Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
645 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH
TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
POSSIBLE RAPID REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
ARKANSAS. MCV INDUCED OUTFLOWS AND THE SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT HAVE
LED TO STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER THIS REGION WITH MID 90S
ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS BENEATH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH EML. ALTHOUGH CAPPED...THIS HAS LED TO EXTREMELY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 3500-4000 J/KG AND SBLI VALUES OF -10C. WITH BACKED
FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR IS GREATER
NORTH BUT INSTABILITY IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER. APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHERE INSTABILITY
/UNCAPPED/ AND SHEAR ARE BEST JUXTAPOSED ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...WITH THE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL INITIALLY...
THEN BECOMING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH TIME AS STORMS CONGEAL
INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. THIS MCS WOULD THEN RAKE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH - NAMELY SERN
MO/NERN AR/WRN TN/FAR NRN MS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
RAISED POPS IN THESE AREAS TO 70 PCT.

THE MCS MAY STILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
AREAS. REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TONIGHT/S CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
AMPLIFIES THE UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE RETURN
FLOW BEHIND THE MORNING MCS SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
QUICKLY...WITH STRONG HEATING EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES RISING
BACK INTO THE 90S. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IS PROBABLE
THROUGH THE DAY ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM TONIGHT AND
NEAR THE SYNOPTIC FRONT IN THE PRESENCE OF 3000+ J/KG CAPE. WIND
SHEAR AGAIN IS RATHER WEAK SO MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
WIND DAMAGE APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG DOWN THE EAST COAST...FORCING THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT FURTHER SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THUS...CONTINUED TO TAPER OFF POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THIS
TIME.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO TAKE THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY REMAINING MODEL TO KEEP
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THIS TIME WITH
THE NAM/DGEX/GFS/GEM ALL INDICATING A DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW. SEEMS
THE CONSENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WAS TO REMOVE POPS FOR MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE ECMWF PAN
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR.

A LARGE RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR LATE WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY...HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE BY NEXT SUNDAY WITH LOWER 925 MB TEMPS ADVECTING
WITH IT NORTHWARD INTO MISSISSIPPI. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY.

BORGHOFF

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS TSRAS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR A
WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. EXPECT THESE STORMS
TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
EVENING. ADDED TEMPOS FOR TSRAS AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. THE
QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHAT HAPPENS LATER TONIGHT. RAPID UPDATE
MODELS STILL SHOW REDEVELOPMENT STARTING AFT 04/08Z ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH DESPITE THE MCS MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR NOW KEPT
THE TEMPOS IN PLACE AT ALL SITES FOR LATER TONIGHT. ATTM NOT
CONFIDENT IN TSRA CHANCES OR TIMING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY SO
LEFT OUT MENTION FOR NOW THOUGH THIS WILL BE REVISITED. EXPECT
GENERALLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF TSRAS. LIGHT
SOUTH OR VARIABLE WINDS OUTSIDE OF TSRAS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WSW AT
8-10 KTS AFT 04/13Z.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  73  91  71  87 /  70  50  40  10
MKL  68  87  64  85 /  70  60  30  10
JBR  70  92  66  87 /  70  50  20  10
TUP  71  89  69  87 /  60  50  50  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
720 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-041200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
720 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING...CONGEAL INTO A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX...AND PUSH ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM JONESBORO...TO MEMPHIS...AND TUPELO ON MONDAY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
201 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

MSZ024-031930-
MONROE MS-
201 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 230 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF AMORY AT 201 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR AMORY...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 8822 3386 8823 3397 8858 3409 8849
      3409 8839 3405 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 290DEG 34KT 3402 8843

RRH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
220 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

MSZ017-024-031945-
MONROE MS-ITAWAMBA MS-
220 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR...

  EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTH OF SMITHVILLE AT 221 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN ITAWAMBA AND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3381 8823 3378 8824 3385 8860 3410 8837
      3409 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 280DEG 21KT 3389 8834

RRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
316 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GLEN                    34.87N 88.50W
06/03/2012                   ALCORN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUDS REPORTED NEAR GLEN AND CORINTH. POSSIBLE
            TORNADO NEAR GLEN.

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
359 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GLEN                    34.87N 88.50W
06/03/2012                   ALCORN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUDS REPORTED NEAR GLEN AND CORINTH. POSSIBLE
            TORNADO NEAR GLEN.

0130 PM     HAIL             W GLEN                  34.87N 88.50W
06/03/2012  E0.50 INCH       ALCORN             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            PEA TO 1/2 INCH HAIL REPORTED ON HWY 72 WEST OF GLEN.

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
658 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GLEN                    34.87N 88.50W
06/03/2012                   ALCORN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUDS REPORTED NEAR GLEN AND CORINTH. POSSIBLE
            TORNADO NEAR GLEN.

0130 PM     HAIL             W GLEN                  34.87N 88.50W
06/03/2012  E0.50 INCH       ALCORN             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            PEA TO 1/2 INCH HAIL REPORTED ON HWY 72 WEST OF GLEN.

0650 PM     HAIL             1 S SELMER              35.16N 88.59W
06/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       MCNAIRY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON HIGHWAY 45 JUST SOUTH OF
            SELMER

0650 PM     HAIL             1 S SELMER              35.16N 88.59W
06/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       MCNAIRY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON HIGHWAY 142 SOUTH OF SELMER

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S SELMER              35.16N 88.59W
06/03/2012  E60.00 MPH       MCNAIRY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST 55 TO 60 MPH ON HWY 142 JUST SOUTH OF SELMER.

&&

MRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
734 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     GLEN                    34.87N 88.50W
06/03/2012                   ALCORN             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FUNNEL CLOUDS REPORTED NEAR GLEN AND CORINTH. POSSIBLE
            TORNADO NEAR GLEN.

0130 PM     HAIL             W GLEN                  34.87N 88.50W
06/03/2012  E0.50 INCH       ALCORN             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            PEA TO 1/2 INCH HAIL REPORTED ON HWY 72 WEST OF GLEN.

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S SELMER              35.16N 88.59W
06/03/2012  E60.00 MPH       MCNAIRY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST 55 TO 60 MPH ON HWY 142 JUST SOUTH OF SELMER.

0650 PM     HAIL             1 S SELMER              35.16N 88.59W
06/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       MCNAIRY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON HIGHWAY 142 SOUTH OF SELMER

0650 PM     HAIL             1 S SELMER              35.16N 88.59W
06/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       MCNAIRY            TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON HIGHWAY 45 JUST SOUTH OF
            SELMER

0712 PM     HAIL             SMITHVILLE              36.08N 91.30W
06/03/2012  E4.50 INCH       LAWRENCE           AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            41/2 INCH SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN SMITHVILLE.

0715 PM     HAIL             SMITHVILLE              36.08N 91.30W
06/03/2012  E1.25 INCH       LAWRENCE           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL JUST SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN HALF DOLLAR SIZE REPORTED
            IN SMITHVILLE.

&&

MRM