Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Chicago, IL

599 
WWUS53 KLOT 190349
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1049 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

INC089-127-190430-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-120719T0430Z/
PORTER IN-LAKE IN-
1049 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
LAKE AND PORTER COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1048 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM PORTER TO VALPARAISO TO HEBRON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BEVERLY SHORES...TOWN OF PINES AND MALDEN AROUND 1055 PM CDT.
  KOUTS AROUND 1100 PM CDT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE 
A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

&&

LAT...LON 4171 8693 4123 8693 4123 8696 4129 8712
      4127 8716 4134 8745 4154 8725 4162 8725
      4163 8719 4166 8715 4165 8712 4173 8690
TIME...MOT...LOC 0349Z 283DEG 30KT 4163 8705 4145 8704
          4130 8718
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

IZZI

354 
WWUS53 KLOT 190414
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1114 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

INC089-190424-
/O.CAN.KLOT.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-120719T0430Z/
LAKE IN-
1114 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012


...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST LAKE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4123 8696 4129 8712 4127 8717 4128 8721
      4137 8722 4158 8710 4165 8712 4172 8694
      4123 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 283DEG 30KT 4167 8691 4150 8686
          4138 8701 4127 8722

$$

INC127-190430-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-120719T0430Z/
PORTER IN-
1114 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTER COUNTY
UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1112 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM TOWN OF PINES TO WESTVILLE TO MALDEN TO HEBRON...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...
  KOUTS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF 
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4123 8696 4129 8712 4127 8717 4128 8721
      4137 8722 4158 8710 4165 8712 4172 8694
      4123 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 283DEG 30KT 4167 8691 4150 8686
          4138 8701 4127 8722
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

IZZI

926 
WWUS53 KLOT 190429
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1129 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

INC127-190440-
/O.EXP.KLOT.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-120719T0430Z/
PORTER IN-
1129 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012


...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PORTER COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4123 8696 4129 8712 4127 8717 4128 8721
      4137 8722 4158 8710 4165 8712 4172 8694
      4123 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0430Z 283DEG 30KT 4164 8674 4147 8669
          4135 8684 4124 8705

$$

IZZI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1010 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
558 PM CDT

CONVECTION FIRING ALONG FRONT/STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN HAS INDEED CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AND HAVE BEGUN
TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. STORMS TO THE EAST/COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY APPEAR TO BE ROOTED NEAR ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO BE
INGESTING THE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...WHICH IS RESULTING IN STRONG
SHEAR PROFILES MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. BUNKERS
RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELL VECTORS SUGGEST WELL ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS
WOULD PUSH SSE AT ABOUT 20KT...AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY PROPAGATION DEVELOPING WITH THE INTENSE CELL IN ROCK
COUNTY. A SSE MOTION WOULD ALSO TEND TO KEEP STORM FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH COULD RESULT IN IT RIDING VERY NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND REAPING THE BENEFITS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY
NEAR THE FRONT.

WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR STORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AS THEY COULD DEVELOP SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE STRONGER
SHEAR PROFILES NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP TORNADO THREAT VERY LOW...THOUGH IF
MESOCYCLONE CAN RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE TORNADO THREAT MAY NOT
BE AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE REAR INFLOW JET APPARENT ON KMKX WITH SW
WI CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THAT CLUSTER ON A MORE
EASTWARD TRAJECTORY AND EITHER NORTH OF JUST BARELY INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE WI/IL BORDER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
LOWER AND CONFINED MAINLY TO A ROGUE WET MICROBURST TYPE SCENARIO.

