Severe Thunderstorm Warning 411, NWS Memphis, TN

562 
WWUS54 KMEG 052128
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
428 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

TNC131-052138-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0411.000000T0000Z-120905T2145Z/
OBION TN-
428 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN OBION COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 428 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO 
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

.CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FUTURE WARNINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR YOUR AREA.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT
AREA.

LAT...LON 3651 8928 3651 8883 3648 8882 3641 8882
      3640 8891 3641 8895 3638 8896 3647 8935
      3651 8934 3652 8930
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 284DEG 11KT 3652 8916

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
304 PM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN
THREATS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621 IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
SMALL. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 105 DEGREES ON THURSDAY SO A
HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED OVERNIGHT FOR THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER AND MUCH MORE PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. BY TUESDAY EVENING...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION ALLOWING SOUTH WINDS TO BRING
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

CONFIDENCE IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT WANING AS LITTLE CU HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE AREA THUS FAR. SMALL LINE OF CLOUDS EXIST OVER NW
ARKANSAS BUT THUS FAR NO TSRA DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAVE VCTS WORDING
AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KJBR BUT WILL REMOVE MENTION OF TEMPOS.
STRATUS WILL MOVE INTO KTUP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SIMILAR
TO WHAT OCCUR THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT KMKL
REDUCING VSBYS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  78  97  78  94 /  30  10  10  40
MKL  72  95  71  92 /  40  10  10  30
JBR  74  96  73  91 /  20  10  10  40
TUP  74  95  73  95 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1156 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-061900-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1156 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE MID-
SOUTH. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH. ANY STORM THAT
BECOMES SEVERE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID
SOUTH. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.