Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Miami, FL

596 
WWUS52 KMFL 151920
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
320 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLC099-151945-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120515T1945Z/
PALM BEACH FL-
320 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...

AT 319 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OF UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 
NEAR PHILO FARMS. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH...LARGE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. STAY
INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 2688 8012 2692 8028 2696 8026 2696 8015
      2698 8014 2698 8010 2697 8010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 295DEG 0KT 2695 8018

$$

GREGORIA

634 
WWUS52 KMFL 151945
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
345 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLC099-151955-
/O.EXP.KMFL.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-120515T1945Z/
PALM BEACH FL-
345 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE AREA. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO
55 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE STILL POSSIBLE. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2688 8012 2692 8028 2696 8026 2696 8015
      2698 8014 2698 8010 2697 8010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 295DEG 0KT 2695 8018

$$

GREGORIA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
233 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE LOCAL AREA SITUATED
BETWEEN A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO TEXAS AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW STREAMING
OVERHEAD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED
RAINFALL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD TODAY. THE LATEST
RADAR LOOP SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SPREADING INLAND. HRRR...NCEP AND
LOCALLY RUN WRF SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING THE BEST
COVERAGE SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS BEFORE
TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...PERIODS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY INDICATE THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
CONTINUING WITH ELEVATED RAINFALL CHANCES. A FEW NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES FOR TOMORROW AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SW AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE
THROUGH THIS TIME AS THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. 85/AG

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY-TUESDAY)
THE LATEST MODEL PACKAGE HAS BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND
KEEPING THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS IN TURN
KEEPS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...WHICH IN TURN
PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL
ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR THE
WEEKEND FROM THE NORTH.

BECAUSE OF THE INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS MODEL RUNS AND THE
CONSISTENT RUNS WITH THE ECMWF MODEL ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...WE WILL BE FOLLOWING THE ECMWF
MODEL RUNS FOR THE WEATHER FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE POPS
THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN AT 20 PERCENT OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY.

BNB

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY OVER
ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS
AT 2 FEET OR LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THIS WEEK OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY CHANCE FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  85  71  84 / 40 60 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  84  73  83 / 30 60 30 60
MIAMI            74  85  72  83 / 30 50 30 50
NAPLES           72  85  71  85 / 20 40 20 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
844 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-160400-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
844 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR AND EAST, ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE...
...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL INTERIOR/EAST THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
...HIGH RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ATLANTIC WATERS/BISCAYNE BAY THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW PULSE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, HAIL,
AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.

WIND: WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP.

HAIL: HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP.

FLOODING: TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY THIS MORNING.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
256 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FLZ067-068-168-151930-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METRO PALM
BEACH COUNTY FL
256 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING 5 MILES WEST OF JUPITER. THIS STORM
  WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  PHILO FARMS...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2689 8019 2696 8027 2696 8015 2698 8014
      2698 8012 2694 8009
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 233DEG 1KT 2695 8017

GREGORIA