Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
233 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE LOCAL AREA SITUATED
BETWEEN A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO TEXAS AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW STREAMING
OVERHEAD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED
RAINFALL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD TODAY. THE LATEST
RADAR LOOP SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SPREADING INLAND. HRRR...NCEP AND
LOCALLY RUN WRF SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING THE BEST
COVERAGE SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS BEFORE
TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...PERIODS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY INDICATE THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
CONTINUING WITH ELEVATED RAINFALL CHANCES. A FEW NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES FOR TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SW AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE
THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. 85/AG

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY-TUESDAY)
THE LATEST MODEL PACKAGE HAS BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND
KEEPING THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS IN TURN
KEEPS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...WHICH IN TURN
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL
ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR THE
WEEKEND FROM THE NORTH.

BECAUSE OF THE INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS MODEL RUNS AND THE
CONSISTENT RUNS WITH THE ECMWF MODEL ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...WE WILL BE FOLLOWING THE ECMWF
MODEL RUNS FOR THE WEATHER FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE POPS
THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN AT 20 PERCENT OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY.

BNB

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY OVER
ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS
AT 2 FEET OR LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THIS WEEK OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY CHANCE FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  85  71  84 / 40 60 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  84  73  83 / 30 60 30 60
MIAMI            74  85  72  83 / 30 50 30 50
NAPLES           72  85  71  85 / 20 40 20 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG

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