Severe Thunderstorm Warning 371, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
743 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

.Mesoscale Update...
Updated at 743 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2012

Several clusters of strong to severe convection continue to drop
southward across the forecast area this evening.  Atmosphere is
fairly worked over across the northeast/Bluegrass where several
rounds of heavy convection have essentially overturned the
atmosphere.  Still getting some renewed convection along the western
and southern boundaries of this Bluegrass convection as the gust
fronts head south and west.  These gust fronts are quite strong
given the instability and heat that we've had this afternoon.  40-50
MPH gusts are possible along these outflows as they blow through.

Cluster of strongest convection appears to be over our western
sections across southwest Indiana.  This area has not been worked
over and instability and moisture are greatest out in this area.
Precipitation efficiencies are quite high and it is likely that
these storms are putting out a ton of torrential rainfall.  These
storms will affect primarily Perry Co. Indiana, Hancock, Ohio, and
Breckinridge counties in Kentucky over the next 60-120 minutes.
Other convection along the I-65 corridor from Larue south into Hart
county will continue to drop south, but recent trends suggests
weakening as instability is waning.

&&

.Short Term (Tonight - Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2012

Several small vortmaxes as well as outflow from earlier convection
creating isolated thunderstorms so far this afternoon. Still
expecting scattered convection by late afternoon, especially as we
have a nice boundary scooting in from the central Indiana at this
time. Model soundings and SPC mesoanalysis page indicate plenty of
instability. Added in wording for gusty winds and heavy rain into
the zones in the last update and have kept it in with a pre-first
period zone wording this package.

New heat advisory area still looks good and plan no further changes
with this forecast package. The problem creeps in again tomorrow,
with heat indices highly dependent on timing of convection during
the day. Based on current forecast, have heat indices rising to
similar levels to what we have today. Expect more
convection/afternoon cloud cover to limit the length of time we stay
at those high levels.

As for that convection, have plenty of deep tropical moisture over
the region tomorrow. Any of those weak shortwaves can spark off a
cluster of storms, similar to what we had this morning off to the
northeast. So we have two possibilities for weather tomorrow...the
first being morning convection spreading across some part of the
region and delaying onset of heavier storms until the afternoon. The
other option would be little to no morning convection allowing
temperatures to go up quickly and then firing off storms early in
the afternoon and continuing across the region at least into the
evening. A front approaching the region from the north would serve
as an early focus for convection that would send outflows into our
area to combine with the heating and create numerous storms. Will
lean toward the second solution, but keep in isolated pops for the
morning.

With this more likely solution in mind, thunderstorms that form in
the afternoon will have plenty of instability to work with as well.
Temperatures aloft look too warm for large hail, so will mention
more of the wind threat as well as heavy rainfall.

Thursday night our area will be very close to that front and a
digging trough moving into the Ohio Valley. The proximity to both
will leave in good rain chances through the night.

.Long Term (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2012

The Ohio Valley will be in the weakness between the Bermuda ridge
and another upper-level ridge amplifying over the Plains. Shortwave
trof will dig into that weakness on Friday, pushing a weak cool
front into the region. A healthy moisture feed will support showers
and thunderstorms, with the highest POPs from the Bluegrass region
south to Lake Cumberland. Will carry likely POPs there, with a solid
chance west of I-65.

POPs taper from NW to SE Friday night, and the forecast will be dry
for at least the first half of the weekend. Weak and rapidly
modifying bubble of high pressure will provide some relief from the
heat and humidity, but this run leaves us less confident than the
last in just how much of an air mass change will occur. Best guess
is max temps in the mid/upper 80s Saturday, with dewpoints from the
mid-60s near the Ohio River to around 70 in south-central Kentucky.

Upper trof lifts out later in the weekend as the front washes out to
our south. Upper ridge remains well off to our west, with weak NW
flow east of the Mississippi. Daytime temps will recover into the
90s on Sunday, with overnight lows rebounding to the lower/mid 70s
by Sunday night. POPs will be mostly diurnally driven, with slight
chance by day and dry forecast by night. Perhaps an increase in POPs
by Wednesday as there is a better chance for an MCS to roll SE out
of the Upper Midwest and hold together into the Ohio Valley.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2012

Diurnally driven convection continues across the forecast area this
evening and KLEX seems likely to bear the brunt of it.  Strong
cluster of storms just north of KLEX will push through over the next
hour.  Torrential rains reducing visibilities to less than a mile
along with wind gusts up to 45 kts can be expected.  This activity
should diminish rapidly after 19/01Z. Over at KSDF and KBWG, will
keep VCTS in the forecast for now...for the next few hours as
convection continues to fire along various outflow boundaries.
Atmospheric instability should weaken with the loss of diurnal
heating by 19/01-02Z.  VFR conditions look likely overnight, but
there is some concern for fog potential.  We will re-evaluate that
and issue another TAF update before 19/03Z to address those concerns.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KYZ023>032.

