Special Weather Statement, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1246 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY AND INTO EARLY EVENING. LOWER CEILINGS AND VIS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORM ALONG WITH ERRATIC WINDS. KAEX WILL
EXPERIENCE RAIN FOR THE NEXT HR OR 2, BUT CLEAR AS THE CONVECTION
MOVES AWAY. TOMORROW MORE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012/

UPDATE...
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAS SEEN STORMS TRAINING ACROSS THIS
REGION WITH RAINFALL TOTALS ABOVE SIX INCHES... WITH SOME LOCATIONS
OVER VERMILION PARISH ABOVE 10 INCHES OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND
THIS WILL RAISE THE THREAT OF FLOODING. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER
TODAY HAVE LOWER THE AFTERNOON TEMPS A BIT. OTHERWISE HAVE MADE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ZONES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THIS FORECAST TAF PACKAGE.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
MOVING SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WILL PLACE VCSH
AT KLCH/KLFT/KARA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNTIL ABOUT MID-MORNING WHEN
NOCTURNALS SHOULD DIMINISH.

LEFT OVER MID AND UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER
DAYTIME HEATING SOME...WITH NEXT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS. TRIED TO TIME THIS ACTIVITY WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT
EACH TAF SITE. DUE TO THE EXPECTED LATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
ACTIVITY AND HIGH INSTABILITY...SOME OF THE STORMS AGAIN COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012/

SYNOPSIS...MCS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME STRONG TSTMS DURING THE LATE EVENING
HAS MOVED OUT OVER THE GULF OFF THE UPPER TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO RIDGE
IN FROM THE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE ARKLATEX. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN
EASTERLY WAVE OR INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS OUT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL HEAD WEST
INTO SOUTH TEXAS, KEEPING OUR AREA IN A VERY MOIST SECTOR.

SHORT TERM...WARMING AT H85 WITH UPPER SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN
SECTOR OF THE WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. THE BIG CAVEAT IS THE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
LEFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION SUPPRESSING
TEMPS. WILL GO WITH SUFFICIENT INSULATION TO NUDGE TEMPS ABOVE
GUIDANCE LEVELS AWAY FROM ACADIANA. SINCE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE
INTO THE LOW 70S, THIS WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105...BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 108 BUT ABOVE WHAT WE'VE
BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE POPS WHICH WILL MEAN SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...AFTER ANOTHER WET WEEKEND, WE SHOULD SEE A RECOVERY
TOWARDS MORE TYPICAL POPS DURING THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SULTRY TEMPS THOUGH WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITIES
WITH THAT ACTIVE SEA-BREEZE PATTERN AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH A
SOUTHERLY DEEP LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING OFF THE GULF.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  90  75  93  77 /  30  50  30  30  10
KBPT  75  88  76  93  76 /  30  40  30  30  10
KAEX  76  91  74  94  74 /  30  50  20  30  10
KLFT  78  86  73  92  76 /  40  50  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...
     ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1004 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
221100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
1004 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF ACADIANA THROUGH 9 PM...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG HEATING WILL WORK ON A VERY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRIEFLY PULSE TO SEVERE LIMITS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWN-BURST WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. DUE TO THE
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND IN ACADIANA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAIN AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
VERMILION, LAFAYETTE, SAINT LANDRY, IBERIA, SAINT MARTIN, AND SAINT
MARY PARISHES THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WET SECTOR OF AN INVERTED UPPER TROF HEADING WEST INTO TEXAS.

THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF A MORE TYPICAL
VARIETY FOR SUMMERTIME DURING THE WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE SEA-BREEZE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
REPORT ANY INDIVIDUAL REPORTS OF FLOODING OF SEVERE WEATHER.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-221000-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
1004 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS A WAVE IN THE EASTERLIES
MOVES TO OUR WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE HEADING INTO TEXAS ON SUNDAY, KEEPING THE
COASTAL WATERS IN THE MOIST SECTOR AND MAINTAINING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. AS WE GET INTO THE WORK WEEK, THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

BARRING ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT, NOT
ANTICIPATING A NEED FOR SPOTTERS OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1018 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND LAKE CHARLES            30.21N 93.20W
07/20/2012  U60 MPH          CALCASIEU          LA   PUBLIC

            LAKE CHARLES RIVER PILOTS CALLED TO REPORT THAT A SHIP
            BROKE LOOSE FROM THE DOCK DURING THE THUNDERSTORM. TIME
            ESTIMATED UPON REPORT FROM CALLER.

&&

RDEAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1029 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW LAKE CHARLES       30.18N 93.24W
07/20/2012                   CALCASIEU          LA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES
            ON MOBILE ST. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON PREV REPORTS.

&&

RDEAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1035 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WSW LAKE CHARLES      30.19N 93.27W
07/20/2012                   CALCASIEU          LA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED A LARGE PINE TREE DOWN ON
            A HOUSE.

&&

RDEAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
116 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

LAZ031>033-042-043-211915-
ST. LANDRY LA-EVANGELINE LA-ALLEN LA-ACADIA LA-JEFFERSON DAVIS LA-
116 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. LANDRY...EVANGELINE...
ALLEN...ACADIA AND JEFFERSON DAVIS PARISHES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 112 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES EAST OF
HARMONY TO BASILE TO RICHARD TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF OPELOUSAS...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MOWATA BY 125 PM...
  KINDER AND BRANCH BY 140 PM...
  LEBLANC...MAXIE AND IOTA BY 145 PM...
  PINE ISLAND AND MIRE BY 200 PM...
  FENTON AND EVANGELINE BY 210 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 3071 9293 3054 9207 3026 9218 3013 9251
      3022 9280 3044 9309 3059 9297

TINGLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
149 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

LAZ033-043>045-052-053-211945-
ST. LANDRY LA-LAFAYETTE LA-ACADIA LA-UPPER ST. MARTIN LA-VERMILION LA-
IBERIA LA-
149 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ST. LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...
ACADIA...VERMILION...IBERIA AND ST. MARTIN PARISHES UNTIL 245 PM
CDT...

AT 145 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF RAYNE TO 4 MILES EAST OF CATAHOULA...MOVING SOUTH AT 20
MPH.

* THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CROWLEY...RAYNE...LAFAYETTE AND DUSON BY 155 PM...
  RIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE AND BROUSSARD BY 210 PM...
  MORSE BY 215 PM...
  INDIAN BAYOU AND YOUNGSVILLE BY 220 PM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

LAT...LON 2996 9153 3000 9260 3033 9257 3029 9159
      3026 9159 3025 9156 3025 9151

TINGLER