Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Chicago, IL

279 
WWUS53 KLOT 190205
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
905 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

ILC031-043-089-097-111-190300-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-120719T0300Z/
KANE IL-MCHENRY IL-DUPAGE IL-LAKE IL-COOK IL-
905 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COOK...
SOUTHERN LAKE...DUPAGE...SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY AND KANE COUNTIES UNTIL
1000 PM CDT...

AT 858 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM LAKEWOOD TO WEST DUNDEE TO ELGIN TO SUGAR GROVE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WEST CHICAGO...STREAMWOOD...NORTH AURORA AND HOFFMAN ESTATES AROUND
  910 PM CDT.
  TOWER LAKES...SCHAUMBURG...ROSELLE AND CAROL STREAM AROUND 915 PM
  CDT.
  BARRINGTON...LAKE ZURICH...FOREST LAKE AND HAWTHORN WOODS AROUND
  920 PM CDT.
  PALATINE...KILDEER AND LONG GROVE AROUND 925 PM CDT.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF 
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4214 8774 4208 8767 4191 8762 4190 8760
      4184 8760 4176 8754 4174 8754 4162 8771
      4169 8803 4173 8803 4173 8819 4177 8837
      4187 8858 4196 8847 4219 8838 4225 8843
      4226 8781
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 300DEG 34KT 4221 8828 4207 8820
          4196 8825 4179 8843
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

IZZI

796 
WWUS53 KLOT 190218
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
918 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

ILC031-043-089-097-111-190300-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-120719T0300Z/
KANE IL-MCHENRY IL-DUPAGE IL-LAKE IL-COOK IL-
918 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COOK...
SOUTHERN LAKE...DUPAGE...SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY AND KANE COUNTIES UNTIL
1000 PM CDT...

AT 917 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM TOWER LAKES TO HOFFMAN ESTATES TO CAROL STREAM TO GENEVA...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FOREST LAKE...HAWTHORN WOODS...WINFIELD AND ROLLING MEADOWS AROUND
  925 PM CDT.
  LONG GROVE...VERNON HILLS...YORK CENTER AND WOOD DALE AROUND 930 PM
  CDT.
  BUFFALO GROVE...LINCOLNSHIRE...WHEELING AND SCHILLER PARK AROUND
  935 PM CDT.
  RIVERWOODS...DEERFIELD AND BANNOCKBURN AROUND 940 PM CDT.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

LAT...LON 4214 8774 4208 8767 4191 8762 4190 8760
      4184 8760 4176 8754 4174 8754 4162 8771
      4169 8803 4173 8803 4173 8819 4177 8837
      4187 8858 4196 8847 4219 8838 4225 8843
      4226 8781
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 297DEG 36KT 4224 8816 4207 8809
          4191 8814 4187 8836
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

IZZI

159 
WWUS53 KLOT 190233
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
933 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

ILC111-190243-
/O.CAN.KLOT.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-120719T0300Z/
MCHENRY IL-
933 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012


...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA...HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS REMAIN A THREAT. 

LAT...LON 4190 8823 4223 8810 4226 8781 4214 8774
      4208 8767 4191 8762 4190 8760 4184 8760
      4176 8754 4174 8754 4162 8771 4163 8773
      4169 8803 4173 8803 4173 8819 4177 8837
      4187 8858
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 297DEG 36KT 4217 8798 4201 8791
          4185 8796 4177 8807

$$

ILC031-043-089-097-190300-
/O.CON.KLOT.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-120719T0300Z/
KANE IL-DUPAGE IL-LAKE IL-COOK IL-
933 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COOK...
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE...DUPAGE AND SOUTHERN KANE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM
CDT...

AT 932 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM LONG GROVE TO DES PLAINES TO YORK CENTER TO LISLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  RIVERWOODS...DEERFIELD...BANNOCKBURN AND LAKE FOREST AROUND 940 PM
  CDT.
  NORTHBROOK...HIGHLAND PARK...WILLOW SPRINGS AND SUMMIT AROUND 945
  PM CDT.
  NORTHFIELD...WINNETKA...GLENCOE AND STICKNEY AROUND 950 PM CDT.
  WILMETTE...KENILWORTH AND WILMETTE HARBOR AROUND 955 PM CDT.


LAT...LON 4190 8823 4223 8810 4226 8781 4214 8774
      4208 8767 4191 8762 4190 8760 4184 8760
      4176 8754 4174 8754 4162 8771 4163 8773
      4169 8803 4173 8803 4173 8819 4177 8837
      4187 8858
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 297DEG 36KT 4217 8798 4201 8791
          4185 8796 4177 8807
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

IZZI

262 
WWUS53 KLOT 190257
SVSLOT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
957 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

ILC031-043-089-097-190307-
/O.EXP.KLOT.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-120719T0300Z/
KANE IL-DUPAGE IL-LAKE IL-COOK IL-
957 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012


...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COOK 
COUNTY HAS BEEN REISSUED UNTIL 11 PM CDT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAKE...DUPAGE AND 
SOUTHERN KANE COUNTIES IS BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

PLEASE REFER TO THAT BULLETIN FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 4190 8823 4223 8810 4226 8781 4214 8774
      4208 8767 4191 8762 4190 8760 4184 8760
      4176 8754 4174 8754 4162 8771 4163 8773
      4169 8803 4173 8803 4173 8819 4177 8837
      4187 8858
TIME...MOT...LOC 0257Z 297DEG 36KT 4206 8769 4190 8762
          4174 8768 4166 8779

$$

IZZI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
704 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
558 PM CDT

CONVECTION FIRING ALONG FRONT/STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN HAS INDEED CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AND HAVE BEGUN
TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS. STORMS TO THE EAST/COOL SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY APPEAR TO BE ROOTED NEAR ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO BE
INGESTING THE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS...WHICH IS RESULTING IN STRONG
SHEAR PROFILES MORE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. BUNKERS
RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELL VECTORS SUGGEST WELL ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS
WOULD PUSH SSE AT ABOUT 20KT...AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY PROPAGATION DEVELOPING WITH THE INTENSE CELL IN ROCK
COUNTY. A SSE MOTION WOULD ALSO TEND TO KEEP STORM FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH COULD RESULT IN IT RIDING VERY NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND REAPING THE BENEFITS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY
NEAR THE FRONT.

WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR STORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AS THEY COULD DEVELOP SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THE STRONGER
SHEAR PROFILES NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL RESULT IN A HIGHER THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE LIKELY TO KEEP TORNADO THREAT VERY LOW...THOUGH IF
MESOCYCLONE CAN RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE TORNADO THREAT MAY NOT
BE AS CLOSE TO ZERO AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE REAR INFLOW JET APPARENT ON KMKX WITH SW
WI CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THAT CLUSTER ON A MORE
EASTWARD TRAJECTORY AND EITHER NORTH OF JUST BARELY INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE WI/IL BORDER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE
LOWER AND CONFINED MAINLY TO A ROGUE WET MICROBURST TYPE SCENARIO.

IZZI

&&

.DISCUSSION...
333 PM CDT

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA.  A VERY WARM...HUMID AIRMASS INTERACTING WITH A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE AREA HAS TRIGGERED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.  EVEN THOUGH THE FREEZING LEVEL IS QUITE HIGH...ARND
16KFT...THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE
VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG...THAT SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME SEVERE.  THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.  IN ADDITION...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES...
BRIEF...HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY...BUT SINCE DEEP LAYER WINDS
SPEEDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP STORMS MOVING AT 20 TO 25
MPH...SO FLASH FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AT SUNSET.  FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE COLD FRONT
GOING STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM NWRN IL THROUGH CNTRL
INDIANA...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOCUS FOR MORE ISOLD TO SCT
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  AN OLD MCV OVER ERN IOWA AND AN
ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT ENEWD THROUGH NERN IOWA AND
ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER OVERNIGHT.  THIS MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND WILL CARRY HIGHER END CHANCE POPS
OVER THE NRN TIER COUNTIES OF ILLINOIS.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS RECENT DAYS...WITH
PREVAILING NELY WINDS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH LOCATIONS
WELL INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARMER
SIDE...LIKELY REACHING ONLY THE UPPER 80S.  LAKEFRONT LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE COOLER AS BREEZY NELY WINDS LIMIT THE LAKEFRONT TO THE
LOWER 80S.  PCPN CHANCES SHOULD END OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS SWRD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD KEEP ANY PCPN CHANCES AT BAY WHILE THE 90+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES SPREAD BACK OVER THE CWA.  THE IMMEDIATE LAKEFRONT
SHOULD BE SPARED THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM...LIMITING
THE LAKEFRONT TO TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S.  THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.  THE WARMING TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY REACHING
THE MIDDLE 90S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT BE
BRUTALLY HUMID OVER THE WEEKEND.  SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
ONLY THE MIDDLE 60S WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO CUT OFF FROM THE LOCAL
AREA BY A RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH EXTENDING WWD
ACROSS THE NRN GULF TO SERN TX.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RETURN OF EXTREME HEAT AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY.  THE LONGER RANGE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL BUILD OUT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WHILE WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS SHIFTS THE WRN EXTEND OF THE BERMUDA HIGH A LITTLE TO
THE EAST.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SWLY...LEADING TO A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST.  THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR IS ADVERTISING 850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
25F FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 90S AND APPROACHING 100F AGAIN.  GIVEN THE GOOD TRACK
RECORD OF THE ECMWF...HAVE LEANED CLOSE TO THAT SOLUTION...AND ONCE
AGAIN...HAVE THROWN OUT THE GFS WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
COOL/WET BIAS.  THE OTHER LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE HPC
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION...ADDING
CONFIDENCE TO THE IDEA OF A RETURN OF EXTREME HEAT FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE LOW...THOUGH AN
OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE NWLY FLOW MAY BRING A
FLEETING CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

KREIN

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...

* ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA THROUGH MID/LATE EVENING.
* SEVERAL WIND SHIFTS/CHANGES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
* STRONG/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MID/LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
  THURSDAY EVENING.
* MVFR...POSSIBLY LOWER...CIGS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
  CMS

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...

