Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1251 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012/

UPDATE...

UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
MORNING. A FEW SMALL ARCS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING
NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AND EAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE.
THUS...BUMPED UP POPS IN THESE AREAS. SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT BUT FLASH FLOODING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH NEARLY
STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF STORMS...A LA STORMS NEAR LAWRENCE COUNTY.

BORGHOFF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY SETTING OFF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT AFTER
SUNRISE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO BLOSSOM
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. ALREADY SEEING A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY
COULD BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST AND DUE TO THE TIMING OF
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW. FOR THIS REASON...THE SLIGHT RISK AS
BEEN EXPANDED INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM JACKSON...TO MEMPHIS...TO CLARKSDALE. COOLER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA QUICKLY. EXPECT
POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS A SFC HIGH LOCATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE CWA AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THE AREA DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S. WILL NEED TO WATCH TUESDAY NIGHTS LOWS AS FROST
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

COLD CORE UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF MEM AT 1745Z. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH SURFACE
HEATING...A CHANCE OF TS WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A LOSS OF TS INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE
HEATING BY THIS EVENING.

VFR LIKELY OVERNIGHT...WITH SUFFICIENT NORTH WINDS TO PRECLUDE
FOG FORMATION.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  69  50  67  48 /  80   0   0   0
MKL  72  45  66  38 /  80  10   0   0
JBR  69  47  66  43 /  80   0   0   0
TUP  71  49  71  44 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1230 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-061200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1230 PM CDT THU APR 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY 8 PM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES
EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

BORGHOFF

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