Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
646 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE FOUND ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S TO AS HIGH AS 102 DEGREES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING SEVERE PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SOME ON SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WITH
MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW 100 DEGREES. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WHICH WILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE
ABOVE 105 DEGREES FOR ONE MORE DAY SO WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY IN
EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS WELL AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION. AS THE
FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AND THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS HIGHER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

BY MONDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. THE COLD FRONT WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SO THERE WILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL THREE DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THESE DAYS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

POTENT OUTFLOW HAS MOVED ACROSS KMEM OVER THE PAST 15 MINUTES. SCT
TSRAS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL
CONTINUE A TEMPO AT KMEM FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTRW CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPECT VFR CONDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PERHAPS SOME MVFR FOG AT KTUP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RIGHT
NOW IT SEEMS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH MS SATURDAY AFTN SO WENT WITH A VCTS AT KTUP FOR NOW.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  80  98  78  94 /  30  30  30  50
MKL  75  98  74  93 /  30  20  30  40
JBR  77  99  76  93 /  20  20  30  50
TUP  76  96  74  92 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
341 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-072245-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
341 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS.

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH AS HEAT
INDEX READINGS REACH OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES. HOT TEMPERATURES AND
DRY FUELS MAY CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH THROUGH 8 PM
CDT SATURDAY AS HEAT INDEX READINGS REACH OR EXCEED 105 DEGREES.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND STALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS DURING THIS PERIOD AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR AREAS OF THE MID SOUTH EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
601 PM CDT FRI JUL 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARKERSBURG             33.97N 88.96W
07/06/2012                   CHICKASAW          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT CHICKASAW COUNTY

&&

JPM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

MOZ113-115-070000-
DUNKLIN MO-PEMISCOT MO-
629 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR...

  EAST CENTRAL DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  NORTHWESTERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WARDELL AT 629 PM
CDT...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN DUNKLIN AND PEMISCOT COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
KENNETT...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3644 8996 3639 8996 3639 8978 3624 8975
      3617 9010 3627 9010 3630 9007 3634 9008
      3639 9007 3641 9009 3646 9009
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 082DEG 12KT 3632 8988

RRH

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