Severe Thunderstorm Warning 214, NWS Louisville, KY

602 
WWUS53 KLMK 282244
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
644 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

INC025-037-117-282300-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0214.000000T0000Z-120428T2300Z/
ORANGE IN-CRAWFORD IN-DUBOIS IN-
644 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DUBOIS...NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND ORANGE
COUNTIES...

AT 644 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR NORTON...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A 
HISTORY OF PRODUCING ONE INCH HAIL.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  PAOLI...
  ENGLISH...
  YOUNGS CREEK AND ETHEL...
  BACON AND PINE VALLEY...
  VALEENE AND TEMPLE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD IMMEDIATELY MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 8631 3861 8630 3826 8640 3842 8684
      3843 8685 3853 8679 3853 8669 3869 8668
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 292DEG 42KT 3849 8661
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 1.00IN

$$

MP

608 
WWUS53 KLMK 282252
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

INC025-037-117-282300-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0214.000000T0000Z-120428T2300Z/
ORANGE IN-CRAWFORD IN-DUBOIS IN-
652 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DUBOIS...NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND ORANGE
COUNTIES...

AT 651 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED  LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENBRIER...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...

  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN DUBOIS...NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD
  AND ORANGE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...
AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD IMMEDIATELY MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM 
WINDOWS. BASEBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT FRENCH LICK AIRPORT BY 
LAW ENFORCEMENT.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LOUISVILLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 8631 3860 8630 3826 8640 3839 8674
      3869 8660
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 292DEG 42KT 3845 8650
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 2.75IN

$$

MP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
603 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 555 PM EDT Sat Apr 28 2012

Doing a quick update to delay POPs east of I-65 this evening.
Surface boundary stretches from roughly Orange county, IN southeast
to northern Bullitt county, KY to northern Madison county, KY.
Although storms could develop once cap has broke anywhere along the
boundary, it looks like cells over southwest IN will track southeast
along the boundary, or just downstream of the boundary in the cool
air. If storms remain on the cool side of this, large hail will be
the only threat with storms. If storms become rooted in the boundary
layer, isolated damaging winds could be a threat, but at this time,
this does not look like the main scenario.

Other than tweaking POP timing and sky cover, rest of forecast is on
track. Update already sent to web.

.Short Term (Tonight through Monday morning)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sat Apr 28 2012

...Still a potential for scattered severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and early evening over southern Indiana and northern part
of central Kentucky...

A surface analysis shows that at 2 pm EDT a warm front extending
east southeast from southwestern Indiana through just north of
Louisville to Lexington. This front extends farther west to an area
of weak low pressure over northeastern Missouri. This boundary will
move just a little more to the northeast before stalling this
evening.

Strong instability with steep mid-level lapse rates have developed
along and just to the south of this boundary. As an ill defined
shortwave moves towards southern Indiana this evening, expect a
least scattered storms to develop right along or just to the north
of this boundary late this afternoon or early this evening. With
moderate to strong instability and uni-directional shear, these
storms may develop into more organized convection with isolated
damaging winds or large hail possible. Feel that our best chance for
scattered to numerous storms this evening will lie north of
Interstate 64. Although portions of the northern Bluegrass may
struggle to reach the lower 70s, highs this afternoon will peak in
the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Will put chances of convection
around 50% along our northern border this evening, reducing chances
to slight just south of Interstate 64.

Current and forecast soundings show a cap over southern Kentucky.
This will likely preclude convection this evening.

The wave responsible for the anticipated Indiana convection this
evening will move off to the northeast early Sunday. Any scattered
showers will diminish across the northern Bluegrass during the
pre-dawn hours Sunday. A cold front will sag south towards south
central Kentucky Sunday morning, shifting winds to the east and
bringing cooler temperatures and variable cloudiness to the northern
half of our forecast area. On Sunday, any afternoon instability will
be tempered by increased cloud cover, despite a lack of any upper
air features, will continue with a slight chance of showers.
Temperatures Sunday will range from near 70 across the Bluegrass to
the lower 80s near Tennessee.

.Long Term (Monday through Friday)...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Apr 28 2012

Monday through Saturday...

Weak short waves riding through a relatively zonal upper air flow
through the week will bring a few opportunities for little more than
garden variety thunderstorms during the week. With the gulf opened
up, surface dew points will remain at or above the mid 50s until for
most of the week, helping to supply moisture for any storms that do
pop up. The most significant looking opportunity for precipitation
during the period appears to be from Thursday night through Friday
as a cold front associated with a weakening trof is progged to move
through the eastern half of the U.S.  The GFS keeps this feature
together a bit better than the ECMWF, but this far expect all model
solutions to change a few more times before the period approaches so
will generally hold POPs into the 30s and 40s.

With the juicy southerly flow off the gulf, minimum temperatures
will remain above normal through the period with readings mainly in
the 60s. Lows could drop into the 50s across the area Saturday
morning if the aforementioned cold front remains intact as it
crosses the Ohio River.

Max temps through the week will be 10-15 degrees above normal - in
the lower to mid 80s. Like the min temperatures, these should drop a
bit on Saturday after the weak cold frontal passage, but will still
be in the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Updated at 120 PM EDT Sat Apr 28 2012

At time (1pm EDT) a warm front lay right over SDF and just a bit
south of LEX. For SDF, south southwest winds will develop and range
between 5 and 9kt through the rest of the afternoon hours, then
become light easterly overnight. At LEX, this warm front may never
fully move north of the airport. Light and variable winds may become
light from the south after 20z, then become light easterly after
05z.

Winds at BWG will remain from the southwest at 10 to 12kt with some
gusts up to 20kt prior to 22z. After 06z, winds will become light
and variable.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late
this afternoon and move east along the Interstate 64 corridor
through the evening hours. Uncertainty exists on exactly what track
these storms take, or to a lesser extent, whether they will develop
at all. Should these storms develop and take the right track, they
will affect SDF in the 22 to 03z time frame, and perhaps an hour
later at LEX. Confidence in storms affecting SDF and LEX is around
50%. Brief MVFR visibilities and ceilings as well as gusty and
variable winds are likely in any thunderstorms.

For BWG, no storms and overnight VFR conditions are expected.

Variably cloudy skies are expected during the early morning and
afternoon hours on Sunday. However, any broken or overcast ceilings
will predominately stay above the MVFR threshold.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

Update...........AL
Short Term.......JSD
Long Term........JBS
Aviation.........JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
437 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-090>092-KYZ030>037-039>043-049-292000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-
TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-
ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-
CLARK KY-
437 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012 /337 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. MODERATE
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STAY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ON TUESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS
EVENING.

INZ089-KYZ023>029-038-045>048-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-
292000-
PERRY IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-
HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-SPENCER KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-
BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-
LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-
MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
437 PM EDT SAT APR 28 2012 /337 PM CDT SAT APR 28 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MID TO LATE
EVENING...DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY STORM MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ON TUESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JSD/JS