Mesoscale........MJ
Short Term.......RJS
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
332 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

KYZ033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-192245-
HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-
ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-
WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-
BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-
GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...
GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...
DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...
MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...
RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...
TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...
ALBANY
332 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012 /232 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN THE AREA. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STAY AWAY FROM THE RAIN.
USE CAUTION IF PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK COOL FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH CROSS THE
REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN THAT
MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF STRONG WINDS AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
(ALL LOWER CASE)

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>032-192245-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD
332 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012 /232 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012/

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN THE AREA. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK JUST ABOVE 105 DEGREES FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON. USE CAUTION IF PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK COOL FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH CROSS THE
REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN THAT
MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF STRONG WINDS AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
(ALL LOWER CASE)

RJS/RAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
722 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W LEXINGTON           38.04N  84.50W
07/18/2012                   FAYETTE            KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN NEAR ALEXANDRIA DRIVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200798

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
749 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

KYC001-021-045-079-137-151-155-217-190020-
LINCOLN KY-MADISON KY-MARION KY-TAYLOR KY-ADAIR KY-BOYLE KY-CASEY
KY-GARRARD KY-
749 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS MOVING SOUTH THROUGH EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...

AT 745 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES EAST OF
LEBANON TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANDGAP...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LIBERTY...
  STANFORD...
  CAMPBELLSVILLE...
  WALNUT FLAT AND PREACHERSVILLE...
  BRADFORDSVILLE AND SUGAR GROVE...
  HIGHLAND AND TURKEYTOWN...
  MERRIMAC AND SOUTH FORK...

BE AWARE THAT A GUST FRONT PRECEDING THESE STORMS WILL GENERATE
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF ANY RAIN.  THESE
WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3756 8411 3755 8417 3752 8420 3751 8427
      3753 8434 3747 8438 3748 8444 3733 8450
      3735 8455 3734 8457 3724 8471 3726 8540
      3763 8517 3760 8410
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 008DEG 28KT 3756 8503 3755 8420

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
750 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

KYC099-190050-
HART KY-
650 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 645 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF MUNFORDVILLE...AND MOVING
SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  LINWOOD AND POWDER MILL...
  RIO AND HINESDALE...
  GLEN LILY...
  CANMER...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3715 8587 3744 8592 3743 8577 3742 8568
      3738 8566 3737 8568 3730 8570 3726 8567
      3718 8569
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 347DEG 10KT 3737 8578

RAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
752 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

INC123-190020-
PERRY IN-
652 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012

...CONTINUOUS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING OVER
WESTERN PERRY COUNTY...

AT 645 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF PERRY
COUNTY. THE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WAS OCCURRING WITH THESE
STORMS. THE LIGHTNING IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS! SEEK SHELTER INDOORS
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

TORRENTIAL RAIN IS ALSO FALLING FROM THESE STORMS ALONG WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH OR SO.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  TELL CITY...
  RANGER...
  LILLY DALE AND GATCHEL...
  TERRY AND APALONA...
  CELINA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES.

&&

LAT...LON 3801 8680 3801 8678 3808 8678 3809 8677
      3811 8679 3821 8679 3821 8656 3792 8655
      3793 8676 3800 8680
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 279DEG 13KT 3817 8671 3800 8670

TWF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
757 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRYANTSVILLE            37.72N  84.65W
07/18/2012                   GARRARD            KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWNED NEAR BRYANTSVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200800

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
806 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

INC019-KYC111-185-211-190035-
CLARK IN-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-SHELBY KY-
806 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS MOVING SOUTHWARD JUST EAST OF THE
LOUISVILLE METRO AREA...

AT 803 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PROSPECT...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  ST. MATTHEWS...
  PROSPECT...
  OKOLONA...
  LYNDON...
  JEFFERSONTOWN...
  OAK PARK...
  LOUISVILLE BOWMAN FIELD...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3815 8528 3813 8537 3815 8542 3813 8543
      3812 8543 3808 8565 3809 8568 3835 8571
      3846 8553
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 008DEG 10KT 3832 8559

MJ