Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Little Rock, AR

238 
WWUS54 KLZK 022132
SVSLZK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
432 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

ARC097-109-113-022200-
/O.CON.KLZK.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-120402T2200Z/
MONTGOMERY AR-PIKE AR-POLK AR-
432 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
POLK...NORTHWESTERN PIKE AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

AT 429 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ALBERT PIKE REC AREA...OR 15 MILES
NORTHWEST OF LAKE GREESON...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...
  ALBERT PIKE REC AREA...                     NEW HOPE...
  LANGLEY...            SUGARTREE MTN...     
  STAR OF THE WEST REC AREA...                SHERMAN MTN...
  SHADY LAKE...         RASPBERRY MTN...      PRYOR MTN...
  LEADER MTN...         HWY 70 REC AREA...    GRANDFIELD...
  BARD SPGS REC AREA... ALBERT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3439 9408 3444 9381 3417 9380 3417 9383
      3418 9392 3419 9393 3434 9394 3434 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 172DEG 15KT 3436 9394

$$

BJS

052 
WWUS54 KLZK 022156
SVSLZK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
456 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

ARC097-109-113-022205-
/O.EXP.KLZK.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-120402T2200Z/
MONTGOMERY AR-PIKE AR-POLK AR-
456 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL POLK...
NORTHWESTERN PIKE AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
500 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF POLK COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3439 9408 3444 9381 3417 9380 3417 9383
      3418 9392 3419 9393 3434 9394 3434 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 172DEG 15KT 3446 9396

$$

BJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
241 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
A SYSTEM ALOFT IN NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS
OVERNIGHT. AN MCS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING
AND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE EARLY.

OTHERWISE...THE PATTERN WILL BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE IN THE NEAR
TERM AS A CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WOBBLES TOWARD
ARKANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY. SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST.

IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF LITTLE ROCK ON THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER AND EVENTUALLY
EXITS THE REGION.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER/MORE SEASONABLE
AIR THAT WILL BE AROUND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING PRECIP DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE SE OF AR AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
DRY CONDITIONS AND CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SEEN FOR
FRI...WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. BY SAT...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING SW.
MENTION INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NWRN COUNTIES AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATE SAT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN ENERGY WILL
REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO
STALL OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE FOR SUN. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY
REMAIN STALLED BRIEFLY AS ANOTHER...STRONGER UPPER WAVE DIVES SE
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE LONG TERM...PUSHING
THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE STATE AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  81  61  77 /  20  50  60  60
CAMDEN AR         64  82  64  79 /  50  40  60  50
HARRISON AR       61  80  58  75 /  20  50  70  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    64  81  63  78 /  50  40  60  50
LITTLE ROCK   AR  64  82  63  78 /  40  40  60  50
MONTICELLO AR     65  84  64  79 /  50  40  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      63  80  62  78 /  50  40  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  81  59  76 /  20  50  60  50
NEWPORT AR        64  82  61  78 /  20  50  60  60
PINE BLUFF AR     65  83  64  79 /  50  40  60  50
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  80  61  77 /  40  50  60  50
SEARCY AR         64  81  62  78 /  30  40  60  60
STUTTGART AR      64  82  63  79 /  30  40  60  60
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1250 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1250 PM CDT MON APR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN LOUISIANA WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE
SOUTHWEST OF MENA AND PINE BLUFF.

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

STORMS WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THEY SPREAD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT FROM THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE SOME RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME IT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WHEN THE BEST
PERIOD WILL BE AND FUTURE FORECASTS WILL FINE TUNE THIS THREAT.

THE MAIN THREATS OF ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ALSO SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NOTED.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH EAST OF ARKANSAS BY FRIDAY
AND END THE CHANCE OF RAIN. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON
FRIDAY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

59/46