Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
409 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER MORNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ALONG A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT IS STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO WEST TENNESSEE.
THESE STORMS HAVE FORMED IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TODAYS FORECAST WILL
BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY HAS RECOVERED FROM SUNDAY EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE
SHORTWAVE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THESE AREAS REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES AND
THIS HAS RESULTED IN CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...LI/S
BETWEEN -3C AND -5C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.0 C/KM AS
PER LATEST SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...THERE HAVE BEEN
RECENT SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE (POWER POLES DOWN) AND LARGE
HAIL (QUARTER SIZE) FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE
WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTH FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND MAY EVENTUALLY LAY OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH NEAR
70 DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY/CONVECTION. AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS ACROSS THE
AREA...STORMS SHOULD EITHER CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS THIS
MORNING ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WILL
TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY/CONVECTION...AN ESTABLISHED COLD
POOL...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KTS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL OBVIOUSLY BE MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BUT SHOULD RECOVER TO THE NORTH OF THE MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FURTHER
SOUTH...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM THIS MORNING BUT MAY BE
KNOCKED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON BY ANY ONGOING CONVECTION.

AS STATED EARLIER...THE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MAY RECOVER
BY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE MORNING ACTIVITY. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS EVENING AND DRIVE ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS)
INTO WEST TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH
COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS TO SUPPORT A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT TONIGHT WITH THE MCS. THIS SHOULD AGAIN FORCE AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO INITIATE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ONCE
AGAIN...A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY BUT WEAKER SHEAR ALONG THE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
COLD FRONT.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE FRONT
INCLUDING THE LATEST ECMWF...FORCING IT TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST OVER THE MID
SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SEASONABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES
EXPECTED.

JLH

.LONG-TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID SOUTH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE MID SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

MCS GETTING READY TO EXIT THE REGION LEAVING BEHIND SOME QUICKLY
DIMINISHING STRATIFORM RAIN. EXPECT A FEW QUIET HOURS BEFORE
UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OVER NE OK/NW AR/SW MO BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LAID DOWN BY THE CURRENT
MCS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MAY ENCOURAGE THE NEXT MCS TO TAKE
A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. AS A RESULT CONFIDENCE IN THE LATE NIGHT
TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRAS HAS DECREASED. HAVE DECIDED TO JUST GO WITH
VCTS FOR NOW AT KMEM...KJBR AND KTUP ROUGHLY FROM 04/08Z-04/15Z.
KMKL IS LOCATED IN THE HEART OF THE COLD POOL SO PULLED MENTION OF
THUNDER THERE AFTER 04/07Z. KMKL COULD HAVE SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG
TOWARD SUNRISE. CONCERNING REDEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTN...CONFIDENCE
NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH REGARD TO TSRA CHANCES OR TIMING SO
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW .

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  89  72  88  66 /  60  30  30  10
MKL  88  64  85  58 /  50  60  30  10
JBR  89  67  86  62 /  50  30  30  10
TUP  89  67  88  64 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
437 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-051145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
437 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 TODAY...INCLUDING EASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST
TENNESSEE...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
RISK TODAY WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST
TENNESSEE...AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.

JLH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
414 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

MSZ002>005-TNZ089>091-040945-
BENTON MS-TIPPAH MS-MARSHALL MS-ALCORN MS-FAYETTE TN-HARDEMAN TN-
MCNAIRY TN-
414 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 445 AM CDT FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN TIPPAH COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTH CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAGRANGE AT 414 AM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN ALCORN...BENTON...FAYETTE...HARDEMAN...MARSHALL...MCNAIRY
AND TIPPAH COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BIG HILL POND STATE
PARK...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 8863 3471 8896 3501 8960 3526 8928
TIME...MOT...LOC 0914Z 301DEG 51KT 3506 8927

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
446 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

ARZ036-MSZ001>003-007-008-012-TNZ088-041015-
CRITTENDEN AR-BENTON MS-TUNICA MS-TATE MS-PANOLA MS-MARSHALL MS-
DE SOTO MS-SHELBY TN-
446 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 515 AM CDT FOR...

  SOUTH CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  WEST CENTRAL BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTH CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND
WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED FROM OLIVE BRANCH TO 3 MILES EAST
OF ROBINSONVILLE AT 446 AM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN BENTON...CRITTENDEN...DESOTO...MARSHALL...PANOLA...
SHELBY...TATE AND TUNICA COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
HERNANDO...HOLLY SPRINGS...HORN LAKE...OLIVE BRANCH...SENATOBIA...
SOUTHAVEN AND WALL DOXEY STATE PARK...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES HORN LAKE...
LAKE MCKELLAR AND ROBCO LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3488 9044 3487 9043 3484 9043 3483 9041
      3489 9041 3508 8980 3474 8925 3451 8983
      3483 9046 3487 9049
TIME...MOT...LOC 0946Z 300DEG 45KT 3494 8980 3479 9024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
514 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 AM     LIGHTNING        WALNUT                  34.95N 88.90W
06/04/2012                   TIPPAH             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A HOUSE WAS STRUCK BY LIGHTNING IN THE VICINITY OF WALNUT
            WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A FIRE AT THE RESIDENCE. THIS
            REPORT RECEIVED FROM A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER IN THE
            AREA.

&&

JLH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

MSZ012-013-021-022-041145-
YALOBUSHA MS-PANOLA MS-LAFAYETTE MS-CALHOUN MS-
609 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 645 AM CDT FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  EAST CENTRAL PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURGESS AT 609 AM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CALHOUN...LAFAYETTE...PANOLA AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO
INCLUDES SARDIS LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8926 3408 8934 3427 8994 3441 8979
TIME...MOT...LOC 1109Z 287DEG 30KT 3430 8972

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