IZZI

&&

.DISCUSSION...
333 PM CDT

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA.  A VERY WARM...HUMID AIRMASS INTERACTING WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE AREA HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.  EVEN THOUGH THE FREEZING LEVEL IS QUITE HIGH...ARND
16KFT...THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG...THAT SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME SEVERE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.  IN ADDITION...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...
BRIEF...HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...BUT SINCE DEEP LAYER WINDS
SPEEDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP STORMS MOVING AT 20 TO 25
MPH...SO FLASH FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AT SUNSET.  FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE COLD FRONT
GOING STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM NWRN IL THROUGH CNTRL
INDIANA...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR MORE ISOLD TO SCT
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  AN OLD MCV OVER ERN IOWA AND AN
ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT ENEWD THROUGH NERN IOWA AND
ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER OVERNIGHT.  THIS MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND WILL CARRY HIGHER END CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF ILLINOIS.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS RECENT DAYS...WITH
PREVAILING NELY WINDS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH LOCATIONS
WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARMER
SIDE...LIKELY REACHING ONLY THE UPPER 80S.  LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE COOLER AS BREEZY NELY WINDS LIMIT THE LAKEFRONT TO THE
LOWER 80S.  PCPN CHANCES SHOULD END OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS SWRD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP ANY PCPN CHANCES AT BAY WHILE THE 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES SPREAD BACK OVER THE CWA.  THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT
SHOULD BE SPARED THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM...LIMITING
THE LAKEFRONT TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S.  THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.  THE WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY REACHING
THE MIDDLE 90S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE
BRUTALLY HUMID OVER THE WEEKEND.  SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
ONLY THE MIDDLE 60S WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO CUT OFF FROM THE LOCAL
AREA BY A RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WWD
ACROSS THE NRN GULF TO SERN TX.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RETURN OF EXTREME HEAT AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY.  THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL BUILD OUT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WHILE WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS SHIFTS THE WRN EXTEND OF THE BERMUDA HIGH A LITTLE TO
THE EAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SWLY...LEADING TO A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.  THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR IS ADVERTISING 850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
25F FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 90S AND APPROACHING 100F AGAIN.  GIVEN THE GOOD TRACK
RECORD OF THE ECMWF...HAVE LEANED CLOSE TO THAT SOLUTION...AND ONCE
AGAIN...HAVE THROWN OUT THE GFS WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
COOL/WET BIAS.  THE OTHER LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HPC
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ADDING
CONFIDENCE TO THE IDEA OF A RETURN OF EXTREME HEAT FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE LOW...THOUGH AN
OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A
FLEETING CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...

* TSRA THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
* SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS/CHANGES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* STRONG/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MID/LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
  THURSDAY EVENING.
* MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER...CIGS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
  CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 03Z...

LINE OF TSRA PUSHING THROUGH THE CHICAGO AREA LATE THIS EVENING
WITH MEASURED GUSTS IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS IN THE NEXT HR OR SO BUT
ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHWEST IL WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS THOUGH
CONFIDENCE REGARDING COVERAGE/TIMING REMAIN UNCLEAR. CMS

PREVIOUS 00Z DISCUSSION...

SQUALL LINE RAPIDLY MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI WITH ISOLATED
TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER. THE
INDIVIDUAL/ISOLATED TSRA ARE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN
LINE MAY ALSO TURN EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHER ISOLATED TSRA
DEVELOPING NEAR RPJ AND C09. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW
ABOUT TSRA AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS...OPTED TO CONTINUE VCTS THIS
EVENING SINCE OVERALL COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AND UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SQUALL LINE TO THE NORTH. AFTER THIS EVENING...TRENDS
ARE TOO UNCLEAR TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL MENTION OF TSRA BUT
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AROUND SUNRISE REMAINS A TIME PERIOD OF
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL TSRA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL THURSDAY MORNING. ITS
EXACT TRACK WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS
AND SHIFTS. BUT IT APPEARS NORTHEAST/EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE TO START...WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING THEN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT THEN VRB WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT WESTERLY THURSDAY
MORNING...LIKELY IN THE 10-15KT RANGE...PERHAPS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
AS THE LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WITH A LAKE BREEZE LIKELY.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE TURNING NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SWING AROUND NORTHEASTERLY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. AS WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE...COOLER AIR RUNNING INTO
THE MOIST AIR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUDS...
LIKELY AT LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
WILL NEED TO REFINE THIS WITH LATER FORECASTS. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REGARDING TSRA CHANCES/TIMING/COVERAGE OVER
  THE NEXT FEW HRS...THEN LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS SHIFTS/DIRECTIONS
  THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
  CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
* TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
348 PM CDT

A BIT OF A COMPLEX MARINE FORECAST AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER IOWA FORCES A STALLED OUT FRONT CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE
LAKE BACK INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE AND HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY...THE
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH OF THE LAKE AGAIN...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTH. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AND BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST AGAIN
TOMORROW AND INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE LAKE BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES...BUT REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

RC

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
414 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
192115-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
414 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012 /514 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES UNTIL SUNSET.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME MAY BECOME
  SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH THROUGH EARLY
  EVENING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH
  OF A LINE FROM MENDOTA TO KANKAKEE IN ILLINOIS...AND TO GIFFORD
  IN INDIANA.  THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD DROP BELOW 100F BY 700 PM.

  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY
  EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE
  ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROCKFORD...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
  POTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...TO RENSSELAER. THESE STORMS
  MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HAIL TO
  THE SIZE OF PENNIES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS TO
  REACH SEVERE LIMITS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND
  HAIL TO 1 INCH.

  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
  THE NIGHT BUT THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
  LEVELS.

