Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 492, NWS Louisville, KY

July 27, 20126 counties in Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 27, 2012, 10:38 PM EDT for 6 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 27, 2012, 10:38 PM EDT (02:38 UTC)
Expired: Jul 27, 2012, 11:10 PM EDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.5 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Hardin County, KY, Larue County, KY, Marion County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Washington County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 2.6 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1902 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -1 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1490 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 15 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 27, 10:23 PM EDT, 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 27, 10:23 PM EDT, 15 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1023 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.Mesoscale Discussion...
Issued at 1020 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2012

Line of strongest convection extends from Richmond to Bardstown to
Tell City, and is now starting to become more outflow-dominated.
However, we continue to see the odd downburst within the line.
Mid-level shortwave trof axis is roughly overhead, so as the night
progresses, the re-generation of the west end of the line should
diminish, as should the general SVR threat. Storms could continue to
produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall for at least a couple
more hours. Flood potential is limited because the line continues to
make decent, if somewhat slow, progress to the south.

&&

.Short Term (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2012

Upper trough has been moving steadily east southeast today, with a
rough axis this hour from near KLOT to near KSTL. Storms have formed
out ahead of this trough across central Indiana, also out ahead of a
sharp dewpoint gradient along a cool front. Cumulus field over our
region is limited to roughly along and east of I-65. Still given
convergence along that sharp front moving into the region later this
afternoon, expect isolated to scattered storms developing and
pushing eastward. Limiting factor today compared to yesterday is the
amount of precipitable water available. Freezing level and wet bulb
zeroes are lower than at this time yesterday, so combining this
information with drier air in the column should allow for larger
hail to form today in addition to damaging winds. SPC mesonanalysis
page indicates highest K indices in the area where the cumulus field
has congested the most, just to our north. Given these threats, have
gone ahead with a severe thunderstorm watch over the north. Should
coverage become more widespread than current thinking, we can expand
this watch farther south.

Coverage should die down with loss of heating this evening. Have
forecast dry after midnight. Rest of the period should be dry as
well, as deeper moisture shifts away from the region in the wake of
that upper trough's passage. Temperatures Saturday and Saturday
night will be close to normal for late July.

.Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2012

After a dry mostly sunny Sunday, an active NW flow with multiple
shortwaves will dominate the pattern Mon/Tues with perhaps greater
instability and a stronger shortwave signal forecast for Mon Night
into early Tues.  Looks like this leading wave will be just ahead of
a sfc boundary according to the 12Z GFS/GFS ensembles.  The front is
a little less obvious in the 0Z ECMWF data.  So after an early round
of convection Tues, a consensus in model timing of the front
suggests another round of convection developing late Tues just ahead
of the front.  After the front passes through the area or washes out
Tues night/Wed, at least a couple of shortwaves look to remain in
the flow for Thurs/Fri.  The GFS is a bit more aggressive bringing
down another sfc front for later in the week.  Not real confident in
this front quite yet, but will allow 20-40% POPs in the forecast for
more diurnal based convection and the shortwave possibility which is
more probable at this point.

Temperatures in the long term period look to remain near normal or a
tad above normal.  High temps should top out in the upper 80s and
lower 90s with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Fri Jul 27 2012

Obviously the main issue here is the convection across southern
Indiana and northern Kentucky this evening.  By the time the TAFs
begin, the gust front from these storms will have already gone
through SDF and LEX, switching winds to the northwest at speeds
around 15kt gusting to 30kt (especially at SDF -- maybe a little
less at LEX).  Will account for TSRA and VRB gusty winds in the
first three hours of the northern TAFs.  BWG will not be affected.

After that, the rest of the forecast will be very quiet.  May need
to look out for some patchy fog towards dawn in areas where rain
falls this evening, but right now with a fropa expected around
sunrise will bank on the atmosphere being too mixy for much fog
production.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Mesoscale........RAS
Short Term.......RJS
Long Term........AMS
Aviation.........13

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 27, 7:47 PM EDT, 2 hours 51 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
747 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-090>092-KYZ030>037-039>043-048-049-057-290300-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-
HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-ANDERSON KY-
WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
MADISON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...
FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...RICHMOND
747 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 /647 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 532 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM
CDT/ THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE FRONT CROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE...STRONG WIND GUSTS...OR
HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
(ALL LOWER CASE)

INZ089-KYZ023>029-038-045>047-053>056-061>067-070>078-081-082-290300-
PERRY IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-
HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-SPENCER KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-
GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TELL CITY...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...BARDSTOWN...
SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...
COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
747 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 /647 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OFF AND ON MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE FRONT CROSS
THE REGION. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE...STRONG WIND GUSTS...OR
HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE
(ALL LOWER CASE)

