Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
252 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691 TO THE EAST... WHICH
NOW INCLUDES... AVOYELLES... EVANGELINE... RAPIDES... ST.
LANDRY... LAFAYETTE... AND ACADIA UNTIL 9 AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691 FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES...
HARDIN... JASPER... NEWTON... ORANGE... AND TYLER. FOR SOUTHWEST
LOUSIANA... ALLEN... BEAUREGARD... CALCASIEU... JEFFERSON DAVIS...
AND VERNON UNTIL 9 AM. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT
THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1146 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING AS LATEST MODEL RUNS...
SPECIFICALLY THE 25/00Z GFS AND 4KM WRF...CONTINUE TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BREAKING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH
FOG WILL PERSIST IN THE EARLY GOING OF THIS FORECAST PLUS THE
ENDING TIME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY. FOR NOW EXPECT
LINGERING FOG TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE WITH THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVING INLAND. ANOTHER
CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE THE STRONG SRLY THEN WRLY
WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD DUE TO SFC GRADIENT
TIGHTENING AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THINGS SHOULD
QUIET DOWN BY OR AROUND SUNDOWN AS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND
ATTENDANT SFC FRONT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 857 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012/

UPDATE...FOG HAS CONTINUED TO THICKEN THIS EVENING ALONG AND
GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. SOME LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE VIS AND MORE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AS WELL.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING HRS AND THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH, THEREFORE THE ADV MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 3 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012/

UPDATE...MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
DEW POINTS INCREASING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 10 AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THIS HAS LEAD TO AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOPING, AND THIS HAD BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012/

INDICATIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY
STILL EXIST...

SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY
WILL HELP ENERGIZE AN ACTIVE JET STREAM OVER THE REGION...WITH A
DEVELOPING AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS BY MORNING THE RESULT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COMBINE WITH
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR EPISODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON
CHRISTMAS. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS SITUATION AND
PLACE ANY WEATHER RADIOS THEY MAY HAVE ON THE ALERT MODE BEFORE
GOING TO BED TONIGHT. ALSO...ONE MAY WANT TO MAKE SURE ALL OUTSIDE
CHRISTMAS DECORATIONS OR INFLATABLE CHRISTMAS OBJECTS ARE SAFELY
SECURE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS.

SHORT TERM...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST TO NEAR
LAFAYETTE AND BATON ROUGE...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT THIS EVENING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AFTER 9 PM AS THE FRONT
HEADS NORTH.

OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO OVER 40 KNOTS...HELPING TO SURGE WARM MOIST GULF
AIR INLAND. FORCING PROVIDED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE
GREATLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND BEFORE 6 AM. AT FIRST...THESE STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL
DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WORKING WITH THE IMPRESSIVE
SHEAR VALUES. BEFORE DAYBREAK...CELLS WILL TRANSITION INTO MORE
OF A SURFACE BASED NATURE AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE STORMS TO WORK OFF THE HIGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR
VALUES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ROTATING CELLS COMING ONSHORE THAT
MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED TORNADOES.

CHRISTMAS DAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO
FORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY MORNING...WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
TO BETWEEN LUFKIN AND TOLEDO BEND BY NOON...THEN QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE EVENING HOURS.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES...LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO
OVER 50 KNOTS. MEANWHILE...LEFT EXIT REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL
JET WILL REACH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE ROTATING CELLS
WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE
VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE AT ITS GREATEST. THEREFORE...THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE ROTATING CELLS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR...AND ACCORDINGLY SPC HAS THAT AREA
OUTLINED IN A MODERATE RISK FOR TOMORROW.

MEANWHILE...A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OVER EAST TEXAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS
PROGRESSIVE MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL BE AIDED BY 60 PLUS KNOT MID
LEVEL WINDS...AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THAT WILL CREATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AS THE LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILE BECOMES MORE UNI-DIRECTIONAL. THIS SQUALL LINE
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE SABINE RIVER BY NOON TIME...AND CONTINUE TO
EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 6 PM.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND. HOWEVER...DRY SLOT ALOFT WILL LIKELY CUT
OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS POINT...WITH JUST SOME
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHERE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL BE AT ITS BEST.

CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE OF A
DOWN GLIDE PROFILE HELPING TO END PRECIPITATION BEFORE COLDEST
AIR ARRIVES.

RUA

LONG TERM...
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS AND AT-LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE
DOWN TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH RETURN FLOW STARTING UP ON
THURSDAY. ENOUGH RETURN FLOW MOISTURE TO BRING ABOUT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...WITH A COOL DOWN AGAIN
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

RUA

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
BY MIDNIGHT...SO WILL START OFF WITH EXERCISE CAUTION. THESE WINDS
WILL FURTHER INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS ACROSS THE REGION...AND WILL THEREFORE...START SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AT 12Z TUESDAY. THIS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP. SOME GUSTS TO OVER GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
STRONG NORTH WINDS...WATER AGAIN WILL BE PULLED AWAY FROM THE
COAST LOWERING TIDE LEVELS TO NEARLY 2 FEET BELOW PREDICTED
ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A LOW WATER ADVISORY
ON WEDNESDAY.

THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT A SQUALL LINE IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  38  49  33  56 /  90  10  10  10  10
KBPT  76  35  49  33  57 /  80  10  10  10  10
KAEX  70  35  46  28  53 /  90  20  10  10  10
KLFT  75  41  50  34  56 /  90  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...CALCASIEU...EAST CAMERON...
     IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...
     ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN
     JASPER...SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL
     CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE
     LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM CST THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...
     VERMILION BAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
437 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

GMZ430-432-435-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262-261045-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-
BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-
SOUTHERN NEWTON-
437 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AROUND
SUNSET. RAINS ENDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE THREAT TODAY WILL BE
FROM ISOLATED TORNADOES... STRONG WINDS... AND LARGE HAIL.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
COLD WEATHER WILL SET INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WARMING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-261045-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
437 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND WILL SWING WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
352 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     HAIL             JENNINGS                30.22N 92.66W
12/25/2012  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON DAVIS    LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A BRIEF PERIOD OF DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY
            THE JENNINGS POLICE DEPARTMENT.

&&

ATINGLER

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