Severe Thunderstorm Warning 419, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
654 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH SECTIONS WHILE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH FROM MISSOURI. GUSTY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
PBF AND WITH OTHER THUNDERSTORMS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC WERE OVER EASTERN MISSOURI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
ONE MORE ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THAT WILL BE THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART FOR THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNDER THE HIGH...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE...
AND IT WILL FEEL VERY MUCH LIKE SUMMER WITH AT/ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

AS THE PERIOD ENDS...THE HIGH WILL BEGIN RETROGRADING. A NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL DRIVE A NEW COLD TOWARD THE REGION...AND THAT
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LONG TERM. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT. THIS WILL
KEEP SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...AS SEVERAL WAVES MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL FOR
THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     74  91  72  94 /  50  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         76  96  77  98 /  50  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       69  90  70  94 /  20  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    75  96  76  98 /  40  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  95  76  97 /  50  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     76  94  77  95 /  60  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      74  96  75  97 /  40  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  90  70  94 /  30  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        75  91  73  93 /  50  30  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     75  94  75  95 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  97  74  98 /  30  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         74  93  73  94 /  50  20  20  10
STUTTGART AR      75  93  74  94 /  50  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
645 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
645 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAAC ARE NOW OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE AND AS
ISAAC CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER ARKANSAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE. THE
MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME IS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE AS STRONG WIND
ENERGY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ISAAC.

WITH THE SOUPY AIR MASS SITTING OVER THE STATE...ANY STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT SAW THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST 2 DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS AS A RESULT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID AND EVEN SOME UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...HEAT
INDICES COULD RISE TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES SUNDAY...MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTHEAST OF LITTLE ROCK.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
823 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DIXIE                   35.08N 91.35W
08/31/2012                   WOODRUFF           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN DIXIE.

&&

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
905 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

ARZ047-057-020250-
ARKANSAS AR-MONROE AR-
905 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONROE AND
CENTRAL ARKANSAS COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 903 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DE WITT...OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF WHITE
RIVER NWR...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ST. CHARLES...        DE WITT...            ETHEL...
  DE LUCE...            WRIGHT LAKE...        VAN...
  TURNER LAKE...        THOMAS RESERVOIR...   STAR LAKE...
  SHEPPARD POINT...     PRICES LAKE...        PRAIRIE UNION...
  OLENA...              MITCHELL LAKE...      MILLER LAKE...
  MCKINLEY RES...       MCKEWEN LAKE...       MAYVIEW...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3433 9105 3429 9106 3428 9107 3421 9106
      3419 9109 3416 9108 3420 9144 3438 9142
      3438 9100 3434 9100
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 274DEG 23KT 3428 9132

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
920 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

ARZ057-065-020250-
ARKANSAS AR-DESHA AR-
920 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DESHA AND SOUTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 916 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GILLETT...OR 11 MILES WEST
OF WHITE RIVER NWR...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WHITE RIVER NWR...    TRUSTEN HOLDER WMA... STIMSON...
  SNOW LAKE...          MORGAN PT REC AREA... MERRISACH LAKE...
  LORAYS...             LACONIA...            GILLETT...
  WEBER...              PENDLETON...          MOZART...
  ARKANSAS POST...      WOLF BAYOU...         WHITING LAKE...
  WEBFOOT LAKE...       WARD RESERVOIR...     TICHNOR...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 3402 9090 3401 9098 3398 9096 3395 9097
      3399 9102 3397 9108 3396 9108 3394 9102
      3393 9102 3397 9143 3419 9140 3418 9109
      3412 9110 3412 9096 3410 9092 3410 9089
      3408 9086
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 272DEG 24KT 3408 9130

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
924 PM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DES ARC                 34.98N 91.51W
09/01/2012                   PRAIRIE            AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER REPORTED LOTS OF LARGE TREES WERE DOWN
            ALONG WITH SEVERAL DOWN POWER LINES. OBSERVER ALSO
            REPORTED ALMOST 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN TWO HOURS.

&&

MCLAY

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>