Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
320 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...
COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH HOT AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK...AND MOIST AND INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER ROLLING PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY AGAINST MUCH
OF THE CAP-ROCK FROM ABOUT DICKENS COUNTY NORTHWARD. WE ARE
EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. NOT MUCH REALLY HAS CHANGED SO
WILL NOT ELABORATE FURTHER. OTHERWISE...STORM CHANCES WILL GENERALLY
SLIDE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A TENDENCY FOR OUTFLOW TO TRY TO PUSH SOME DEVELOPMENT A
BIT FURTHER WEST EARLY THIS EVENING. NO BIG CHANGE AGAIN FROM THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. SURFACE LOW WILL EDGE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE EVENING.
MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THURSDAY SHOULD BEGIN CLOUDY MOST
AREAS WHILE THE COMBINATION OF THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND THE COLD
FRONT ADVANCING FAR TO THE SOUTH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITIES
LATE IN THE DAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AS WELL EARLY THURSDAY IN
PARTICULAR. THIN SMOKE PLUME EDGING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY MINOR RESTRICTIONS TODAY AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY...WILL
MOSTLY DISSIPATE AFTER FRONTAL PUSH. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE EXTENDED FORECAST
LATE THIS WORK WEEK...GRADUALLY BACKING TO NEAR ZONAL BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...COOL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY WILL ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO
COMMENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY. IMPROVED MOISTURE
LEVELS EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM...COUPLED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH GLIDING BY WELL TO THE NORTH...WILL INCREASE THE PROBABILITY
OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND TOWARD THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT /VERSUS THURSDAY NIGHT/. NW/N ZONES STAND THE BEST
CHANCE OF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO THE CWA LATE FRIDAY
AND HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THERE ACCORDINGLY.
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/FRONT MAY
FOLLOW...SETTING UP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A DIFFUSE DRYLINE TRAILING IT OFF TO THE SOUTH.
THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...COUPLED WITH PERHAPS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SPILLING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...MAY BE THE IMPETUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTN/EVNG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE RATHER TAME...BUT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE LOCALLY. EXPECT
THE RESIDUAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT TO RETREAT NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY
AS WEAK MID/UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WEST TEXAS WITHIN A RIDGE
THAT AMPLIFIES IN ADVANCE OF A WESTERN TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OR MUCH OF THE FA AND WITH SOME
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE...COULD NOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT...LOCATION AND COVERAGE PRECLUDE MORE THAN POPS OF 10-15
PERCENT EACH AFTN/EVNG ATTM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
FRIDAY...BUT WILL QUICKLY JUMP WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...WHERE THEY WILL STAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  76  51  83  59 /  20  10  10  10  20
TULIA         60  77  52  83  61 /  20  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     61  78  52  83  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     60  81  56  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       64  81  55  84  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   59  83  59  86  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    61  82  58  85  63 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     65  83  55  83  64 /  50  10  10  10  20
SPUR          65  83  55  86  65 /  30  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     68  85  58  87  66 /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1100 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

TXZ021>044-311600-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1100 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL
BE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A TENNIS BALL AND WIND GUSTS OF
ABOVE 60 MPH...WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING.