Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
428 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 425 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2012

Severe T-storm Watch 495 has been expanded to include Scott,
Harrison, Bourbon, and Nicholas Counties.  Now all of our area
along and north of a line from Casey County to Larue County to
Hancock County in KY and southern Indiana are under the watch.  The
watch was issued due to ongoing severe convection and anticipated
new development over southern Indiana and north central KY later
this evening.  The watch goes through 11 pm EDT...10 pm CDT.
Products out shortly.

&&

.Short Term (Tonight - Friday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2012

...Strong to Severe Storms Expected this Evening...

Storms have been slow to develop this afternoon with a slight cap in
place over most of the area.  However, one area that we have seen
some activity in is over portions of the Bluegrass and north central
KY where strong to marginally severe storms have been widely
scattered this afternoon.  We've had one report of 61 mph winds at
the Clark Co mesonet this afternoon.  This area had better lift due
to an upper level shortwave moving across central IN/OH today.  The
rest of our area has been inhibited by the cap and lack of trigger
so far.

This evening will be more favorable for a period of more widespread
strong to severe storms from about 7pm to 2am EDT.  We're already
starting to see more storms break the cap over north central KY east
of I-65 as of 3pm EDT.  Also, energy from the main upper level
trough will dive south this evening helping to produce numerous
showers and storms over the area.  Several sfc boundaries exist to
focus convection ahead of the main sfc front which extend SW from
the sfc low over central Illinois to southwest MO.  The low and sfc
front will move east overnight with the sfc front crossing the area
sometime tomorrow morning.  Some models indicate it may stall some
where over south central/east central KY tomorrow afternoon giving
southern and eastern portions of KY possibly another chance of
storms although probably not quite as strong. Convection should
clear the entire area sometime Fri night.

Strong to severe storms this evening will contain damaging winds as
the main threat.  With plenty of CAPE, severe hail will also be a
threat.  If a storm can latch onto a boundary, rotation or an isld
tornado could be possible but not likely.

With heat indices reaching criteria over most of the advisory area,
will leave in place for now.  Probably will cancel that early if
convection becomes more widespread.

Temps tonight will be in the lower 70s with highs tomorrow in the
mid 80s to around 90.  Lows Fri night will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

.Long Term (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2012

Main trough axis should be off to our southeast Saturday morning.
With that shift, airmass should be drier over us. Expect troughiness
to be to our east most of this period, but it will weaken as a ridge
builds into the lower Mississippi River Valley. Thus expect after a
near normal start to temperatures Saturday, we will see a steady
rise after that. After a dry weekend, we should start seeing
isolated coverage again Monday afternoon and then scattered storms
the rest of the week. Heat indices look to get close to the advisory
level by midweek.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 19 2012

An upper level trough moving through the area as well as multiple
sfc boundaries will cause on and off chances of t-storms this
afternoon and tonight.  According to the latest 12Z NAM and 13Z HRRR
models, scattered convection near SDF/LEX looks likely this
afternoon with t-storm chances increasing this evening at BWG.  It
is hard to nail down timing of storms and have left VCTS in for a
good period this afternoon and evening.  Will need to refine reduced
flight conditions (MVFR or IFR) and winds as t-storms approach the
TAF sites.  Outside of any t-storms late this afternoon/evening, sfc
winds will become gusty out of the SW on approach of the main upper
level trough and sfc front.  The best chance of widespread storms
looks to be associated with these features between 0Z and 6Z this
evening.

After 6Z to 9Z storms should exit the TAF sites with lingering
showers possible.  NAM soundings and MOS guidance indicates low cigs
(MVFR) moving in behind the main convection lasting through the
morning hours.  The main wind shift (WSW to NW) with the main sfc
front will occur near the very end of this TAF period between
15-19Z tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KYZ023>032-061-062-070>072.

Update...........AMS
Short Term.......AMS
Long Term........RJS
Aviation.........AMS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
709 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

KYC029-179-215-192340-
NELSON KY-SPENCER KY-BULLITT KY-
709 PM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND 40
MPH WINDS...

AT 704 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF SHEPHERDSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  TAYLORSVILLE...
  COXS CREEK AND WATERFORD...
  FAIRFIELD...
  BLOOMFIELD AND WAKEFIELD...
  CHAPLIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 8510 3800 8513 3799 8517 3789 8515
      3788 8520 3785 8521 3787 8522 3786 8523
      3787 8525 3786 8525 3785 8528 3781 8531
      3786 8571 3808 8560 3811 8543 3815 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 281DEG 23KT 3796 8551

RAS