Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS New Orleans, LA

957 
WWUS54 KLIX 050825
SVSLIX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
325 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

LAC033-037-125-050835-
/O.EXP.KLIX.SV.W.0087.000000T0000Z-120405T0830Z/
EAST FELICIANA LA-EAST BATON ROUGE LA-WEST FELICIANA LA-
325 AM CDT THU APR 5 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN WEST FELICIANA...
NORTHERN EAST BATON ROUGE AND EAST FELICIANA PARISHES WILL EXPIRE AT
330 AM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3095 9143 3100 9085 3096 9085 3094 9086
      3091 9085 3075 9087 3060 9096 3073 9136
      3076 9137 3075 9142 3077 9149
TIME...MOT...LOC 0825Z 278DEG 26KT 3079 9103

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1148 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012

.UPDATE...

WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER VORT MAX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL
EXPIRATION. CAB/35

&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE ADDED A 2 TO 3 HOUR TEMPO GROUP TO KHUM...KMSY AND KNEW FOR
CONVECTION CURRENTLY MOVING INTO TERREBONNE PARISH. THIS ACTIVITY
DOES APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING. STILL EXPECT TO SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH AN
IMPROVING TREND TO AROUND 2500 SCT/BKN CLOUDS BY 15Z...AND VFR BY
18Z. GFS FRONTAL TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH PASSAGE DURING THE
LATE MORNING 15-17Z AT KBTR AND KHUM...TO AFTERNOON HOURS...21Z
AT KGPT. POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR KMSY AND
KNEW. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012/

UPDATE...

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING. STILL FAIRLY MOIST AND
CONTINUED VERY UNSTABLE THIS EVENING WITH A PW OF 1.31 INCHES AND
AN LI OF -7.1. WINDS VERY UNIFORM TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE LOWER LEVELS ALL THE WAY UP TO AROUND 350
MB.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT EAST
TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH IN EAST TEXAS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST TONIGHT CAUSING ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT. USED
CONSENSUS OF GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AS BASIS FOR FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...
A FEW HOURS GRACE BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OR MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. THERE IS A EVEN GREATER RISK OF 2 TO 3
INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA GOT 2 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO THE GROUND IS SATURATED
AND ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY ALLOWING A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO APPROACH
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IN GETTING
RAINFALL MONDAY AND TUESDAY IS NOT HIGH...SO AM ONLY GO WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...
HAVE UPDATED TAFS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. IT SEEMS THAT
CONVECTION MIGHT HOLD OFF A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED. IT IS
STILL A VERY CONDITIONAL FORECAST SO HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE TEMPO
GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND REPLACED THEM WITH
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR FORECAST UPDATES THIS EVENING.

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SO HAVE DISCONTINUED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  61  82  53  79 /  50  20   0   0
BTR  64  85  58  81 /  50  10   0   0
ASD  66  85  60  81 /  50  30   0   0
MSY  68  84  64  81 /  50  20   0   0
GPT  66  84  60  81 /  50  40  10   0
PQL  67  84  60  81 /  50  50  10   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...NORTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST.
     JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
741 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-060045-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
741 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. PROLONGED PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO
TOMORROW MORNING.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE LOWER PEARL...LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA...AND BILOXI RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER
FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT
IN ADDITIONAL RIVERS...SMALL STREAMS...CANALS...AND BAYOUS RISING
TO NEAR BANK FULL OR MINOR FLOOD LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...
AND MAINLY IN COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LARGE HAIL.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
ONGOING AND POSSIBLE NEW RIVER FLOODING THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
937 PM CDT WED APR 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 AM     HAIL             4 NW BILOXI             30.46N 88.98W
04/04/2012  E1.00 INCH       HARRISON           MS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN THE CAMP WILKES AREA.

&&

CBANNAN

LAZ065-066-050500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1102 PM CDT WED APR 4 2012

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AFFECTING UPPER
TERREBONNE PARISH...LOWER TERREBONNE PARISH...

AT 1058 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER ST. MARYS PARISH ABOUT TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN LOWER TERREBONNE PARISH...NEAR POINT AU FER
ISLAND. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
LUMCON CENTER BUOY...TAMBOUR BAY BUOY...HOUMA...GRAY...DULAC...
COCODRIE AND BAYOU CANE

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.