Special Weather Statement, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
704 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CAPE ALONG WITH LIFT PROVIDED FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MARYLAND INTO THE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA THIS EVENING.
T-STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT...BUT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE
CAPE AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO PUMP IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS WITH
MORE EFFICIENT QPF PRODUCERS...LEADING TO A LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. CONTINUED TRENDS AND RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST AREAS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW OVER MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE D.C/BALTIMORE METRO AND SOUTHERN MD
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HOLD IN LONGER AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT. THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWFA LATER SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS OF MID
TO UPR 80S BOTH DAYS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST MONDAY SOME SLY FLOW
UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY /ALONG WITH BAY BREEZES/ MAY AID DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION...SO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTMS WERE ADDED FOR SRN MD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE WILL BRING TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL...MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F
TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. PATCHY
FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH IMPACT TO ALL TERMINALS. VFR WILL RETURN SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN FOR LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON THE WATERS AND THAT SHOULD
BE THE TREND. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AND
DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY LEADING
TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THE WATERS LATER SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-537>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ530>534-538>543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...KRW/BJL
SHORT TERM...BAJ
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/KRW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
502 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
101000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
502 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
INLET.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERS
FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-101000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
502 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
734 PM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     HAIL             2 N BELMONT             39.10N  77.51W
08/09/2012  E0.88 INCH       LOUDOUN            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201055

BJL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
739 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

MDZ501-502-WVZ050-504-100030-
HAMPSHIRE WV-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY MD-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY MD-EASTERN MINERAL WV-
739 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT HAMPSHIRE...EXTREME WESTERN
ALLEGANY...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY AND EASTERN MINERAL
COUNTIES...

AT 739 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES WEST OF
FORT ASHBY...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE CUMBERLAND...RIDGELEY AND LA VALE.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING...AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. REMAIN ALERT...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY FOR YOUR SAFETY. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE MILE
AND MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

PENNY-SIZE TO NICKEL-SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN BRING DOWN LARGE
TREE BRANCHES. TAKE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7846 3940 7871 3947 7890 3973 7888
      3973 7847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 196DEG 15KT 3950 7880

KONARIK