Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1000 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

.UPDATE...

UPPER LOW OVER ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
MORNING. A FEW SMALL ARCS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING
NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN ARKANSAS. SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH AND EAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS BY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE.
THUS...BUMPED UP POPS IN THESE AREAS. SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT BUT FLASH FLOODING IS
ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH NEARLY
STATIONARY MOVEMENT OF STORMS...A LA STORMS NEAR LAWRENCE COUNTY.

BORGHOFF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY SETTING OFF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT AFTER
SUNRISE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO BLOSSOM
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW. ALREADY SEEING A COUPLE LINES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY
COULD BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST AND DUE TO THE TIMING OF
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW. FOR THIS REASON...THE SLIGHT RISK AS
BEEN EXPANDED INTO THE MIDSOUTH. THE RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM JACKSON...TO MEMPHIS...TO CLARKSDALE. COOLER AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TODAY...KEEPING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.

TONIGHT...UPPER LOW PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA QUICKLY. EXPECT
POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS A SFC HIGH LOCATED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHWARD.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE CWA AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THE AREA DRY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST...SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANOTHER DRY COLD
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S. WILL NEED TO WATCH TUESDAY NIGHTS LOWS AS FROST
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR...BUT EXPECT SHORT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
VEER...SHIFTING FROM THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE LOW
TRACKS GENERALLY ACROSS MEM AND TUP. DUE TO THIS TRACK...WINDS
COULD SHIFT ABRUPTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  72  50  67  47 /  80  10   0   0
MKL  71  44  65  40 /  80  20   0   0
JBR  71  45  66  42 /  80  10   0   0
TUP  73  49  69  44 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
454 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-061200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
454 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE...FROM CLARKSDALE
MISSISSIPPI...TO MEMPHIS...TO JACKSON TENNESSEE. STRONG STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH.THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY 7 PM AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES
EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

KRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
946 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

MSZ001-TNZ088-051515-
DE SOTO MS-SHELBY TN-
946 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1015 AM CDT FOR...

  NORTHERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED
OVER WALLS AT 946 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN DESOTO AND SHELBY COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR HORN
LAKE...MIDTOWN MEMPHIS...OLIVE BRANCH...SOUTHAVEN AND T O FULLER
STATE PARK...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES LAKE MCKELLAR.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 9021 3504 9020 3510 9018 3513 9014
      3512 9011 3512 9008 3513 9007 3515 9007
      3516 9010 3524 9000 3493 8980 3482 9019
      3503 9024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1446Z 237DEG 21KT 3496 9012

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1001 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

TNZ088-051530-
SHELBY TN-
1001 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1030 AM CDT FOR...

  CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS
AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER MIDTOWN MEMPHIS AT 1001 AM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SHELBY COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BARTLETT...
CORDOVA...GERMANTOWN AND MIDTOWN MEMPHIS...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 8977 3511 8967 3503 8993 3516 9006
TIME...MOT...LOC 1501Z 231DEG 17KT 3512 8993

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1017 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

ARZ017-051600-
LAWRENCE AR-
1017 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR...

  LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A PENNY WAS
LOCATED OVER LYNN AT 1017 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN LAWRENCE COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BLACK ROCK...
HOXIE...LAKE CHARLES STATE PARK AND WALNUT RIDGE...SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3617 9136 3613 9107 3612 9107 3612 9106
      3609 9088 3588 9115 3589 9136
TIME...MOT...LOC 1517Z 223DEG 14KT 3599 9123

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1027 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

TNZ049-088-089-051615-
SHELBY TN-FAYETTE TN-TIPTON TN-
1027 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1115 AM CDT FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTH CENTRAL TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WERE LOCATED
OVER LAKELAND AND EADS AT 1027 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN FAYETTE...SHELBY AND TIPTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE
STORMS CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8970 3545 8954 3533 8944 3514 8970
      3534 8980
TIME...MOT...LOC 1527Z 218DEG 9KT 3527 8971

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1109 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

ARZ008-017-051700-
LAWRENCE AR-RANDOLPH AR-
1109 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT FOR...

  EASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTH CENTRAL RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS LOCATED
OVER PORTIA AT 1109 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
BLACK ROCK...HOXIE...LAKE CHARLES STATE PARK AND WALNUT RIDGE...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 9114 3619 9098 3612 9081 3591 9098
      3611 9122
TIME...MOT...LOC 1609Z 232DEG 12KT 3609 9106