Special Weather Statement, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
238 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAVE CHANGED LITTLE. FIRE DANGER
REMAINS HIGH UNTIL SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE SEEN. TODAY AND
MUCH OF SATURDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THEN CHANCES
OF RAIN INCREASE WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

LATE MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED WEST FROM MS
BUT HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY MOVE WEST TOWARD AR. NORTHERN AR NOW
SEEING ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMING...AND STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL WHILE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER
SOUTHERN AR WITH SOME WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY. WILL KEEP
SOME CHANCE IN EVENING PERIOD. TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO 100 DEGREES TO
AROUND 105 DEGREES IN SPOTS OVER AR AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S...AND UNSTABLE IN PLACE ATMOSPHERE...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
AFTER SUNSET ANY STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES HAVE REACHED 100 DEGREES TO AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON IN SPOTS. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MO WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION IN THE FIRST
PERIOD. A LULL AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATES...THEN HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN TO EASTERN
PARTS OF AR...WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOWING IN THE MODELS.
GFS DOES HAVE MORE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO FLATTEN OVER NORTHERN MO...WHICH WILL SET UP A EAST UPPER WHICH
WILL BRING SOME UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND AR. HENCE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST. AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND REPOSITIONS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH TO NEAR OR OVER AR. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL END UP...AND THIS
WOULD BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION AND RAIN
OCCURS OVER AR. MODELS AT LEAST SAG THE BOUNDARY TO NORTHERN
AR. GFS HAS THE BOUNDARY TO CENTRAL AR MONDAY AM...WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF KLIT ON MONDAY. AT ANY RATE...POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A STALLED OR QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER AR. ALSO IN QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF FACTORS COME TOGETHER...0.50 TO 1.0
INCHES OF NEARLY WIDE SPREAD RAIN...AND WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO 2 INCHES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY HAVE
HELD BACK OVERALL AMOUNTS. SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD
REMAINS ISOLATED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER SATURDAY...THEN LOWER MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
HIGHS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO SRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM...WITH BEST POPS GENERALLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE
AR/LA STATE LINE. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MED RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL...EITHER
ACROSS SRN AR...OR FURTHER SOUTH JUST ACROSS THE AR STATE LINE. IF
THE FRONT STALLS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS DROPPING THIS FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...WITH BEST
PRECIP CHANCES DROPPING SOUTH OF AR BY WED AND THU. COOLEST TEMPS
WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING AS THE PRECIP
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  99  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
CAMDEN AR         73  98  73  95 /  20  40  40  50
HARRISON AR       72  98  72  93 /  10  20  20  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  98  74  94 /  20  30  30  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  99  75  94 /  20  30  30  50
MONTICELLO AR     74  97  74  95 /  30  40  40  50
MOUNT IDA AR      73  98  73  94 /  20  30  30  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  98  73  93 /  10  20  20  40
NEWPORT AR        76  99  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     75  98  75  95 /  20  40  30  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  98  73  93 /  10  30  30  40
SEARCY AR         75  99  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
STUTTGART AR      75  99  75  95 /  20  30  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN. VEGETATION HAS DRIED OUT IN
MANY AREAS...AND WILDFIRES HAVE BECOME COMMON. THERE IS AN EXTREME
WILDFIRE DANGER...AND MOST COUNTIES HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE. ANY
FIRE THAT STARTS COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND QUICKLY GET OUT OF CONTROL.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS. WHILE THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LIMITED...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

IN THE COMING DAYS...THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
DROP SOUTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS TO PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

WHATEVER RAIN MATERIALIZES...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
THE ONGOING DROUGHT. OUTDOOR BURNING OF ANY KIND IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

44

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
328 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

ARZ032-033-062115-
FAULKNER AR-WHITE AR-
328 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WHITE AND NORTHEASTERN
FAULKNER COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 326 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GRAVEL HILL...OR 14 MILES WEST OF SEARCY...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GRAVEL HILL...        ROMANCE...            JOY...
  FLOYD...              GIN MTN...            DES ARC MTN...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3511 9207 3531 9215 3536 9196 3520 9186
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 065DEG 8KT 3525 9198

227

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
358 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

ARZ042-062130-
GARLAND AR-
358 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GARLAND COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF LAKE CATHERINE...OR 5 MILES EAST
OF HOT SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PINEY...              LAKE HAMILTON...      HOT SPRINGS...
  ROCKWELL...           LAKE CATHERINE...
  HOT SPRINGS NATL PARK...
  HOT SPRINGS MEM FLD...                      WILSON SPRINGS...
  RED OAK...            WEST MTN...           SUGARLOAF MTN...
  OAKLAWN RACETRACK...  NORTH MTN...          HOT SPRINGS MTN...
  HILL WHEATLEY PARK... GARLAND CNTY FAIRGNDS...
  EUCLID HEIGHTS...     CARPENTER DAM...

&&

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3453 9317 3456 9292 3451 9288 3450 9292
      3447 9291 3439 9310
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 065DEG 6KT 3450 9297

46

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
402 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

ARZ067-062145-
CALHOUN AR-
402 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CALHOUN COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

AT 359 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAMPTON...MOVING WEST AT 5
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HAMPTON...            HARRELL...            HAMPTON MUNI ARPT...
  WOODBERRY...          TINSMAN...            SUMMERVILLE...
  HARRELL LAKE...       CRAM...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3362 9258 3364 9233 3352 9232 3348 9257
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 083DEG 6KT 3356 9245

/64

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
413 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

ARZ024-033-062200-
CLEBURNE AR-WHITE AR-
413 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WHITE AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN CLEBURNE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 412 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAVEL HILL...OR 13 MILES
WEST OF SEARCY...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GRAVEL HILL...        CROSBY...             SIDON...
  ROMANCE...            JOY...                CENTER HILL...
  SMYRNA...             MT PISGAH...          DES ARC MTN...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3520 9181 3520 9207 3538 9202 3539 9184
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 359DEG 7KT 3531 9195

227