Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2012

.Short Term (Tonight - Monday night)...

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 2012

...Strong with scattered Severe Storms Expected this
Afternoon/Evening...

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 10 pm this evening
along and north of the Bluegrass Parkway.

Although the cold front is at this moment still north of
Indianapolis, a pre-frontal trough has localized low level
convergence along Interstate 64 in northern Kentucky. Expect
scattered to occasionally widespread thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening across southern Indiana and along and north of
Interstate 64. By 4 pm, expect increasing coverage of thunderstorms
across the Bluegrass Region.

All of these storms are developing within a corridor of very high
CAPE of up to 3000 Joules and area of high PWATs forecast to
increase to as much as 2 inches by the early morning hours. Storms,
this evening will stay unorganized, with new development determined
by boundary intersections and differential heating. However, some of
these slow moving storms will produced localized heavy rainfall and
gusty winds.

During the overnight period, new thunderstorm development may
develop farther to the south, affecting our southern counties by
late evening or early Monday morning. The afore-mentioned front will
very slowly sag south, perhaps aided by convective outflows, to
central Kentucky by mid-morning on Monday. Although the atmosphere
may be a bit worked over by early Monday north of I-64, will still
keep a continued good chance of scattered showers or storms north.
Storms will be likely early Monday across our southern counties,
continuing into the afternoon hours.

Temperatures will stay warm overnight, falling into the lower 70s.
Distinctly cooler temperatures will arrive Monday afternoon, aided
by cloud cover. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s.

.Long Term (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 2012

Not spending too much time on this period with ongoing weather. Ran
mostly with a blend of the previous forecast and the consensus of
models. This consensus has troughing aloft dominating our weather
which weakens by the end of the work week. Still even then our
region will be between two ridges, one over the Rockies and another
off the Carolina coast. Thus cannot rule out rain chances for most
of the period, though the north half should be dry with the front
currently near us expected to stall just to our south Tuesday
through Thursday. Temperatures look to be near normal for the whole
period.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1320 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 2012

Scattered very slow moving thunderstorms will increase in coverage
through the evening hours. The SDF terminal will be most affected
through around 23z. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
at SDF. Scattered thunderstorms will develop at LEX and at BWG later
this evening after 21z.

With a slow moving front approaching the Ohio River later this
evening...scattered convection is frankly likely at a variety of
different locations throughout the overnight period. The majority of
the time at any specific TAF location will be dry with just
mid-level clouds and VFR flying conditions. However, any terminal
could be well in the vicinity of a storm at any time.

Outside of any gusty thunderstorm, winds will stay very light and
variable during the overnight period.

Isolated thunderstorms are still possible after 12z Monday,
especially over our southern locations such as BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

Short Term.......JSD
Long Term........RS
Aviation.........JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
539 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>034-038-039-045-046-053-054-
061>066-070>078-081-082-092145-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-SPENCER KY-
ANDERSON KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
539 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012 /439 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SOME
MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
ON MONDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE (ALL LOWER CASE).

KYZ035>037-040>043-047>049-055>057-067-092145-
FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-LINCOLN KY-
539 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE BLUEGRASS
REGION.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS REGION ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT WIND
DAMAGE OR DOWNED TREES.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE (ALL LOWER CASE).

JSD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
620 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

KYC031-183-082250-
OHIO KY-BUTLER KY-
520 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 517 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF MORGANTOWN...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE MILE...HALF INCH
HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  GILSTRAP AND OAK GROVE...
  FLINT SPRINGS AND SELECT...
  BAIZETOWN...
  ARNOLD AND BANOCK...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 28
AND 41.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3746 8679 3738 8657 3718 8672 3727 8690
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 214DEG 16KT 3729 8675

LG