Severe Thunderstorm Warning 335, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
638 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS TO
SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP
UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW OF THEM HAVE BEEN SEVERE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...THUS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED JUST NORTH OF THE MIDSOUTH. SO FAR ONLY TWO
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES
IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE ACTIVITY IN MISSOURI WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY FOR TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY DIE OUT BUT THAT MAY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT SO THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD SINK AS FAR SOUTH AS
MEMPHIS THUS HAVE RAISED POPS TONIGHT TO 40 PERCENT. HEAT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM.

REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY
GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH NORTH MISSISSIPPI HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE. EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP AS
QUICKLY. IN ADDITION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN. HEAT INDICES WILL BE MUCH LOWER THUS NO HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NECESSARY. NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL MAY BE THE WARMEST EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT AS CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP AND WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...READINGS MAY REACH INTO THE
MID 90S. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE WEEKEND...EXPECT WARM DAYS AND COOLER NIGHTS AS NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE AREA MOVES INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THUS EXPECT ONE MCS AFTER ANOTHER TO DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST AND
DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS THEN DIE OUT. THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET.
THEN EXPECT A REPEAT SCENARIO AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY NIGHT ETC.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

EXPANSIVE SQUALL LINE ACROSS SERN MO AND NERN AR IS BEGINNING TO
TURN SOUTH AND WILL AFFECT KJBR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LINE
WILL MAKE IT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. SUSPECT THAT BY 02-03Z THE
LINE WILL BE IN ITS WEAKENING PHASE AND IT MAY HAVE A HARD TIME
REACHING KMEM...BUT COULD REACH KMKL. THUS...LEFT OUT MENTION OF
TS AT KMEM FOR NOW...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND MAKE
AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.

BORGHOFF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  76  90  75  96 /  40  30  10  10
MKL  73  88  71  95 /  60  20  10  10
JBR  73  93  73  98 /  60  20   0  10
TUP  77  92  74  95 /  20  60  20  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-271200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
354 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH TODAY
AS HEAT INDICES EXCEED 105 DEGREES.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING NORTH OF A LINE FROM CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
704 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     WALNUT RIDGE            36.07N 90.96W
07/26/2012  M55.00 MPH       LAWRENCE           AR   AWOS

            WALNUT RIDGE AWOS MEASURED A 55 MPH WIND GUST

&&

JPM