SQUALL LINE RAPIDLY MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI WITH ISOLATED
TSRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LINE ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER. THE
INDIVIDUAL/ISOLATED TSRA ARE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN
LINE MAY ALSO TURN EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT HR OR TWO. THOUGH
IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. OTHER ISOLATED TSRA
DEVELOPING NEAR RPJ AND C09. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW
ABOUT TSRA AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS...OPTED TO CONTINUE VCTS THIS
EVENING SINCE OVERALL COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AND UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SQUALL LINE TO THE NORTH. AFTER THIS EVENING...TRENDS
ARE TOO UNCLEAR TO INCLUDE ANY ADDITIONAL MENTION OF TSRA BUT
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AROUND SUNRISE REMAINS A TIME PERIOD OF
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL TSRA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IL THURSDAY MORNING. ITS
EXACT TRACK WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACTS ON SPECIFIC WIND DIRECTIONS
AND SHIFTS. BUT IT APPEARS NORTHEAST/EASTERLY WINDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE TO START...WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING THEN SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT THEN VRB WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT WESTERLY THURSDAY
MORNING...LIKELY IN THE 10-15KT RANGE...PERHAPS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
AS THE LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WITH A LAKE BREEZE LIKELY.
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE TURNING NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHERLY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SWING AROUND NORTHEASTERLY BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON. AS WINDS TURN OFF THE LAKE...COOLER AIR RUNNING INTO
THE MOIST AIR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUDS...
LIKELY AT LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE.
WILL NEED TO REFINE THIS WITH LATER FORECASTS. CMS

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...

* LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING TSRA CHANCES/TIMING/COVERAGE THROUGH
  THURSDAY MORNING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS SHIFTS/DIRECTIONS
  THROUGH THE PERIOD.
* LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING LOW CLOUDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
  CMS

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z...

* FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
* TUESDAY...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
348 PM CDT

A BIT OF A COMPLEX MARINE FORECAST AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER IOWA FORCES A STALLED OUT FRONT CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF THE
LAKE BACK INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE AND HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY...THE
FRONT WILL PUSH BACK SOUTH OF THE LAKE AGAIN...WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD SOUTH. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOME AND BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEAST AGAIN
TOMORROW AND INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
THE LAKE BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES...BUT REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT.

RC

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
414 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
192115-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
414 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012 /514 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES UNTIL SUNSET.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME MAY BECOME
  SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH THROUGH EARLY
  EVENING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH
  OF A LINE FROM MENDOTA TO KANKAKEE IN ILLINOIS...AND TO GIFFORD
  IN INDIANA.  THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD DROP BELOW 100F BY 700 PM.

  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY
  EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE
  ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROCKFORD...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
  POTIONS OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...TO RENSSELAER. THESE STORMS
  MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HAIL TO
  THE SIZE OF PENNIES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW STORMS TO
  REACH SEVERE LIMITS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND
  HAIL TO 1 INCH.

  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
  THE NIGHT BUT THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
  LEVELS.

  DISCUSSION:

  A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
  BUT PROGRESS IS SLOWING AND SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
  TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR
  THE FRONT WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
  SOUTH OF A ROCKFORD TO JOLIET TO RENSSELAER LINE. WIND GUSTS
  WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES. GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE LIKELY
  WITH A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS PRODUCING
  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND 1 INCH HAIL. STORMS SHOULD
  WEAKEN WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MORE
  THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STORMS ARE
  NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
THURSDAY WITH CHANCES DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 88 AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

THERE MAY BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA SHORES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-192115-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
414 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THURSDAY...CONTINUING OVER THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-192115-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
414 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE LATE
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

KREIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
805 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E DURAND              42.44N 89.25W
07/18/2012                   WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN. WEST BOUND ON HWY 75 4 MILES EAST
            OF DURAND.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
808 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     TSTM WND GST     MACHESNEY PARK          42.36N 89.04W
07/18/2012  E55 MPH          WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN PEA SIZED HAIL

&&

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
809 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     FLOOD            ROCKFORD                42.27N 89.06W
07/18/2012                   WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            10 TO 12 INCHES OF WATER OVER INTERSECTION OF COURT AND
            WEST STATE DOWNTOWN ROCKFORD

&&

IZZI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
812 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHERRY VALLEY           42.24N 88.96W
07/18/2012                   WINNEBAGO          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 65 MPH WINDS BROUGHT LARGE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
827 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MACHESNEY PARK          42.36N 89.04W
07/18/2012                   WINNEBAGO          IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            20 TO 30 FOOT LONG / 6 INCH DIAMETER LIMB FEEL THROUGH
            ROOF OF HOUSE ON MILDRED ROAD.

&&

BN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
839 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     FLOOD            ROCKFORD                42.27N 89.06W
07/18/2012                   WINNEBAGO          IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            FOUR INCHES OF FLOWING WATER REPORTED NEAR 7TH STREET AND
            BROADWAY IN ROCKFORD.

&&

BMD