Severe Thunderstorm Warning 268, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
346 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MIDWEEK. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 564 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM. THE
LINE PUSHING EAST FROM THE BLUE RIDGE IS THE PRIMARY ACTIVITY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. 18Z KIAD RAOB SHOWS 1800 SBCAPE...SUGGESTS UP TO
2500 MLCAPE. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST...BUT SOME 50
KT WINDS HAVE BEEN SAMPLED BY KLWX/TIAD BELOW 50 KT. LACK OF SHEAR
HAS LIMITED MCS DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A COLD
POOL WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS EAST...HENCE
THE WATCH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS MIXING TO THE
SURFACE. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND MORE
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY BUILT
UP THROUGH THE DAY IS REALIZED. RADAR VELOCITIES AROUND 40KT ARE
ALREADY PRESENT IN SOME OF THESE STORMS AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PRESENT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
MOVE WELL TO THE CWA/S NORTH...IT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL ALSO ENHANCE THIS LIFT AND CAUSE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH
TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL SLOW THEN STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA AS IT NEARS THE COAST ENABLING PRECIP TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY. DAYTIME TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AS
WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW ESPECIALLY IF
SOME CLEAR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOP. HOWEVER...BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE
VA/NC BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIPRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE OH VLY MON NGT. SLIGHT PRESSURE
RISES AND A WEAK NWLY SURGE ON THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA MON NGT. THERE ARE DOUBTS WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE
PUSH OF DRIER SFC AIR MAKES IT MON NGT...WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW
MUCH TEMPS CAN DROP OVNGT AND IF WE CAN GET SOME RELIEF FROM THE
WARM/MUGGY NGTS.

THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE WRN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGIONS TUE
AND WED. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ELONGATED MID-LVL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH MEANDERS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND SRN VA AS
DOWNSTREAM PROGRESSION IS BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE. WITH SUBSIDENCE
FROM THIS TROUGH OVER THE AREA...MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY
TUE. ANY NWD TREND IN THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER...WOULD PUT CENTRAL
VA AND SRN MD IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS. ISO
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP WED AFTN IN RESPONSE TO HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE RETURN.

MAX TEMPS GENERALLY 85-90F TUE WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
WED. MIN TEMPS TUE AND WED NGTS RANGE NEAR 60 IN THE WRN
HIGHLANDS TO LOWER 70S IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALONG CHSPK BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS LATE THIS WEEK
WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS FCST TO DIG SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...RESULTING IN AMPLIFICATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROUGH.

A RESIDUAL WARM-FRONT BOUNDARY AND/OR LEADING SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH MAY PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY LIFT FOR AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS THU. UNCERTAINTY OF THE
EVOLUTION OF THESE SMALL-SCALE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT WILL PRECLUDE
ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 20-30 POPS IN THE THU FCST. BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FRI AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. THREAT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO HWO IN
FUTURE SHIFTS ONCE DETAILS IN THE FCST BECOME CLEARER.

PRECIP CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO SAT IF THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AS IT
APPROACHES THE ERN SEABOARD. PREFER A SLOWER SOLUTION OF FROPA GIVEN
HOW AMPLIFIED THE PATTERN WILL BE AND THAT IT IS SUMMER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR TERMINALS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. DEVELOPING LINE OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF BLUE RIDGE
COULD REDUCE VSBY BRIEFLY TO IFR LEVELS THROUGH THE EARLY EVE. LOW
CIGS AROUND 3-4 KFT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND MONDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR CHO...BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MON EVE.

ASIDE FROM PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG DURING THE ERY MRNG HRS...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MIDWEEK. AN ISO TSTM IS POSSIBLE WED.

&&

.MARINE...
DEVELOPING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD 40
TO 50 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. SERIOUSLY RETHINK EVENING BOATING PLANS.

A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA UNTIL 8 PM TONIGHT
AND FOR THE MIDDLE/LOWER MD CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC
UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT.
WIND WILL DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AFTER A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.

WINDS BELOW SCA LVLS THRU MIDWEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.

&&

UPDATE...JACKSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
334 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
060930-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
334 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM FOR THE OUTLOOK
AREA. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE
MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER MARYLAND BAY...AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED FOR REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-060930-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
334 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM FOR EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE AND AUGUSTA/ROCKINGHAM. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS
DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED FOR REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

JACKSON

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