Small Craft Advisory 31, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
920 PM PST SUN MAR 4 2012

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY...BRINGING
COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. ON TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS INTERIOR CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN STRONG
WINDS...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOME LIGHT LOW ELEVATION
SNOWFALL ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WED)...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH MODERATE
OFFSHORE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE TO GENERATE RECORD HEAT ACROSS THE
SOUTHLAND TODAY. ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...FIVE RECORDS WERE
BROKEN...WITH LONG BEACH REPORTING THE HIGHEST READING AT 91
DEGREES! OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE
DISTRICT...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY...WITH HEIGHT FALLS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO TREND
ONSHORE ON MONDAY. AREAS NEAR THE COAST WILL SEE THE MOST DRASTIC
COOLING ON MONDAY DUE TO THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE SEA BREEZE.
INLAND AREAS WILL ALSO SEE SOME COOLING AS COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT
WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S.

TAKING A GLANCE AHEAD AT TUESDAY SYSTEM...00Z NAM IS TRENDING TOWARDS
A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. IF THIS SOLUTION WERE TO PAN OUT...THERE WOULD BE A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT 00Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BEFORE
MAKING ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO POP FORECAST FOR TUESDAY. FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING THAT BEST THREAT
OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH FACING MOUNTAINS. PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
THICKNESS VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 530 DM...COULD SEE SNOW LEVELS AS
LOW AS 2500 FEET ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING POTENTIAL SNOW
IMPACTS TO INTERSTATE 5 NEAR THE GRAPEVINE...INTERSTATE 14 THROUGH
SOLEDAD CANYON...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE...SO ANY
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE 3 INCHES OR LESS.

CURRENT WIND FORECASTS LOOK ON TRACK. HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR
POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED FOR OTHER PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO EVENT...WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50
MPH COMMON ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS. WILL BE ISSUING SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS COLD WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH MAJOR
IMPACTS BEING STRONG WINDS AND LOW SNOW LEVELS.

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT ALSO BEING ISSUED DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH VERY STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS.

*** FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

AS QUICK AS THIS SYSTEM COMES IN...IT QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WED INTO
ARIZONA AND THE 4 CORNERS REGION. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WARMING ENSUES.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
ALL MEDIUM RANGE MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA AND HOLD THRU SAT. AT THE SAME TIME AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SET UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE WINDS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL WARM ABOVE NORMAL BY THU AND THEN KEEP
CLIMBING THROUGH SAT. MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF TAKING ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO THE PACNW WHILE
THE GFS AND ENSEMBLES HOLD AN OPEN TROUGH OUT BEYOND 130W. BOTTOM
LINE WITH ANY SOLUTION IS THAT COOLING AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
RETURN FOR SUN AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

04/2340Z

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAFS.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF THROUGH 04Z. AN INCREASING CHC OF
MVFR CIGS AFTER 04Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX)
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/MORRIS
AVIATION...ASR
SYNOPSIS...RAT

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 PM PST SUN MAR 4 2012

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-051400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
315 PM PST SUN MAR 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MARCH
SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH SOUTHERN CA. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. A GALE FORCE WIND OUTLOOK AND A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

* HIGH WIND WATCH............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WATCH...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

TRM