Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Memphis, TN

026 
WWUS54 KMEG 291025
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
525 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

TNC017-291035-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-120529T1030Z/
CARROLL TN-
525 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 530 AM CDT...

AT 525 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3613 8821 3600 8821 3597 8830 3612 8834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1025Z 238DEG 18KT 3602 8810

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
410 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK WITH A TEMPORARY COOLING TREND FOR LATE WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TO
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN PRODUCING SCT-
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT ALL NIGHT. THIS FRONT
WILL SLOW AND EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE STORMS HERE AND THERE WITH A
NEARLY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE TODAY...BUT THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
TRIGGER AND VERY LOW MOS POPS LEAVES ME VERY SKEPTICAL OF ANYTHING
HIGHER THAN 15 TO 20 PCT COVERAGE. THE GFS IS AGAIN WAY OVERDOING
ITS QPF DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE PARAMETRIZATION SCHEME IT HAS.
ECMWF AND NAM REPRESENTATION IS MUCH MORE REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE HOT...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER IN SPOTS WITH THE PRE FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE SLIDING
OVERHEAD. AT 3 AM...IT WAS STILL 80 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS WHICH WAS 4
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE SAME TIME SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE SOMEWHAT
HIGHER...WITH THE WEAK FRONT AND VERY LOW WIND SHEAR...NOT
EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AGAIN.

A MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING IN AREAS TO
THE WEST WHICH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH AFTERNOON. MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CONTINUING BUT WEAK
WIND SHEAR WILL KEEP IT FAIRLY DISORGANIZED. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WIND
FIELDS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WEEK. ECMWF
IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND INDICATES RAPID DRYING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. NAM IS SIMILAR TO THIS SOLUTION. GFS CLOSES OFF THE LOW
AND LAGS IT WEST LONGER WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EASTERN AREAS INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CANADIAN IS EVEN
MORE OUT TO LUNCH WITH THE LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE GULF COAST.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME EASTERN AREAS MAY FALL INTO THE 40S
FRIDAY NIGHT.

STRONG WAA RETURNS FOR LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
NEXT RIDGE AGGRESSIVELY BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. 00Z
ECMWF INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 100F OVER THE
DELTA AS 925 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE LOW +30S CELSIUS. SEEMS A BIT
TOO WARM SO KEPT TEMPS SIMILAR FROM LAST SHIFT.

BORGHOFF

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY AND THEN STALL
OUT ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THINK BEST TIME FOR /VCTS/
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE MAINLY AFTER 29/14-16Z AS
OVERALL INSTABILITY INCREASES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES TAF SITES. WENT
WITH VCSH AFTER 30/00Z DUE TO TIMING/COVERAGE ISSUES OF ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 5-7 KTS
WILL VEER NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  95  73  93  73 /  20  20  20  30
MKL  92  65  90  68 /  20  20  20  30
JBR  95  70  89  70 /  20  20  20  40
TUP  94  69  93  69 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
510 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-301130-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
510 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AND MAYBE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING.

BORGHOFF