Severe Thunderstorm Warning 336, NWS Memphis, TN

261 
WWUS54 KMEG 270104
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
804 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

ARC021-031-055-093-MOC069-155-270130-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0336.000000T0000Z-120727T0130Z/
CLAY AR-CRAIGHEAD AR-GREENE AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-DUNKLIN MO-PEMISCOT MO-
804 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR PEMISCOT...DUNKLIN...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEASTERN
GREENE...NORTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD AND EASTERN CLAY COUNTIES...

AT 804 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM CLARKTON TO GOBLER TO VAIL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10
MILES EAST OF CAMPBELL TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF STEELE TO MANILA...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BLACK OAK...
BLYTHEVILLE...BROOKLAND...BURDETTE...DELL...GOSNELL...GREENWAY...LAKE
CITY...LEACHVILLE...MANILA...MONETTE...NIMMONS...PIGGOTT AND ST.
FRANCIS.

 THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BIG LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF ANY RAIN OR
LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3653 8995 3639 8996 3639 8976 3643 8973
      3640 8958 3634 8954 3631 8962 3626 8954
      3624 8971 3613 8959 3609 8968 3600 8973
      3590 8965 3589 8977 3581 8973 3576 8981
      3578 9072 3589 9063 3613 9023 3654 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 273DEG 35KT 3644 8985 3613 8992
          3583 9019

$$

BORGHOFF

873 
WWUS54 KMEG 270117
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
817 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

ARC021-031-055-093-MOC069-155-270127-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0336.000000T0000Z-120727T0130Z/
CLAY AR-CRAIGHEAD AR-GREENE AR-MISSISSIPPI AR-DUNKLIN MO-PEMISCOT MO-
817 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PEMISCOT...DUNKLIN...NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEASTERN GREENE...NORTHEASTERN CRAIGHEAD AND
EASTERN CLAY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 817 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT
AREA.

LAT...LON 3653 8995 3639 8996 3639 8976 3643 8973
      3640 8958 3634 8954 3631 8962 3626 8954
      3624 8971 3613 8959 3609 8968 3600 8973
      3590 8965 3589 8977 3581 8973 3576 8981
      3578 9072 3589 9063 3613 9023 3654 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 273DEG 35KT 3643 8969 3612 8976
          3582 9004

$$

BORGHOFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
727 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATE REGARDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND TO EXPIRE HEAT
ADVISORY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS EVENING.
THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION AND MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MLCAPES IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE REMAIN BETWEEN
3000-4000 J/KG...LI/S AROUND -6C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6.5 C/KM. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES FROM LATEST
MESOANALYSIS ARE AROUND 1300 J/KG. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.

AS THE LINE PROGRESSES FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR...A GRADUAL WEAKENING PROCESS IS EXPECTED. LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND GREATER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE CONVECTIVE LINE.
THEREFORE THINK THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CURRENT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA OUTLINES THIS REGION WELL. STORM INTENSITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA.

THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS WELL. HEAT INDICES
HAVE DROPPED BELOW 105 DEGREES THIS EVENING AND EXPECTING THEM TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY IN MOST AREAS DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

FORECAST UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AS SHORT
TERM CONDITIONS REQUIRE.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO
SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP
UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THEM HAVE BEEN SEVERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THUS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED JUST NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. SO FAR ONLY TWO
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES
IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE ACTIVITY IN MISSOURI WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY FOR TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DIE OUT BUT THAT MAY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SO THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SINK AS FAR SOUTH AS
MEMPHIS THUS HAVE RAISED POPS TONIGHT TO 40 PERCENT. HEAT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM.

REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY
GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH NORTH MISSISSIPPI HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE. EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP AS
QUICKLY. IN ADDITION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MUCH LOWER THUS NO HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY. NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL MAY BE THE WARMEST EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT AS CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP AND WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...READINGS MAY REACH INTO THE
MID 90S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE WEEKEND...EXPECT WARM DAYS AND COOLER NIGHTS AS NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE AREA MOVES INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THUS EXPECT ONE MCS AFTER ANOTHER TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST AND
DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS THEN DIE OUT. THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET.
THEN EXPECT A REPEAT SCENARIO AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHT ETC.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

EXPANSIVE SQUALL LINE ACROSS SERN MO AND NERN AR IS BEGINNING TO
TURN SOUTH AND WILL AFFECT KJBR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LINE
WILL MAKE IT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. SUSPECT THAT BY 02-03Z THE
LINE WILL BE IN ITS WEAKENING PHASE AND IT MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
REACHING KMEM...BUT COULD REACH KMKL. THUS...LEFT OUT MENTION OF
TS AT KMEM FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE
AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.

BORGHOFF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  76  90  75  96 /  40  30  10  10
MKL  73  88  71  95 /  60  20  10  10
JBR  73  93  73  98 /  60  20   0  10
TUP  77  92  74  95 /  20  60  20  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
732 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-280245-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
732 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. REFER TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 530 FOR THE LATEST DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOW REQUESTED. PLEASE REPORT ANY WIND
DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES...AS WELL AS ANY
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR LARGER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MEMPHIS TENNESSEE.

JLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
704 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     WALNUT RIDGE            36.07N 90.96W
07/26/2012  M55.00 MPH       LAWRENCE           AR   AWOS

            WALNUT RIDGE AWOS MEASURED A 55 MPH WIND GUST

&&

JPM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
729 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

MOZ115-TNZ001-002-019-270100-
PEMISCOT MO-DYER TN-LAKE TN-OBION TN-
729 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHERN DYER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  OBION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS
LOCATED FROM CLAYTON TO 6 MILES NORTH OF DEERING AT 729 PM CDT...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN DYER...LAKE...OBION AND PEMISCOT COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR CARUTHERSVILLE...HAYTI...REELFOOT LAKE STATE PARK...
STEELE AND UNION CITY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES REELFOOT LAKE.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 8882 3640 8890 3641 8895 3633 8896
      3620 8906 3620 8915 3611 8916 3606 8986
      3627 8997 3631 8996 3635 8964 3638 8957
      3635 8953 3640 8953 3651 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 301DEG 32KT 3647 8921 3630 8954
          3627 8985

BORGHOFF