Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
904 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND
OCCASIONALLY IMPINGING UPON THE COASTAL AREAS. HAVE INCLUDED THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AND EASTERN METRO AREAS IN AN UPDATE TO REFLECT
THIS TREND. NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE ZFP PACKAGE.

EXPECT NO CHANGES IN THE MARINE PACKAGE UPDATE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 243 AM EDT)
WATER VAPOR AND NAM ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...A BROAD TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEAST...AND ANOTHER
RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE
BAHAMAS. THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY MINOR FLOW CHANGES
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN A COL
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH OVERALL LIGHT FLOW. DUST
CONCENTRATIONS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HAZY SKIES WILL LIKELY END BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. SO
WILL KEEP THE HAZE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SO FOR THIS WEEKEND...THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY
AS THE DUST AND SUBSIDENCE REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES SHOULD SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
ALONG THE COASTS AND MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WITH HEAT INDICES
OF 100-105 DEGREES EACH DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

A TUTT LOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA WILL
MOVE SLOWLY WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WINDING UP IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH THIS TIME. THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DIG INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NORTHERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES.

AS MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
INCREASE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AND GULF COAST REGION...BUT ONLY
UP TO 20 PERCENT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN END OF THE AXIS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  SO RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WAVE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S TO AROUND
80.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAFS.
NO MAJOR UPDATES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY AROUND THE APF
SITE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO WITH REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS. OTHERWISE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS TODAY...OR INLAND OF THE
TERMINALS WHERE THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEA BREEZES CONVERGE. 85/AG

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS
ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  78 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  79  90  79 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI            91  79  91  79 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES           91  76  91  76 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
940 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
290445-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
940 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...
...SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE INLAND LOCATIONS. THE
PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

WATERSPOUTS: THE COMBINATION OF A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE
AND CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS WILL CREATE A SLIGHT RISK OF
WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

TEMPERATURES: AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 102 TO 107
RANGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CLOSER TO THE COAST, THESE VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEK. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD, WHICH MAY TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1232 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

FLZ073-281715-
INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL
1232 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT

* AT 1227 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOMESTEAD GENERAL AIRPORT...AND MOVING
  NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  HOMESTEAD GENERAL AIRPORT...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS.

LAT...LON 2546 8062 2557 8075 2565 8066 2570 8054
      2551 8047 2549 8047 2543 8056
TIME...MOT...LOC 1632Z 145DEG 7KT 2550 8054

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