Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
232 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND IS NOW
ENTERING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THIS LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  A DRYLINE IS SETUP TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GOOD WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 60S
AND CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA.
SHEAR VALUES ARE GOOD AS WELL WITH 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR 35 TO 40
KTS.  CLEARING FROM THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE MORNING WILL HELP TO CREATE
INSTABILITY AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE AND
LIFT TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LIFT BECOMES STRONGER FROM THE APPROACHING LOW.  CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES
EASTWARD.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT COOL OFF ON SUNDAY AS WINDS TRANSITION TO
THE NORTH.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPING ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THIS LOW WITH THE GFS BEING SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE LOW.  THE GFS
ALSO DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY.
DECIDED TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH LATER SHIFTS MAY
WANT TO LOOK AT ADDING POPS ON TUESDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA MID WEEK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW. THE LOW
WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  82  49  80  /  50  30   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              67  82  51  81  /  50  50  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                56  82  46  80  /  50  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  71  86  62  86  /  20  50  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  86  56  84  /  30  30   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  72  52  77  /  40  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   56  80  47  81  /  70  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   53  82  41  80  /  30  20   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  83  50  81  /  40  40   0  10
ODESSA TX                  67  82  51  80  /  40  30   0  10
WINK TX                    63  85  50  83  /  50  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

80/49

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-131800-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
1253 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012 /1153 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. SOME STORMS WILL
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
A CONCERN IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE TIMING OF INITIAL SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED TO BE AROUND 5 PM CDT/4 PM MDT AND IN VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. STORMS WILL THEN
BE FAVORED TO MOVE EASTWARD BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST PERMIAN BASIN EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SATURDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL
BE IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...
HAIL
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
500 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

NMZ027-028-122230-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
400 PM MDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING
CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF WHITES CITY AT
359 PM MDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3260 10437 3247 10414 3224 10406 3212 10449
      3227 10466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 231DEG 27KT 3228 10446