Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
331 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS CENTERS THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC
JUST NORTH OF COLUMBIA MISSOURI. THERE HAS BEEN A BREAK IN THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FROM LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS A DRY SLOT /INDICATED BY
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS/ HAS BUILT IN TO ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF
THE MID SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN UP ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC.
TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK ARE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...LATEST SHORT TERM
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR AND THE 12Z WRF SUGGEST THE
RELATIVELY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. DAYTIME INSTABILITY /SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES AVERAGING BETWEEN 2000-3500 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -5 TO
-6/ AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
ARKANSAS...FROM NEAR WALNUT RIDGE BACK THROUGH CENTRAL AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. THUS...INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT REACHES SEVERE LIMITS. A
TROPICAL AIR MASS COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2
INCHES SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CONTAINING
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
RANGE MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEKEND. KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE LOW END FOR THE TIME BEING AS THERE
ARE SOME TIMING/COVERAGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG TERM MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
STARTING TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S.
SHOWERS WILL BE HIT AND MISS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...MUCH
LIKE YESTERDAY. AROUND 00-04Z A BAND OF POSSIBLY STRONGER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR JBR TO LITTLE ROCK
AND MOVE TO THE EAST. TRIED TO TIME THIS UN-DEVELOPED LINE BY
ADDING VCTS TO JBR...THEN MEM AND MKL. HOWEVER TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE WILL BECOME MUCH MORE CERTAIN AFTER...OR EVEN IF IT
DEVELOPS. WILL AMEND WHEN THERE IS SOMETHING MORE CONCRETE TO
TRACK. STRONG WIND AND BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE TO DIMINISH BY 06Z...WITH MVFR TO IFR LOW CLOUDS DURING
TH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  76  93  76  94 /  60  40  40  20
MKL  75  89  72  89 /  70  60  50  30
JBR  75  90  72  93 /  70  50  30  20
TUP  74  90  73  92 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
751 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-021200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
751 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE...AND
MOST OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI NORTH AND WEST OF TUPELO. DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE AND FAR
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.

SWC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
944 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

MSZ001-002-008-012-013-020330-
TATE MS-PANOLA MS-MARSHALL MS-LAFAYETTE MS-DE SOTO MS-
944 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR...

  EASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  EASTERN TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 6
MILES NORTHEAST OF INDEPENDENCE AT 945 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN DESOTO...LAFAYETTE...MARSHALL...PANOLA AND TATE COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR HOLLY SPRINGS...OLIVE BRANCH...SENATOBIA AND
WALL DOXEY STATE PARK...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8937 3446 8938 3455 9004 3499 8988
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 256DEG 38KT 3478 8973

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
945 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

TNZ088-089-020315-
SHELBY TN-FAYETTE TN-
945 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS TO 50 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER
COLLIERVILLE AT 945 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN FAYETTE AND SHELBY COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
BARTLETT...COLLIERVILLE...CORDOVA AND GERMANTOWN...SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3521 8931 3501 8937 3500 8993 3522 8992
TIME...MOT...LOC 0245Z 269DEG 33KT 3507 8970

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
946 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

MSZ011>013-020315-
QUITMAN MS-PANOLA MS-LAFAYETTE MS-
946 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR...

  WEST CENTRAL LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  CENTRAL QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 4
MILES NORTHWEST OF BATESVILLE AT 946 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LAFAYETTE...PANOLA AND QUITMAN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR BATESVILLE AND JOHN W KYLE STATE PARK...SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3455 9004 3447 8945 3416 8992 3423 9044
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 271DEG 28KT 3436 8997

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
948 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

TNZ021-054-055-020315-
CARROLL TN-DECATUR TN-HENDERSON TN-
948 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHERN DECATUR COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED
OVER NATCHEZ TRACE STATE PARK AT 948 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CARROLL...DECATUR AND HENDERSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR LEXINGTON...NATCHEZ TRACE STATE FOREST AND NATCHEZ
TRACE STATE PARK...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES PIN OAK LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8799 3572 8803 3568 8801 3564 8802
      3559 8802 3556 8852 3589 8840 3591 8821
      3585 8820 3585 8805 3584 8802 3582 8802
      3581 8796
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 256DEG 29KT 3577 8823

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1004 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

ARZ058-MSZ010-020345-
PHILLIPS AR-COAHOMA MS-
1004 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTH CENTRAL PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  COAHOMA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 3
MILES SOUTH OF ELAINE AT 1005 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN COAHOMA AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
CLARKSDALE AND ELAINE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES FLOWER LAKE...HORSESHOE
LAKE...MOON LAKE AND OLD TOWN LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3439 9090 3440 9044 3398 9045 3402 9067
      3411 9067 3412 9100
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 271DEG 27KT 3427 9082

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1013 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

TNZ053>055-091-092-020345-
CHESTER TN-DECATUR TN-HARDIN TN-HENDERSON TN-MCNAIRY TN-
1013 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHERN DECATUR COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS TO 45 MPH WAS LOCATED
FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF JACKS CREEK TO SELMER AT 1013 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CHESTER...DECATUR...HARDIN...HENDERSON AND MCNAIRY
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR SAVANNAH AND SELMER...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO
INCLUDES PINE LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8801 3536 8800 3531 8801 3529 8797
      3514 8798 3507 8874 3533 8854 3554 8861
      3560 8802 3553 8797 3549 8798 3546 8803
      3544 8804 3541 8796
TIME...MOT...LOC 0313Z 261DEG 35KT 3551 8852 3534 8843
          3516 8855