Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Memphis, TN

580 
WWUS54 KMEG 072157
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
457 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

TNC071-072208-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0307.000000T0000Z-120707T2215Z/
HARDIN TN-
457 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN HARDIN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 458 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO 
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3514 8836 3542 8836 3535 8800 3531 8801
      3529 8797 3512 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 108DEG 15KT 3526 8808

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
359 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...

AS OF 3 PM...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WERE QUITE HOT AND
HUMID. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 IN MANY
SPOTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 104-109 RANGE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE ON THE CHANCES
FOR MUCH NEEDED RAIN FOR THE MIDSOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED TO OUR EAST
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST AND ENTER OUR AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
FORM AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS INTO OUR AREA. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AS THE MAIN
THREAT. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING AND HAVE
NOT REACHED SEVERE LIMITS YET. IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS BEEN WORKED OVER FROM YESTERDAY AND IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE
SO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY STAY QUITE ISOLATED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THERE
COULD BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN AND NAM MODELS SHOW BASICALLY NOTHING.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT IS HARD TO SAY WHICH ONE WILL VERIFY AT THE
MOMENT. HAVE MAINTAINED RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST RUN. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 70S WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD BE HOT AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...I
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE IN THE 99 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE. IF CLOUDS AND STORMS DO NOT
DEVELOP AROUND NOON LIKE MODELS ARE INDICATING...HEAT INDEX VALUES
COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM
ACROSS THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEY WILL FORM IN THE WARM
UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BE PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK VERY GOOD FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOK
LIKELY FOR THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
HELP THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION SLIGHTLY BUT WILL
NOT BE NEARLY ENOUGH TO BRING US COMPLETELY OUT OF THE DROUGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS SHOWING THE COLD
FRONT PUSHING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND TAKING ALL THE RAIN WITH IT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN SHOW THE COLD FRONT NOT
MOVING AS FAR SOUTH...AND THEREFORE KEEPS THE RAIN IN THE MIDSOUTH
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. AT THIS TIME...WAS NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO PUT HIGHER END RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
BUT THEY MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECAST CYCLES.

ALL THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND SWINGING INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. THIS
COULD CONTINUE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK EVEN
THOUGH THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE CLOUDS
FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES DOWN. TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK LOOK VERY NICE
COMPARED TO THE STEAMY CONDITIONS THAT HAVE PLAGUED THE MIDSOUTH
THIS PAST WEEK. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S SHOULD
LAST THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

RRH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHICH MAY BRIEFLY PRODUCE MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  79  95  75  90 /  30  50  60  60
MKL  73  94  72  89 /  30  50  60  70
JBR  76  95  74  90 /  30  50  60  60
TUP  74  94  73  90 /  40  50  40  70

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
316 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-082230-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
316 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS.

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 109 DEGREES.

THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...LAW ENFORCEMENT...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS MAY BE NEEDED IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLEASE REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE TO INCLUDE DOWNED
TREES...POWERLINES...AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OR ANY HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS OR LARGER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.

RRH