Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
234 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
STRETCHED ACROSS OUR REGION AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM THIS
AFTERNOON MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE GREATER. AS
WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO
50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. STORM MOTION WILL AGAIN BE SLOW WITH WEAK
FLOW ALOFT SO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT WITH ANY STORM. THE UPPER SHEAR AXIS LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY AFFECTING AREAS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE I 10
CORRIDOR.

AN UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK WAVE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWEST AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ON WEDNESDAY. INTRODUCED POPS FOR THIS
TIME FRAME OVER OUR SW CWA AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THIS
FEATURE.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC. LATEST
12Z GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHIFTING ISAAC WEST WITH
TIME. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVE QUICK ENOUGH
TO BE PICKED UP BY AN EAST COAST TROUGH. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT
ISAAC COULD BE DRIVEN WEST WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW AS THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TIME WILL TELL
AND THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS ISAAC IS JUST
ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE PROJECTED TRACK
OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST WE MAY SEE LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO COOL GIVEN DRY SOIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  90  69  91  /  20  20   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              70  92  69  93  /  30  20  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                69  91  67  92  /  20  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  73  91  73  95  /  20  30  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  87  68  91  /  20  30  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  83  62  84  /  20  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                   67  90  65  90  /  20  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   62  80  59  83  /  20  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  91  68  92  /  30  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  69  89  69  91  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                    71  92  73  94  /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

10/29

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-271930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
223 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012 /123 PM MDT SUN AUG 26 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ALSO...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
333 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

NMZ028-033-034-262100-
SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
233 PM MDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING
EAST CENTRAL EDDY AND WEST CENTRAL LEA COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HALFWAY AT 232
PM MDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.  THIS STORM WILL IMPACT SH 31.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3230 10403 3259 10406 3258 10373 3240 10369
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 082DEG 6KT 3248 10382

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
348 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

TXZ074-262115-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
348 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY AT
349 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3094 10409 3102 10400 3094 10387 3084 10377
      3069 10386 3069 10407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 182DEG 5KT 3078 10397

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

TXZ047-048-262145-
SCURRY-BORDEN-
408 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHEASTERN BORDEN AND NORTHWESTERN SCURRY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLUVANNA AT
408 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3288 10107 3272 10135 3296 10149 3297 10145
      3297 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 062DEG 5KT 3292 10122

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
456 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

NMZ034-TXZ050-059-060-262230-
LOVING-WINKLER-ANDREWS-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
456 PM CDT SUN AUG 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTHEASTERN LOVING...NORTHWESTERN WINKLER...SOUTHEASTERN LEA AND
SOUTHWESTERN ANDREWS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT/430 PM MDT/...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JAL AT 456 PM
CDT/356 PM MDT/...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 10315 3201 10358 3223 10319 3216 10282
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 053DEG 8KT 3208 10313