Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Memphis, TN

347 
WWUS54 KMEG 292313
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
613 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TNC039-077-292330-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-120529T2330Z/
DECATUR TN-HENDERSON TN-
613 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL HENDERSON AND SOUTHERN DECATUR COUNTIES...

AT 613 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GARRETT...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEXINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNT
TABOR...WILKINSTOWN...BEACON...GARRETT...GUMDALE...LARGO...HANEY...
RED WALNUT...MONTGOMERY...DUNBAR AND BATH SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 8798 3541 8810 3559 8829 3570 8819
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 320DEG 12KT 3556 8820

$$

488 
WWUS54 KMEG 292320
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TNC039-077-292330-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0192.000000T0000Z-120529T2330Z/
DECATUR TN-HENDERSON TN-
620 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL HENDERSON AND
SOUTHERN DECATUR COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 630 PM CDT...

AT 620 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3551 8798 3541 8810 3559 8829 3570 8819
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 320DEG 12KT 3554 8818

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
348 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. ONE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PUSHED ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS AND PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY
DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED TO ABOUT 60 WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TOWARD
THE MID 90S. A LITTLE TO THE EAST...TOWARD THE TN RIVER...THE
AIRMASS HAS RECOVERED FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION AND SBCAPES
ARE BACK INTO THE 2500-3000 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTIVE IS TRYING TO
FIRE ALONG ANOTHER OLD BOUNDARY...VISIBLE BY ENHANCED CU FIELD ON
SATELLITE...STRETCHING FROM SW KY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
MIDSOUTH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THE TN RIVER
SINCE THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER THERE. DOUBT THERE WILL BE MUCH
COVERAGE AT ALL ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER. ANY CONVECTION WILL
DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO
THE MIDSOUTH LATER TONIGHT. 12Z MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS FRONT. THE LIFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY IS MEAGER SO OPTED TO GO DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...THE WEAK FRONT BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA. NOT MUCH TO
TRIGGER ANY ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT EXPECT FOR SURFACE HEATING.
THE 12Z NAM DID SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW AR LATE TONIGHT
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT BUT THAT WOULD PROBABLY WEAKEN BEFORE
REACHING THE MIDSOUTH. CANNOT REALLY JUSTIFY ANYTHING GREATER
THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. A POTENT UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DROP OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE DEPICTING MCS
DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE MIDSOUTH...INVOF THE
STALLED FRONT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY START LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT BY THIS TIME. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROBABLY MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. MEANWHILE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR
AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY THOUGH THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION DEPENDS GREATLY ON THE IMPACTS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF -6C TO -8C AND SBCAPES GREATER THAN 2000
J/KG. THOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...MID LEVEL
WINDS OF 40 KTS PUSHING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEY SHOULD BE
ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL PROBABLY DEPEND
ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS THE FASTER MODEL THOUGH EITHER WAY
ACTIVITY WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING
SKIES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT PERIOD OF
WEATHER WITH COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 70S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH A FEW 40S IN SOME OF THE
COOLER SPOTS. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THOUGH STILL WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL REBUILD OVER THE
AREA WITH A RETURN TO WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. BY TUESDAY A
WEAK BOUNDARY MAY SAG INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SO
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS TS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR HAD MOVED INTO THE MS RIVER DELTA...INCLUDING THE MEM AREA...
BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EARLIER THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION...
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MIXING HAS ALSO SERVED TO BRING DRIER AIR ALOFT
TO THE SURFACE. KNQA WAS SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS FROM AGRICULTURAL
FIRES OVER THE MS RIVER DELTA.

GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING BEHIND THE EXITED BOUNDARY...
TS CHANCES APPEAR TOO LIMITED WARRANT A VCTS MENTION AT MEM AND JBR.
HAVE KEPT A BRIEF VCTS MENTION AT MKL AND TUP... WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WAS IN PLACE UPSTREAM OF A PROGRESSIVE MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS. THIS IS
A LOW CONFIDENCE VCTS... AND MAY HAVE TO PULL VCTS FROM THOSE
TERMINALS IF DRIER AIR MIXES IN.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  73  93  73  84 /  20  20  30  60
MKL  65  91  67  82 /  20  10  30  60
JBR  67  90  69  79 /  20  20  40  80
TUP  69  93  68  88 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
353 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-301130-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
353 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.

SJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TNZ004-292130-
HENRY TN-
354 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO
50 MPH WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF PARIS AT 354 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN HENRY COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR PARIS LANDING STATE
PARK AND PARIS...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3635 8800 3635 8809 3626 8808 3622 8811
      3622 8813 3615 8817 3650 8851 3650 8805
      3644 8805 3640 8801 3636 8799
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 315DEG 22KT 3646 8835

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
432 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TNZ003-004-021-292200-
WEAKLEY TN-CARROLL TN-HENRY TN-
432 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN WEAKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS
LOCATED FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF SPRINGVILLE TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MCKENZIE AT 432 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CARROLL...HENRY AND WEAKLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS
NEAR MCKENZIE AND PARIS...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3635 8809 3626 8808 3622 8811 3622 8813
      3615 8817 3612 8820 3593 8821 3614 8862
      3645 8813 3636 8799
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 308DEG 18KT 3634 8813 3615 8843