  DISCUSSION:

  A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
  BUT PROGRESS IS SLOWING AND SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
  TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
  THE FRONT WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
  SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. WIND GUSTS
  WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES. GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE LIKELY
  WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS PRODUCING
  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND 1 INCH HAIL. STORMS SHOULD
  WEAKEN WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE
  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE
  NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
THURSDAY WITH CHANCES DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 88 AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA SHORES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-192115-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
414 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THURSDAY...CONTINUING OVER THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-192115-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
414 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

KREIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
950 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     FLOOD            EVANSTON                42.05N 87.69W
07/18/2012                   COOK               IL   PUBLIC

            WATER A COUPLE INCHES DEEP AT SHERIDAN AND KEENEY ROADS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
951 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LIBERTYVILLE            42.28N 87.97W
07/18/2012  M1.04 INCH       LAKE               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            1.04 INCHES STORM TOTAL WITH 0.67 INCH IN 15 MINUTES.
            LIBERTYVILLE FD REPORTS FLOODING ON ROUTE 21 AND
            WINCHESTER RD

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1007 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     TSTM WND GST     INVERNESS               42.12N 88.10W
07/18/2012  E70 MPH          COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

0938 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W GURNEE              42.38N 87.98W
07/18/2012  E1.05 INCH       LAKE               IL   COCORAHS

            1.05 INCHES IN 35 MINUTES.

0925 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ELGIN                   42.04N 88.29W
07/18/2012  E1.05 INCH       KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.05 INCHES IN 20 MINUTES.

0925 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELGIN                   42.04N 88.29W
07/18/2012                   KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE WIND GUSTS AT 50 TO 60 MPH DOWNING SMALL TREE
            BRANCHES.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1013 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE WINNETKA          42.10N 87.72W
07/18/2012  M2.30 INCH       COOK               IL   COCORAHS

            2.30 INCHES RAINFALL IN 60 MINUTES. STILL RAINING. MINOR
            FLOODING.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1025 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CAROL STREAM            41.92N 88.13W
07/18/2012  M1.07 INCH       DUPAGE             IL   COCORAHS

            1.07 INCHES IN 55 MINUTES.

1015 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LAKE VILLA              42.42N 88.08W
07/18/2012  M1.70 INCH       LAKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR. MEASURED AT IL-83 AND IL-132. REPORT
            RELAYED BY LAKE COUNTY EMA.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1026 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW COAL CITY         41.34N 88.31W
07/18/2012  M51.00 MPH       GRUNDY             IL   NWS EMPLOYEE

0717 PM     HAIL             5 N POPLAR GROVE        42.44N 88.82W
07/18/2012  E0.88 INCH       BOONE              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT THE INTERSECTION OF POPLAR GROVE ROAD
            AND BLAINE ROAD REPORTED BY BELVIDERE POLICE VIA WIFR.

0745 PM     TSTM WND GST     PECATONICA              42.31N 89.36W
07/18/2012  M55.00 MPH       WINNEBAGO          IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            AT WREX TV STUDIOS.

0748 PM     TSTM WND GST     DURAND                  42.44N 89.33W
07/18/2012  M50.00 MPH       WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO HEAVY RAINFALL BRINGING VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO.
            NEAR DURAND ON HWY 75.

0757 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SW ROCKFORD AIRPORT   42.15N 89.17W
07/18/2012  E70.00 MPH       OGLE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH. SMALL BRANCHES DOWN.

0758 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOVES PARK              42.34N 89.01W
07/18/2012                   WINNEBAGO          IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            10 INCH TREE LIMB DOWN ON 700 BLOCK OF LOVES PARK DRIVE.
            TIME ESTIMATED.

0758 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOVES PARK              42.34N 89.01W
07/18/2012                   WINNEBAGO          IL   AIRPLANE PILOT

            8 INCH TREE LIMB DOWN ON 7800 BLOCK OF FOREST HILLS ROAD.
            TIME ESTIMATED.

0758 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E DURAND              42.44N 89.25W
07/18/2012                   WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN. WEST BOUND ON HWY 75 4 MILES EAST
            OF DURAND.

0800 PM     HAIL             5 NNW POLO              42.05N 89.62W
07/18/2012  E0.25 INCH       OGLE               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0806 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHERRY VALLEY           42.24N 88.96W
07/18/2012                   WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 65 MPH WINDS BROUGHT LARGE BRANCHES DOWN.

0807 PM     TSTM WND GST     MACHESNEY PARK          42.36N 89.04W
07/18/2012  E55.00 MPH       WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN PEA SIZED HAIL

0809 PM     FLOOD            ROCKFORD                42.27N 89.06W
07/18/2012                   WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            10 TO 12 INCHES OF WATER OVER INTERSECTION OF COURT AND
            WEST STATE DOWNTOWN ROCKFORD

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MACHESNEY PARK          42.36N 89.04W
07/18/2012                   WINNEBAGO          IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            20 TO 30 FOOT LONG / 6 INCH DIAMETER LIMB FEEL THROUGH
            ROOF OF HOUSE ON MILDRED ROAD.

