Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
640 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN STALL TO
THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SVRL WRNGS HV BEEN ISSUED IN VCNTY I-81 AND W THIS AFTN. ATTM
STORMS APPEAR TO BE WKNG WHILE PROGRESSING E OF THE MTNS - HV BEEN
MONITORING THE IAD VWP ALL AFTN/EVE AND WIND FIELD IS GNRLY 10 KT
OR LESS THRU 10K FT. THIS DOES NOT LEAD ITSELF TO THE STORMS
INCRSG IN INTENSITY...BUT OUR RDR OPERATOR IS KEEPING BOTH EYES ON
THE SCREEN.

OVERALL STAYED WARM ON TEMPS DUE TO SLOW PROGRESS OF SFC FNT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TROF AXIS MOVES E OF CWA WED NGT...BRINGING RAPID END TO ANY LINGER
PCPN FROM WED EVE. SHRTWV RDGG DOMINATES THU/THU NGT...BRINGING
MOSTLY CLR SKIES...SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS...AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES.

FRI...SLY FLOW RETURNS AS M/ULVL TROF DEEPENS OVR GREAT LAKES AND
CDFNT APPROACHES CNTRL APLCNS. 12Z GUIDANCE DELAYS FWD PROGRESS OF
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL HEATING. MAXIMA FCST
AROUND 90F...AND AT LEAST MDT INSTABILITY SHUD COMBINE WITH DECENT
BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CNVCTN ALONG AND AHEAD OF CDFNT FRI
AFTN/EVE. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE STRONG/SVR...THO TIMING OF FROPA AND
DEGREE OF PRE-FRONTAL CLOUD-COVER WILL BE FACTORS IN EXTENT OF SVR
RISK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CDFNT SAGS SWD FRI NGT AND WILL BE S OF CWA SAT AND SUN...AFTER
STALLING ACRS SRN VA. SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG BNDRY MAY SPREAD NWD INTO
CWA AS WAVES ENEWD ALONG THIS FEATURE....SO POPS RAISED TO CHC
SAT/SAT NGT...AND SLIGHT POPS INTRODUCED SUN. CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD-COVER AND NWLY LLVL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NRML THIS
WKEND.  HIPRES BUILDS IN ERY NEXT WK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

IF TSRA WERE REALIZED THIS EVE...XPCT BRIEF IFR VSBYS AND REDUCED
CIGS...LASTING MAYBE 30 MIN.

MAY SEE SOME FOG OVNGT...SPCLY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
RAIN. HARD TO PINPOINT THAT ATTM. DEWPTS MAY BE RATHER HIGH OVNGT...
AND WNDS LGT. HV TAKEN MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR MOST TAFS.

FNT SHUD BE E OF TERMINALS BY MRNG PUSH WED...SO HV WNWLY WNDS.
THERE MAY BE MORE TSTMS...BUT AM EQUALLY UNCERTAIN AS TO IMPACT. HV
OPTED TO INCL IN INTL TAFS /BWI/IAD/ AFTR 18Z.

VFR CONDS WED NGT THRU ERY FRI AS HIPRES DOMINATES. NW WINDS OF 5-15
KTS WED NGT/THU WILL BCM LGT/VRBL THU NGT THEN SLY FRI.  CDFNT
APPROACHES FRI AFTN AND PASSES TERMINALS FRI NGT. SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT MAY BRING LOCALIZED BUT SIGNIFICANT FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. FRONT WILL STALL ACRS SRN VA
THIS WKEND...LEAVING MID-ATLC WITH SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-COVER AND LOW
CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
WNDS HV BEEN LGT/VRBL THUS FAR...BUT PAST CPL HRS HV RESULTED IN
BETTER ORGANIZATION AS INFLOW TO MESOLOW DVLPS. THUS SELY 10 KT
COMMON. STILL HV OPPORTUNITY FOR SLY CHANNELING TAFTN-TNGT...SO HVNT
DISTURBED SCA. WL BE WAITING...BUT WL BE PREPARED TO DROP IT IF
DISRUPTED BY TSRA.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...AMS UNSTBL ENUF FOR SCT-NMRS TSRA TAFTN-EVNG AS
CDFNT APPCHS WATERS. CERTAINLY WL HV GUSTY WNDS INVOF STORMS. SVRL
SMW/S ANTICIPATED. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF WATERSPOUT EITHER.

FNT WL STALL OUT NEAR WATERS OVNGT...AND WL ONLY SLOWLY LIMP EWD
TMRW. THEREFORE...MAY HV DIURNAL LULL IN ACTIVITY...BUT ADDTL STORMS
XPCTD.

NW WINDS BEHIND CDFNT MAY REACH JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLD WED
NGT/THU...BEFORE HIPRES THU NGT CAUSES DIMINISHING WINDS. CHC
SHWRS/TSTMS LATE FRI THRU SAT AS CDFNT PASSES. SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS
MAY BE NEEDED DURG THIS PERIOD FOR STRONG ACTIVITY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

TMRW MRNGS TIDE REMAINS QSTNBL. WL NEED TO SEE IF WINDS DO PICK UP
LATER TDA...PUSHING MORE WATER INTO ESTUARY. IF SO...THEN AN ADVY
FOR SENSITIVE LOCATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530-538-
     542.

&&

UPDATE...WOODY!
PRVS...HTS/SBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
244 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
151000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
244 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE
WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY...BALTIMORE HARBOR
SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG
THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF BALTIMORE
HARBOR.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
PROVIDING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-151000-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
244 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL MARYLAND AS WELL AS NEAR
WASHINGTON DC.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
PROVIDING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

HTS/KONARIK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
744 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

MDZ005-006-150015-
CARROLL MD-NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
744 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT CARROLL AND NORTHERN BALTIMORE
COUNTIES...

AT 744 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MANCHESTER...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE MILLERS...LINEBORO AND FREELAND.

PENNY-SIZE TO NICKEL-SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 7660 3972 7660 3962 7694 3971 7703
      3973 7699
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 241DEG 11KT 3967 7688

BJL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
746 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

VAZ029-037>040-050-051-150030-
ORANGE VA-RAPPAHANNOCK VA-GREENE VA-CULPEPER VA-MADISON VA-PAGE VA-
ALBEMARLE VA-
746 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ORANGE...RAPPAHANNOCK...GREENE...
CULPEPER...MADISON...PAGE AND ALBEMARLE COUNTIES...

AT 746 PM EDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES WEST OF ETLAN TO WOLFTOWN TO RUCKERSVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ORANGE AND CULPEPER.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3814 7853 3834 7842 3860 7840 3867 7790
      3841 7792 3820 7803
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 260DEG 24KT 3853 7829 3836 7830
          3823 7837

BJL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
754 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

VAZ025-026-150030-
ROCKINGHAM VA-AUGUSTA VA-
754 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT ROCKINGHAM AND AUGUSTA COUNTIES...

AT 755 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
MOSCOW...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BRIDGEWATER...GROTTOES AND HARRISONBURG.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3846 7886 3821 7881 3824 7928 3838 7928
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 266DEG 19KT 3831 7918

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
806 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             3 WSW LINEBORO          39.71N  76.90W
08/14/2012  E0.75 INCH       CARROLL            MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1201083

CJL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
810 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

MDZ005-006-150045-
CARROLL MD-NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
810 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT CARROLL AND NORTHERN BALTIMORE
COUNTIES...

AT 811 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER REESE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE HAMPSTEAD AND MANCHESTER.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3966 7662 3946 7693 3950 7704 3973 7690
      3973 7673
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 217DEG 15KT 3954 7693

BJL