Special Marine Warning 271, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
317 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

.UPDATE...THE EAST COAST METRO SAW SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTORMS
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED, THOUGH
THERE IS A CELL IN NORTHERN PALM BEACH METRO AND A RECENT SHOWER
OVER NE MIAMI-DADE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CU LINE ACROSS THE
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD METRO...SO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE OVER THE NW INTERIOR IS NOW
INCREASING OVER GLADES/HENDRY. DID A QUICK FORECAST UPDATED TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012/

AVIATION...

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT RECENTLY AFFECTED THE EAST COAST TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR TERMINAL KPBI HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LINGERING ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS KFXE AND KFLL WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. TERMINAL KAPF WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THE EAST COAST CONVECTION IS SPAWNING NEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS HAVING A CHANCE OF
BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 136 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012/

DISCUSSION...
THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HAS SEPARATED
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER S FLA THE PAST FEW DAYS
INTO TWO SEPARATE CELLS. ONE CELL OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE OTHER OVER THE ATLC. S FLA WILL BE IN A
COL AREA BETWEEN THE CELLS...AN AREA OF LIGHT WINDS ALOFT ALONG WITH
A SLOW INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. THE DRY SUBSIDENT LAYER OVER S FLA
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE IN THE SHORT AND LONG TERM THOUGH SOME FLUCTUATION OF
THE POSITIONING OF THE 2 HIGH PRESSURE CELLS AND THE COL MAY OCCUR.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER EVENING
CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS...MINIMAL SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR NIGHTLY MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THOUGH THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNEAKING ONSHORE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DURING THE DAY...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND
AMPLE SUNSHINE/HEATING SHOULD GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT POSSIBLY THE INTERIOR SUBURBS OF
THE COASTAL METRO AREAS AS WELL. IT WILL REMAIN HAZY WITH YELLOW
SUNRISES/SUNSETS WITH MILKY DAYTIME SKIES AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CARESS 90 AT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WITH UP
TO THE MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR. HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 AT THE COASTS
TO THE AROUND 105 IN THE INTERIOR. LOW TEMPERATURES BE IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES AT THE E COAST.

EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL
MIDWEEK AS A TROPICAL WAVE OVER GREATER HISPANIOLA LATE WEDNESDAY
BEGINS TO AFFECT S FLA WITH WITH GRADUAL INCREASING MOISTURE. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE MAY PASS ACROSS THE S AREA SOMETIME
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE HANGING AROUND INTO
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED FORECASTS IS AS
IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL STILL BE SCATTERED.

MARINE...WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS
IN ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  89  77  90 / 20 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  79  90 / 20 10 10 20
MIAMI            78  91  78  91 / 20 10 10 20
NAPLES           76  91  76  90 / 20 10 10 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...15/JR
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1232 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

FLZ073-281715-
INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL
1232 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT

* AT 1227 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOMESTEAD GENERAL AIRPORT...AND MOVING
  NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  HOMESTEAD GENERAL AIRPORT...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS.

LAT...LON 2546 8062 2557 8075 2565 8066 2570 8054
      2551 8047 2549 8047 2543 8056
TIME...MOT...LOC 1632Z 145DEG 7KT 2550 8054

60

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1246 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

FLZ071>074-281715-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD
COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
1246 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT

* AT 1240 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PEMBROKE PINES...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT
  10 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  PEMBROKE PINES...
  SOUTHWEST RANCHES...
  INTERSECTION U.S. 27 PINES BLVD...
  INTERSECTION I-75 AND GRIFFIN ROAD...
  DAVIE...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS.

LAT...LON 2598 8044 2613 8053 2620 8043 2622 8030
      2604 8024 2600 8024 2595 8025 2593 8038
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 157DEG 9KT 2601 8034

60

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1251 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     HOMESTEAD               25.48N 80.47W
07/28/2012                   MIAMI-DADE         FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICER AS WELL AS THE HOMESTEAD AIRPORT
            OBSERVER REPORTED A TINY FUNNEL CLOUD DEVELOPING AT ABOUT
            2 MILES SOUTHWEST FROM THE HOMESTEAD GENERAL AIRPORT.

&&

RIVERA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
116 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

FLZ071-072-172-281800-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD
COUNTY FL
116 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 111 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DAVIE...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  PLANTATION...
  SAWGRASS MILLS MALL...
  SUNRISE...
  LAUDERDALE LAKES...
  TAMARAC...
  NORTH LAUDERDALE...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE
FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS.

LAT...LON 2615 8040 2628 8038 2625 8022 2619 8012
      2612 8016 2604 8019 2603 8026 2609 8041
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 197DEG 9KT 2611 8029

60

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
121 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

FLZ069-070-281745-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
121 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 120 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GOLDEN GATE...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5
  MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  RURAL WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2628 8179 2631 8170 2615 8166 2610 8174
      2615 8182 2626 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 153DEG 5KT 2617 8173

60