Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2012

.Short Term (Tonight - Monday night)...

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 2012

...Strong with scattered Severe Storms Expected this
Afternoon/Evening...

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 10 pm this evening
along and north of the Bluegrass Parkway.

Although the cold front is at this moment still north of
Indianapolis, a pre-frontal trough has localized low level
convergence along Interstate 64 in northern Kentucky. Expect
scattered to occasionally widespread thunderstorms late this
afternoon and evening across southern Indiana and along and north of
Interstate 64. By 4 pm, expect increasing coverage of thunderstorms
across the Bluegrass Region.

All of these storms are developing within a corridor of very high
CAPE of up to 3000 Joules and area of high PWATs forecast to
increase to as much as 2 inches by the early morning hours. Storms,
this evening will stay unorganized, with new development determined
by boundary intersections and differential heating. However, some of
these slow moving storms will produced localized heavy rainfall and
gusty winds.

During the overnight period, new thunderstorm development may
develop farther to the south, affecting our southern counties by
late evening or early Monday morning. The afore-mentioned front will
very slowly sag south, perhaps aided by convective outflows, to
central Kentucky by mid-morning on Monday. Although the atmosphere
may be a bit worked over by early Monday north of I-64, will still
keep a continued good chance of scattered showers or storms north.
Storms will be likely early Monday across our southern counties,
continuing into the afternoon hours.

Temperatures will stay warm overnight, falling into the lower 70s.
Distinctly cooler temperatures will arrive Monday afternoon, aided
by cloud cover. Expect highs in the mid to upper 80s.

.Long Term (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 2012

Not spending too much time on this period with ongoing weather. Ran
mostly with a blend of the previous forecast and the consensus of
models. This consensus has troughing aloft dominating our weather
which weakens by the end of the work week. Still even then our
region will be between two ridges, one over the Rockies and another
off the Carolina coast. Thus cannot rule out rain chances for most
of the period, though the north half should be dry with the front
currently near us expected to stall just to our south Tuesday
through Thursday. Temperatures look to be near normal for the whole
period.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1320 PM EDT Sun Jul 8 2012

Scattered very slow moving thunderstorms will increase in coverage
through the evening hours. The SDF terminal will be most affected
through around 23z. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected
at SDF. Scattered thunderstorms will develop at LEX and at BWG later
this evening after 21z.

With a slow moving front approaching the Ohio River later this
evening...scattered convection is frankly likely at a variety of
different locations throughout the overnight period. The majority of
the time at any specific TAF location will be dry with just
mid-level clouds and VFR flying conditions. However, any terminal
could be well in the vicinity of a storm at any time.

Outside of any gusty thunderstorm, winds will stay very light and
variable during the overnight period.

Isolated thunderstorms are still possible after 12z Monday,
especially over our southern locations such as BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

Short Term.......JSD
Long Term........RS
Aviation.........JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
329 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

KYZ023-026-027-061>066-070>078-081-082-091930-
HANCOCK KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-
GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
329 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012 /229 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES NEAR 105.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY WINDS...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE (ALL LOWER CASE).

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ024-025-028>043-045>049-053>057-067-
091930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-
MADISON KY-LINCOLN KY-
329 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012 /229 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY EARLY
MORNING. SOME STORMS THIS EVENING MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGE TO REPORT ANY POWER OUTAGES OR DAMAGING
WIND TO LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE (ALL LOWER CASE).

JSD/RS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
233 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

INC025-061-KYC163-081915-
HARRISON IN-CRAWFORD IN-MEADE KY-
233 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...STRONG NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF INCH HAIL...AND 45 MPH WINDS HAS
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTY JUST WEST OF LEAVENWORTH...

AT 227 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENGLISH...AND MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  WYANDOTTE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3831 8649 3831 8630 3823 8625 3812 8630
      3814 8646 3820 8646 3821 8649
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 264DEG 18KT 3820 8634

JSD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
324 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

KYC005-179-215-229-081955-
NELSON KY-SPENCER KY-WASHINGTON KY-ANDERSON KY-
324 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TAYLORSVILLE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 5 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...HALF INCH HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 55
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. SHOULD THIS STORM STRENGTHEN
FURTHER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE REQUIRED.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  BRUSH GROVE...
  VAN BUREN...
  SPARROW AND JOHNSONVILLE...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34
AND 42.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 8509 3782 8509 3786 8537 3798 8535
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 272DEG 6KT 3792 8522

RS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEBANON JUNCTION        37.83N  85.73W
07/08/2012                   BULLITT            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES REPORTED DOWN. ONE ON A CAR. ALSO POWER LINES
            DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200763

RL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
341 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

KYC017-097-181-082025-
NICHOLAS KY-BOURBON KY-HARRISON KY-
341 PM EDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF
CARLISLE TO CYNTHIANA...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 45 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  CYNTHIANA...
  CARLISLE...
  ELLISVILLE AND BARTERVILLE...
  HOOKTOWN...
  HEADQUARTERS...
  PLEASANT VALLEY AND MILLERSBURG...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 8405 3834 8443 3853 8421 3852 8418
      3851 8418 3848 8415 3848 8412 3846 8410
      3843 8396 3838 8391 3837 8391 3837 8388
      3833 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 280DEG 19KT 3842 8401 3838 8417
          3836 8430

RS