Low Water Advisory 8, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1149 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

.AVIATION...A SQUALL LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BPT TERMINAL
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SINCE THIS LINE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 42
KNOTS IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. THIS LINE
SHOULD MOVE INTO LCH AND AEX AROUND 2 PM WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 45
KNOTS. ASSUMING THIS LINE HOLDS TOGETHER, LFT AND ARA CAN EXPECT
THIS LINE AFTER 4 PM WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 42 KNOTS. IFR
CONDITIONS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE.

SKIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND DAYBREAK WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012/

UPDATE...
HAVE REFRESHED GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS WITH THE NEW TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 694 ISSUED BY SPC THROUGH 4 PM CST. CURRENTLY...SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WHICH IS FROM NORTH OF JASPER THEN EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR. THESE INITIAL CELLS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED IN
NATURE WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
THEREFORE...SHORTLY ALL STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD HAVE A ROOT BASE AT THE SURFACE. WITH VERY HIGH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR...THESE DISCRETE CELLS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR ROTATION
AND BECOMING TORNADIC. ACTIVITY WILL END LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MOVES RAPIDLY
EASTWARD. A SQUALL LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WITH STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TORNADO WITH ANY BOW SEGMENTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

OF OTHER NOTE...KLCH WILL CONDUCT A 18Z SPECIAL UPPER AIR SOUNDING
IN SUPPORT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012/

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691 HAS BEEN REPLACED BY THE TORNADO
WATCH 692...THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING
PARISHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ST LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...
AND ACADIA. THE TORNADO WATCH WILL ALSO NOW INCLUDE THE NEW
PARISHES OF IBERIA... ST MARTIN... ST MARY... AND VERMILION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FROM COASTAL VERMILION PARISH
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY
IS ANTICIPATED. AN EXTREMELY VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
RAPIDLY EAST THEN NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS WILL BRING INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY STRONG THROUGH THE DAY. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WITH CONVECTION RAPIDLY
COMING TO AN END.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691 IS OUT UNTIL 9 AM FOR COUNTIES
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARISHES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE WARM
FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 60S FROM BEAUMONT TO
LAFAYETTE. A FEW STORMS THIS MORNING HAVE SHOWN SOME ROTATION WITH
OTHERS INDICATING HAIL SPIKES. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS NOW
LIFTING INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA AT THIS
TIME.

THIS IS THE FIRST ROUND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE THREAT TODAY WILL BE FROM ISOLATED TORNADOES...STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WINDS WILL PICKUP THIS MORNING AND A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL
COUNTIES IN TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TOWARDS SUNSET. RAINS TO END BY THIS EVE ACROSS
CNTRL LA.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH
MORNING LOWS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR NEAR
FREEZING FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  38  49  33  56 /  90  10   0   0  10
KBPT  76  35  49  33  57 /  80  10   0   0  10
KAEX  70  35  46  28  53 / 100  20   0   0  10
KLFT  75  41  50  34  56 / 100  10   0   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...
     SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...
     VERMILION BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
437 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

GMZ430-432-435-LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-
216-259>262-261045-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-
BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-
ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-
SOUTHERN NEWTON-
437 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND EXIT SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AROUND
SUNSET. RAINS ENDING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE THREAT TODAY WILL BE
FROM ISOLATED TORNADOES... STRONG WINDS... AND LARGE HAIL.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
COLD WEATHER WILL SET INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WARMING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-261045-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
437 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND WILL SWING WINDS AROUND
TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN AND
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
147 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1216 PM     TORNADO          BEAUMONT                30.09N 94.14W
12/25/2012                   JEFFERSON          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THIS REPORT WAS DETERMINED TO BE FALSE.

1228 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VIDOR                   30.13N 94.00W
12/25/2012                   ORANGE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            VIDOR POLICE REPORT AN APARTMENT COMPLEX AT 475 S DENVER
            HAD ITS ROOF BLOWN OFF AND DEBRIS SCATTERED ON THE
            ROADWAY. PHOTOS POSTED TO KBMTS FACEBOOK INDICATE DAMAGE
            TO BUILDING SIGNS ON AN OUTLET MALL AS WELL AS A LARGE
            TREE LIMB FALLEN ON A HOME RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT
            DAMAGE TO THE PORCH AND ROOF.

&&

DJONES

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
218 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     HAIL             JENNINGS                30.22N 92.66W
12/25/2012  E0.25 INCH       JEFFERSON DAVIS    LA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS DIME SIZE HAIL NEAR JENNINGS

&&

DJONES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
229 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0211 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 N MAMOU               30.66N 92.42W
12/25/2012                   EVANGELINE         LA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS A FUNNEL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE TORNADO 4
            MILES SOUTHEAST OF VIDRINE.

0215 PM     TORNADO          7 SE VILLE PLATTE       30.62N 92.20W
12/25/2012                   ST. LANDRY         LA   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORTS A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN NEAR
            LEDOUX.

&&

DJONES