0824 PM     HAIL             CAPRON                  42.40N 88.74W
07/18/2012  E0.75 INCH       BOONE              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL BUT NO PONDING.

0826 PM     FLOOD            ROCKFORD                42.27N 89.06W
07/18/2012                   WINNEBAGO          IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            FOUR INCHES OF FLOWING WATER REPORTED NEAR 7TH STREET AND
            BROADWAY IN ROCKFORD.

0830 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 N MARENGO             42.31N 88.60W
07/18/2012  M52.00 MPH       MCHENRY            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAWTHORN AND KISHWAUKEE ROADS

0834 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E HEBRON              42.47N 88.41W
07/18/2012                   MCHENRY            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 TO 6 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN ON RT 173 JUST EAST OF
            HERBON.

0840 PM     TSTM WND GST     DE KALB                 41.93N 88.75W
07/18/2012  E60.00 MPH       DE KALB            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            50-60 MPH WINDS ON INTERSTATE 88 NEAR UNIVERSITY ROAD
            EXIT.

0906 PM     FLOOD            LAKE VILLA              42.42N 88.08W
07/18/2012                   LAKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 INCHES OF STANDING WATER ON IL-59, 1/8 MILE NORTH OF
            PETITE LAKE ROAD. RELAYED BY LAKE COUNTY EMA.

0912 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARPENTERSVILLE         42.12N 88.27W
07/18/2012                   KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN AND 8 INCH TREE DOWN.

0915 PM     TSTM WND GST     ELGIN                   42.04N 88.29W
07/18/2012  M60.00 MPH       KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 PM     TSTM WND GST     INVERNESS               42.12N 88.10W
07/18/2012  E70.00 MPH       COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

0925 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ELGIN                   42.04N 88.29W
07/18/2012  E1.05 INCH       KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.05 INCHES IN 20 MINUTES.

0925 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ELGIN                   42.04N 88.29W
07/18/2012                   KANE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE WIND GUSTS AT 50 TO 60 MPH DOWNING SMALL TREE
            BRANCHES.

0925 PM     FLOOD            STREAMWOOD              42.02N 88.17W
07/18/2012                   COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ON FOREST COVE CT 1 MILE EAST OF IRVING PARK RD IL-59 5
            INCHES OF WATER GOING OVER CURBS.

0931 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E WINNEBAGO           42.27N 89.20W
07/18/2012  M1.40 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IL   PUBLIC

0932 PM     TSTM WND GST     SCHAUMBURG              42.03N 88.08W
07/18/2012  E65.00 MPH       COOK               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT BARRINGTON AND SCHAUMBURG ROADS. HEAVY RAINFALL.

0938 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W GURNEE              42.38N 87.98W
07/18/2012  E1.05 INCH       LAKE               IL   COCORAHS

            1.05 INCHES IN 35 MINUTES.

0944 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LIBERTYVILLE            42.28N 87.97W
07/18/2012  M1.04 INCH       LAKE               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            1.04 INCHES STORM TOTAL WITH 0.67 INCH IN 15 MINUTES.
            LIBERTYVILLE FD REPORTS FLOODING ON ROUTE 21 AND
            WINCHESTER RD

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GLENCOE                 42.13N 87.76W
07/18/2012                   COOK               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAZEL ROAD CLOSED UNDER VIADUCT BECAUSE OF HIGH WATER.
            TIME ESTIMATED.

0947 PM     FLOOD            EVANSTON                42.05N 87.69W
07/18/2012                   COOK               IL   PUBLIC

            WATER A COUPLE INCHES DEEP AT SHERIDAN AND KEENEY ROADS.

0955 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE WINNETKA          42.10N 87.72W
07/18/2012  M2.30 INCH       COOK               IL   COCORAHS

            2.30 INCHES RAINFALL IN 60 MINUTES. STILL RAINING. MINOR
            FLOODING.

1010 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CAROL STREAM            41.92N 88.13W
07/18/2012  M1.07 INCH       DUPAGE             IL   COCORAHS

            1.07 INCHES IN 55 MINUTES.

1014 PM     HEAVY SNOW       3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT     41.75N 87.79W
07/18/2012  M1.3 INCH        COOK               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            IN 20 MINUTES.

1015 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LAKE VILLA              42.42N 88.08W
07/18/2012  M1.70 INCH       LAKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SO FAR. MEASURED AT IL-83 AND IL-132. REPORT
            RELAYED BY LAKE COUNTY EMA.

&&

BN