR 23 2012/

SHORT TERM...FOCUS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY HAS BEEN ON THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED 550NM DUE WEST OF OUR AREA. THIS LOW IS
STARTING TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING
NEAR THE WEED AIRPORT AND HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY. THESE WINDS
WILL SOON SPREAD OVER TO THE EAST SIDE, BUT DON'T EXPECT THEM TO
REACH ADVISORY LEVEL. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP DUE SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE CENTER
APPROACHES 40N IT WILL SPREAD A SWATCH OF PRECIPITATION INTO
NORTHERN CA EARLY SATURDAY. THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE COINCIDES
WELL WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY 700MB WINDS OF 60+KTS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO STRONG UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE MT SHASTA REGION
SATURDAY MORNING. THE KEY WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE THE COLD AIR AND
THE TIMING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD POOL OF -1C TO -3C AT 850MB.
THIS SHOULD DRIVE SNOW LEVELS TO NEAR 3000 FEET DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. 700MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE BETWEEN -8C AND -10C WHICH
SHOULD MAKE FOR DECENT LAPSE RATES AND GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH.
THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE SOME HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS SET UP
AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THESE HEAVIER
SHOWERS WILL TOO HELP TO DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN. THE BIGGEST
FACTOR IS IF THE PRECIPITATION WERE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ROSE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN FORECAST. WE RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON THE
NAM WITH THIS EVENT AS IT SEEMED TO BE DOING BETTER WITH THE FINER
DETAILS OF TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AS THE COLD POOL
COMES ASHORE WITHIN THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY, SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRETCH OF
HIGHER QPF FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY NORTHWARD OVER THE CASCADES.
IT APPEARS THIS ENTIRE AREA REMAINS UNDER A CONVERGENT AXIS
BETWEEN THE PARENT LOW OFF THE CA COAST AND ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
INTERMOUTAIN WEST. FOR THESE REASONS WE BUMPED UP POPS AND QPF FOR
THE WEST SIDE ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING A CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 7
TO 10 DAYS. WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER LOW TAKES SHAPE NEAR 135 W. SO WE SHOULD CATCH A
BREAK IN THE ACTION WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT IT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WITH A STRONG FRONT PROJECTED TO IMPACT THE COAST
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN PUSHING INLAND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS ARE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON/NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KICK THE FRONT OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE MODELS KEEP A STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER STRONG FRONT MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO THE OREGON COAST WHICH COULD ADD TO THE FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND NEXT
FRIDAY...BUT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THE MEAN TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE PAC NW. THIS MEANS WE PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH EARLY APRIL.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON PDT
     SATURDAY ABOVE 3000 FEET FOR CAZ080-081.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON PDT
     SATURDAY FOR CAZ082.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON PDT
     SATURDAY FOR CAZ083.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ370-376.

SPILDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
200 PM PDT FRI MAR 23 2012

ORZ021-241400-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-
200 PM PDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
OREGON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE. SEE
FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ082-083-241400-
SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY-
200 PM PDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEE
WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ080-241400-
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY-
200 PM PDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ABOVE 3000
FEET. SEE WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES TO NOON PDT SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ081-241400-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
200 PM PDT FRI MAR 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ABOVE 3000
FEET. SEE WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES TO NOON PDT SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GLASER

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