Severe Thunderstorm Warning 476, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
207 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CONVECTION WITH
SEVERE POTENTIAL. ELEVATED WINDS TODAY AND ON THURSDAY. ELEVATED
FIRE CONCERNS ON THURSDAY DUE TO WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES. A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED.

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
TO EVENING. KLZK 18Z SOUNDING SHOWS SOME CAPPING IN 5K TO 10K
FT...WHILE WINDS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FROM THE S TO SW. PRECIP
WATER VALUE WAS 1.09 INCHES...MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH LI OF
-1.0...WHILE HELICITY OF 362 M2/S2. CAPE WAS 360 J/KG. IF THE CAP
ERODES DUE TO MIXING THE CAPE VALUES WILL GO UP.

CLOUD COVER HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN TODAY WHILE MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE
INCREASED WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE 60S OVER AR...WITH THE BEST
SURGE IN SW AR. CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW HAD FORMED OVER EASTERN
OK...WITH THE OTHER SURFACE LOW IN THE UPPER PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WAS SOUTH OVER EASTERN KS TO NEAR MO...WHILE TO EASTERN OK. THE
LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-50 KNOTS WAS STILL HELPING PULL MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. ALOFT THE UPPER TROUGH WAS DEEPENING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MID WEST. STRONG
NW UPPER FLOW WAS NOTED.

OVERALL TIMING OF THE FRONT HAS SLOWED JUST A LITTLE WITH AROUND
20Z NEAR NW AR...THEN MOVING AT A GOOD PASS THROUGH THE STATE...
AROUND 00Z TO 03Z IN CENTRAL SPOTS...AND 06Z TO 10Z EAST AND THEN
OUT OF AR BY 12Z. FROM THIS MORNING THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IF ALL THE FACTORS WILL COME FOR ANY MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS. STILL EXPECTING A SEVERE THREAT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A SQUALL LINE OF STORMS. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW
THIS...ESPECIALLY IN EAST CENTRAL TO EASTERN AR. DAMAGING WINDS
WITH THIS QUICK MOVING LINE ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY BUT IS NOT THE FAVORED SCENARIO. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT DUE TO WIND DYNAMICS...ESPECIALLY
OVER SE AR WHERE SURFACE WINDS MAY BE A BIT MORE SE TO INCREASING
VEERING PROFILE. ALL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY DUE TO
THE STRONG MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM THE W TO NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

FIRST PERIOD WILL STAY WITH THE HIGH POPS WITH SEVERE STORM
MENTION AS THE CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK WITH WORK ITS WAY EAST
WITH THE BOUNDARY. HAVE SEEN A PREFRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION AND THEN ADDITIONAL LINE ALONG AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.
WRF AND RR MODELS DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. THE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE GOOD MID LEVEL WINDS AND
REACH EASTERN AR AROUND 06Z TO 10Z. QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN DUE TO SPEED AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO
THE CONVECTION. WENT WITH HIGHEST FROM A 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH WITH A
FEW ISOLATED HIGHER SPOTS. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE ONLY SEE A FEW
TENTHS.

ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT AND BRING QUITE A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS. WINDS WILL BE
ELEVATED ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AR TO CENTRAL...AND WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S...A FIRE WEATHER DANGER STATEMENT
WILL BE NEED. SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES AT
THIS TIME. DUE TO THE STRONG SURFACE AND UPPER SYSTEM...THE COOLER
AIR MASS WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. ANY CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY OVER NORTHERN AR WILL THIN INTO FRIDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL BE SEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR BELOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD THEN A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A SOMEWHAT FLAT RIDGE WILL DEVELOP IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED TERM. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT. EXTENDED TERM MODELS ARE
IN DISAGREEMENT OVER THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH THE GFS BEING MUCH WETTER AND GENERATING A WIDE AREA OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE NWRN PART OF THE STATE...WITH A DRIER ECMWF AND A
CANADIAN MODEL THAT IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN.

AT THIS TIME I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION BUT I AM
PUTTING SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/NWRN ZONES ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT PER THE CANADIAN MODEL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     45  69  43  69 /  80  10   0   0
CAMDEN AR         48  76  46  75 /  60  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       41  65  41  64 /  40  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    46  73  44  72 /  50  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  47  73  44  71 /  70  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     50  75  47  74 /  70  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      45  71  43  70 /  40  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  66  41  65 /  60  10   0   0
NEWPORT AR        45  70  43  69 /  80  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     48  74  45  73 /  70  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   44  69  41  69 /  50  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         44  70  42  69 /  80  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      46  72  43  71 /  80  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...53

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-181000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST...
WHICH WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. ALSO...GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.

THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT FIRST
OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS...EVENTUALLY EVOLVING INTO A LINE OF STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. THE LINE WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A LOT OF WIND ENERGY SURROUNDING THE FRONT. THIS
WILL GIVE THE STORMS A FAST FORWARD MOVEMENT...WHICH OFTEN LEADS TO
STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...WINDS WILL TURN WITH HEIGHT...
AND THIS MAY CREATE ROTATION IN SOME STORMS. GIVEN THIS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
HIGHWAY 67...167 AND INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL USHER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
MOST OF ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
703 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 NE SEATON             34.61N 91.80W
10/17/2012                   LONOKE             AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
748 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARENDON               34.70N 91.31W
10/17/2012                   MONROE             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN CLARENDON.

&&

CDALTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
757 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

ARZ032-043-044-180125-
FAULKNER AR-PULASKI AR-SALINE AR-
757 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SALINE...CENTRAL PULASKI
AND SOUTHERN FAULKNER COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 754 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF LAKE NORRELL...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE MAUMELLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WEST LITTLE ROCK...   N LITTLE ROCK ARPT... NORTH LITTLE ROCK...
  MAUMELLE...           LAKE MAUMELLE...      ROLAND...
  PINNACLE MTN...       MORGAN...             MARCHE...
  LEVY...               LAKEWOOD...           LAKE NORRELL...
  CHENAL VALLEY...      CAMP ROBINSON...      BURNS PARK...
  ARGENTA...            PALARM...             NATURAL STEPS...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 141 AND 142.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 138 AND 154.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 430 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 5 AND 12.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 630 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 3 AND 7.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3497 9229 3475 9223 3469 9268 3487 9273
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 257DEG 37KT 3480 9259

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
816 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TORNADO          CLARENDON               34.70N 91.31W
10/17/2012                   MONROE             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A BUILDING WAS DAMAGED IN CLARENDON...WITH PARTS OF THE
            BUILDING OUT IN THE STREET. MANY TREES AND POWER LINES
            WERE BLOWN DOWN. THE ENTERGY ELECTIC OUTAGE MAP INDICATED
            THE ENTIRE TOWN OF CLARENDON WAS WITHOUT POWER. EXTRA
            STATE TROOPERS ARE HEADED TO CLARENDON.

&&

28

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