Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
238 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAVE CHANGED LITTLE. FIRE DANGER
REMAINS HIGH UNTIL SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE SEEN. TODAY AND
MUCH OF SATURDAY...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THEN CHANCES
OF RAIN INCREASE WITH UPPER SUPPORT AND POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

LATE MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED WEST FROM MS
BUT HAVE WEAKENED AS THEY MOVE WEST TOWARD AR. NORTHERN AR NOW
SEEING ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMING...AND STILL POSSIBLE TO SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL WHILE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE OVER
SOUTHERN AR WITH SOME WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY. WILL KEEP
SOME CHANCE IN EVENING PERIOD. TEMPS HAVE WARMED TO 100 DEGREES TO
AROUND 105 DEGREES IN SPOTS OVER AR AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S...AND UNSTABLE IN PLACE ATMOSPHERE...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
TO NEAR SEVERE LEVELS MAY BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
AFTER SUNSET ANY STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES HAVE REACHED 100 DEGREES TO AROUND 105 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON IN SPOTS. ALOFT THE UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MO WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING CONVECTION IN THE FIRST
PERIOD. A LULL AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION DISSIPATES...THEN HAVE
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN TO EASTERN
PARTS OF AR...WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOWING IN THE MODELS.
GFS DOES HAVE MORE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO FLATTEN OVER NORTHERN MO...WHICH WILL SET UP A EAST UPPER WHICH
WILL BRING SOME UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND AR. HENCE CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST. AS THE WEEKEND
PROGRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND REPOSITIONS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTH TO NEAR OR OVER AR. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL END UP...AND THIS
WOULD BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION AND RAIN
OCCURS OVER AR. MODELS AT LEAST SAG THE BOUNDARY TO NORTHERN
AR. GFS HAS THE BOUNDARY TO CENTRAL AR MONDAY AM...WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF KLIT ON MONDAY. AT ANY RATE...POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A STALLED OR QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER AR. ALSO IN QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF FACTORS COME TOGETHER...0.50 TO 1.0
INCHES OF NEARLY WIDE SPREAD RAIN...AND WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO 2 INCHES WOULD BE POSSIBLE. BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY HAVE
HELD BACK OVERALL AMOUNTS. SEVERE STORM THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD
REMAINS ISOLATED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
FEW DEGREES LOWER SATURDAY...THEN LOWER MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL
HIGHS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO SRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM...WITH BEST POPS GENERALLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL THEN SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES THE
AR/LA STATE LINE. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE MED RANGE
MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHERE THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL...EITHER
ACROSS SRN AR...OR FURTHER SOUTH JUST ACROSS THE AR STATE LINE. IF
THE FRONT STALLS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AS THE ECMWF SHOWS...CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS IS DROPPING THIS FRONT FURTHER SOUTH...WITH BEST
PRECIP CHANCES DROPPING SOUTH OF AR BY WED AND THU. COOLEST TEMPS
WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEK...THEN GRADUALLY WARMING AS THE PRECIP
MOVES FURTHER SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  99  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
CAMDEN AR         73  98  73  95 /  20  40  40  50
HARRISON AR       72  98  72  93 /  10  20  20  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  98  74  94 /  20  30  30  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  99  75  94 /  20  30  30  50
MONTICELLO AR     74  97  74  95 /  30  40  40  50
MOUNT IDA AR      73  98  73  94 /  20  30  30  50
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  98  73  93 /  10  20  20  40
NEWPORT AR        76  99  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
PINE BLUFF AR     75  98  75  95 /  20  40  30  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  98  73  93 /  10  30  30  40
SEARCY AR         75  99  75  94 /  20  30  30  40
STUTTGART AR      75  99  75  95 /  20  30  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN. VEGETATION HAS DRIED OUT IN
MANY AREAS...AND WILDFIRES HAVE BECOME COMMON. THERE IS AN EXTREME
WILDFIRE DANGER...AND MOST COUNTIES HAVE BURN BANS IN PLACE. ANY
FIRE THAT STARTS COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND QUICKLY GET OUT OF CONTROL.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH ARKANSAS. WHILE THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
LIMITED...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

IN THE COMING DAYS...THE PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
DROP SOUTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS TO PRODUCE GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

WHATEVER RAIN MATERIALIZES...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
THE ONGOING DROUGHT. OUTDOOR BURNING OF ANY KIND IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
425 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

ARZ044-062155-
PULASKI AR-
425 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PULASKI COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM CDT...

AT 420 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF N LITTLE ROCK ARPT...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SHERWOOD...           N LITTLE ROCK ARPT... NORTH LITTLE ROCK...
  DWNTWN LITTLE ROCK... LITTLE ROCK ARPT...   SYLVAN HILLS...
  PROTHRO JUNCTION...   MCALMONT...           MARCHE...
  LEVY...               LAKEWOOD...           GRAVEL RIDGE...
  CAMP ROBINSON...      BURNS PARK...         ARGENTA...
  ROSE CITY...          COLLEGE STATION...    FERNDALE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 137 AND 142.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 145 AND 157.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 430 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 4 AND 12.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 440 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 5.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 630 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 7.

&&

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3469 9219 3472 9246 3492 9233 3492 9218
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 030DEG 8KT 3487 9228

46

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
446 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

ARZ039-043-044-062215-
PERRY AR-PULASKI AR-SALINE AR-
446 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SALINE...WESTERN PULASKI
AND SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 441 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF LAKE NORRELL...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MAUMELLE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LAKE SYLVIA...        REFORM...             PARON...
  WILFORD PEAK...       SCHOOLHOUSE MTN...    RATTLESNAKE MTN...
  PIGEON ROOST MTN...   KETCHEL MTN...        JOLLY ROGER LNDG...
  JENNINGS MTN...       HORSESHOE MTN...      GRINDSTONE MTN...
  GOODSON MTN...        COLE MTN...           COLD SPRING MTN...
  BRUSHY MTN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3467 9280 3488 9286 3489 9257 3476 9254
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 082DEG 7KT 3479 9264

/64

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