Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CAPE AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED PULSE MODE STORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS LEADING UP
TO SUNSET. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED OR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD STILL LINGER OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE
CAPE AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO PUMP IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS WITH
MORE EFFICIENT QPF PRODUCERS...LEADING TO A LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. CONTINUED TRENDS AND RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR
MOST AREAS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW OVER MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE D.C/BALTIMORE METRO AND SOUTHERN MD
WHERE SHOWERS WILL HOLD IN LONGER AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT. THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE CWFA LATER SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPS OF MID
TO UPR 80S BOTH DAYS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST MONDAY SOME SLY FLOW
UP THE CHESAPEAKE BAY /ALONG WITH BAY BREEZES/ MAY AID DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION...SO SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSTMS WERE ADDED FOR SRN MD.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS TUESDAY. POSSIBLE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE...PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE WILL BRING TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL...MAX TEMPS AROUND 90F
TUESDAY...AND PERHAPS INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOT THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS. PATCHY
FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WILL AFFECT THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH IMPACT TO ALL TERMINALS. VFR WILL RETURN SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN FOR LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON THE WATERS AND THAT SHOULD
BE THE TREND. WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE.

SOUTHERLY CHANNELING WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AND
DECIDED TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS ON FRIDAY LEADING
TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THE WATERS LATER SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ530>533-537>542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ534-543.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BAJ
NEAR TERM...KRW
SHORT TERM...KRW
LONG TERM...BAJ
AVIATION...BAJ/KRW
MARINE...BAJ/KRW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
502 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
101000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
502 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER
INLET.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERS
FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-101000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
502 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY EVENING. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE
HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
614 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

WVZ050-055-092300-
HARDY WV-HAMPSHIRE WV-
614 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT HARDY AND HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES...

AT 615 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF KIRBY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ROMNEY.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING...AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. REMAIN ALERT...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE MILE
AND MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

PENNY-SIZE TO NICKEL-SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3945 7875 3932 7842 3906 7873 3913 7887
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 211DEG 11KT 3917 7875

KONARIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
616 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

VAZ028-WVZ052-053-092300-
JEFFERSON WV-BERKELEY WV-FREDERICK VA-
616 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT JEFFERSON...BERKELEY AND FREDERICK
COUNTIES...

AT 616 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES EAST OF
ALBIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE INWOOD.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING...AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
RAPIDLY. REMAIN ALERT...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF WARNINGS
ARE ISSUED.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY FOR YOUR SAFETY. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN BRING DOWN LARGE TREE BRANCHES.
TAKE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3947 7818 3938 7792 3915 7817 3923 7833
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 207DEG 7KT 3923 7816

KONARIK

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