Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
925 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN STALL TO
THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ONE GAME IN TOWN ATTM - SVR TSTM MOVG ACROSS THE NRN PART OF BALT
CITY/SRN BALT COUNTY. WE WERE SEEING A TIGHTER ROTATION ON THE VEL
PRODUCTS ABT 15 MIN AGO...AND HAD A TOR OUT ERLR. THE OTHER
CONSIDERATION IS THE PSBLTY OF FLSH FLDG IN THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT.
WE'RE CONTINUING TO MONITOR.

OVERALL STAYED WARM ON TEMPS DUE TO SLOW PROGRESS OF SFC FNT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TROF AXIS MOVES E OF CWA WED NGT...BRINGING RAPID END TO ANY LINGER
PCPN FROM WED EVE. SHRTWV RDGG DOMINATES THU/THU NGT...BRINGING
MOSTLY CLR SKIES...SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS...AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES.

FRI...SLY FLOW RETURNS AS M/ULVL TROF DEEPENS OVR GREAT LAKES AND
CDFNT APPROACHES CNTRL APLCNS. 12Z GUIDANCE DELAYS FWD PROGRESS OF
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL HEATING. MAXIMA FCST
AROUND 90F...AND AT LEAST MDT INSTABILITY SHUD COMBINE WITH DECENT
BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CNVCTN ALONG AND AHEAD OF CDFNT FRI
AFTN/EVE. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE STRONG/SVR...THO TIMING OF FROPA AND
DEGREE OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD-COVER WILL BE FACTORS IN EXTENT OF SVR
RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CDFNT SAGS SWD FRI NGT AND WILL BE S OF CWA SAT AND SUN...AFTER
STALLING ACRS SRN VA. SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG BNDRY MAY SPREAD NWD INTO
CWA AS WAVES ENEWD ALONG THIS FEATURE....SO POPS RAISED TO CHC
SAT/SAT NGT...AND SLIGHT POPS INTRODUCED SUN. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD-COVER AND NWLY LLVL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NRML THIS
WKEND.  HIPRES BUILDS IN ERY NEXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

DUR TO SVR TSTM OVR NRN BALT CITY HV ISSUED 25G50KT FOR MTN.

FNT SHUD BE E OF TERMINALS BY MRNG PUSH WED...SO HV WNWLY WNDS.
THERE MAY BE MORE TSTMS...BUT AM EQUALLY UNCERTAIN AS TO IMPACT.
HV OPTED TO INCL IN INTL TAFS /BWI/IAD/ AFTR 18Z.

VFR CONDS WED NGT THRU ERY FRI AS HIPRES DOMINATES. NW WINDS OF 5-15
KTS WED NGT/THU WILL BCM LGT/VRBL THU NGT THEN SLY FRI.  CDFNT
APPROACHES FRI AFTN AND PASSES TERMINALS FRI NGT. SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT MAY BRING LOCALIZED BUT SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. FRONT WILL STALL ACRS SRN VA
THIS WKEND...LEAVING MID-ATLC WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-COVER AND LOW
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
SLY CHANNELING TNGT IS PRODUCING GUSTS INTO THE U TEENS ON THE
BAY...SCA IN EFFECT.

FNT WL STALL OUT NEAR WATERS OVNGT...AND WL ONLY SLOWLY LIMP EWD
TMRW. THEREFORE...MAY HV DIURNAL LULL IN ACTIVITY...BUT ADDTL
STORMS XPCTD.

NW WINDS BEHIND CDFNT MAY REACH JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLD WED
NGT/THU...BEFORE HIPRES THU NGT CAUSES DIMINISHING WINDS. CHC
SHWRS/TSTMS LATE FRI THRU SAT AS CDFNT PASSES. SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS
MAY BE NEEDED DURG THIS PERIOD FOR STRONG ACTIVITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TMRW MRNGS TIDE REMAINS QSTNBL. WL NEED TO SEE IF WINDS DO PICK UP
LATER TDA...PUSHING MORE WATER INTO ESTUARY. IF SO...THEN AN ADVY
FOR SENSITIVE LOCATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-538-
     542.

&&

UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
844 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
151445-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
844 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE
WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY...BALTIMORE HARBOR
SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG
THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF BALTIMORE
HARBOR.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
PROVIDING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. PLEASE RELAY ANY
REPORTS OF STORM DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-151445-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
844 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
PROVIDING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
810 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

MDZ005-006-150045-
CARROLL MD-NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
810 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT CARROLL AND NORTHERN BALTIMORE
COUNTIES...

AT 811 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER REESE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE HAMPSTEAD AND MANCHESTER.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3966 7662 3946 7693 3950 7704 3973 7690
      3973 7673
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 217DEG 15KT 3954 7693

BJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
858 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             2 SE WESTMINSTER        39.56N  76.98W
08/14/2012  E0.88 INCH       CARROLL            MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201084

CJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
945 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     HAIL             PIKESVILLE              39.39N  76.71W
08/14/2012  M0.88 INCH       BALTIMORE          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL NEAR STEVENSON RD AND I-695

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201085

KLW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
948 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

MDZ004>006-150215-
FREDERICK MD-CARROLL MD-NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
948 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT FREDERICK...CARROLL AND NORTHERN
BALTIMORE COUNTIES...

AT 949 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER UNIONVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE WESTMINSTER...GAMBER AND MANCHESTER.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN BRING DOWN LARGE TREE BRANCHES.
TAKE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3949 7679 3933 7722 3956 7738 3973 7712
      3973 7692
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 245DEG 23KT 3950 7715

BJL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1006 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TOWSON                  39.40N  76.62W
08/14/2012                   BALTIMORE          MD   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SWIFTWATER RESCUES ONGOING IN TOWSON

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201086

WOODY!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1011 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     HAIL             1 SW PERRY HALL         39.39N  76.50W
08/14/2012  M1.00 INCH       BALTIMORE          MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201087

WOODY!