13

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 27, 9:54 PM EDT, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
954 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SW LAWRENCEBURG       38.01N  84.93W
07/27/2012                   ANDERSON           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            18 TREE DOWN ON U.S. 62 NEAR WILD TURKEY TRACE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200987

LG

Local storm report, Jul 27, 9:55 PM EDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
955 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             3 SE GLENSBORO          37.97N  85.02W
07/27/2012  E0.50 INCH       ANDERSON           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MARBLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR BEAVER LAKE

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200988

LG

Special weather statement, Jul 27, 9:57 PM EDT, 41 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
957 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

INC123-KYC027-093-123-155-163-179-280225-
PERRY IN-LARUE KY-MARION KY-MEADE KY-NELSON KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-HARDIN
KY-
957 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY
RAIN...AND 40 MPH WINDS CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER...

AT 950 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM TELL CITY TO
SHEPHERDSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT...
  HARDINSBURG...
  ELIZABETHTOWN...
  BRANDENBURG...
  FORT KNOX AND GRAHAMTON...
  HARDINGROVE AND HOLT...
  ROME AND STEPHENSPORT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 8623 3801 8608 3796 8605 3800 8602
      3801 8595 3799 8590 3794 8590 3795 8587
      3792 8583 3786 8582 3781 8574 3789 8558
      3773 8539 3767 8537 3761 8526 3761 8659
      3783 8667 3791 8665 3791 8670 3807 8675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 289DEG 21KT 3800 8668 3786 8566

13

Local storm report, Jul 27, 9:59 PM EDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
959 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ENE WEST POINT        38.01N  85.87W
07/27/2012                   BULLITT            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTS TREES DOWN NEAR KNOB CREEK ROAD AND KY
            44 W ALONG WITH A BLOWN TRANSFORMER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200989

LG

Special weather statement, Jul 27, 10:24 PM EDT, 14 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1024 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

KYC021-045-079-113-137-155-167-179-229-239-280310-
JESSAMINE KY-LINCOLN KY-MARION KY-MERCER KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON
KY-WOODFORD KY-BOYLE KY-CASEY KY-GARRARD KY-
1024 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND
40 MPH WINDS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

AT 1018 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NICHOLASVILLE TO
BARDSTOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT...
  STANFORD...
  SPRINGFIELD...
  LEBANON...
  LANCASTER...
  HARRODSBURG...
  PERRYVILLE AND NEEDMORE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3750 8435 3747 8438 3748 8444 3743 8446
      3747 8540 3782 8566 3791 8460 3778 8451
      3776 8451 3774 8449 3773 8450 3770 8445
      3768 8446 3764 8442 3762 8442 3761 8440
      3753 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 324DEG 27KT 3773 8453 3777 8559

13

Local storm report, Jul 27, 10:36 PM EDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1036 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JASPER                  38.39N  86.94W
07/27/2012                   DUBOIS             IN   PUBLIC

            TREE REPORTED DOWN IN BACKYARD VIA FACEBOOK

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1200990

LG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 27, 8:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson, Spencer	30 min
Jul 27, 8:17 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Clark, Fayette, Woodford	43 min
Jul 27, 8:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Jefferson	29 min
Jul 27, 8:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson, Fayette, Jessamine, Woodford	43 min
Jul 27, 8:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson, Jessamine, Mercer, Shelby, Woodford	44 min
Jul 27, 8:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bullitt, Jefferson, Spencer	26 min
Jul 27, 8:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Meade	29 min
Jul 27, 9:02 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Anderson	28 min
Jul 27, 9:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Clark, Fayette, Jessamine, Madison	27 min
Jul 27, 9:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson, Shelby, Spencer	46 min
Jul 27, 9:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bullitt, Hardin, Jefferson, Meade	30 min
Jul 27, 9:31 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	LMK	Anderson, Franklin, Mercer, Shelby, Woodford	3 hr
Jul 27, 9:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bullitt, Nelson, Spencer	30 min
Jul 27, 9:57 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Breckinridge, Hardin, Meade	28 min
Jul 27, 10:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bullitt, Hardin, Meade, Nelson	31 min
Jul 27, 10:24 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Boyle, Garrard, Jessamine, Lincoln, Marion, Mercer and 2 more	46 min
Jul 27, 10:59 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Casey, Lincoln	46 min
Jul 27, 11:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Casey, Marion, Taylor	29 min
Jul 27, 11:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Casey, Lincoln, Marion, Taylor	41 min
Jul 28, 1:40 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Adair, Green	30 min
Jul 28, 2:09 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Adair, Russell	31 min
Jul 28, 2:15 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Cumberland	45 min
Jul 27, 8:02 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Crawford, Dubois, Harrison, Orange	28 min
Jul 27, 8:36 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Floyd, Harrison	29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.