Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Lake Charles, LA

492 
WGUS64 KLCH 212105
FFALCH

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
405 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

.RAINS HAVE ENDED THIS EVENING AND WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

LAZ033-044-045-052>055-212215-
/O.CAN.KLCH.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-120722T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ST. LANDRY-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OPELOUSAS...EUNICE...LAFAYETTE...
BREAUX BRIDGE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...KAPLAN...
NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...FRANKLIN...PATTERSON...BERWICK...
BAYOU VISTA...STEPHENSVILLE
405 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

RAINS HAVE MOVED OUT INTO THE GULF AND HEAVY RAINS HAVE ENDED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUSIANA THIS EVENING.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
633 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THIS FORECAST TAF PACKAGE.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
MOVING SOUTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. WILL PLACE VCSH
AT KLCH/KLFT/KARA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNTIL ABOUT MID-MORNING WHEN
NOCTURNALS SHOULD DIMINISH.

LEFT OVER MID AND UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER MAY HINDER
DAYTIME HEATING SOME...WITH NEXT DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING HOURS. TRIED TO TIME THIS ACTIVITY WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT
EACH TAF SITE. DUE TO THE EXPECTED LATE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
ACTIVITY AND HIGH INSTABILITY...SOME OF THE STORMS AGAIN COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012/

SYNOPSIS...MCS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME STRONG TSTMS DURING THE LATE EVENING
HAS MOVED OUT OVER THE GULF OFF THE UPPER TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO RIDGE
IN FROM THE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE ARKLATEX. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN
EASTERLY WAVE OR INVERTED TROF DEVELOPS OUT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL HEAD WEST
INTO SOUTH TEXAS, KEEPING OUR AREA IN A VERY MOIST SECTOR.

SHORT TERM...WARMING AT H85 WITH UPPER SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN
SECTOR OF THE WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. THE BIG CAVEAT IS THE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
LEFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION SUPPRESSING
TEMPS. WILL GO WITH SUFFICIENT INSOLATION TO NUDGE TEMPS ABOVE
GUIDANCE LEVELS AWAY FROM ACADIANA. SINCE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE
INTO THE LOW 70S, THIS WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105...BELOW ADVISORY THREHOLD OF 108 BUT ABOVE WHAT WE'VE
BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. STAYED CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE POPS WHICH WILL MEAN SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...AFTER ANOTHER WET WEEKEND, WE SHOULD SEE A RECOVERY
TOWARDS MORE TYPICAL POPS DURING THE WORK WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. SULTRY TEMPS THOUGH WITH RATHER HIGH HUMIDITIES
WITH THAT ACTIVE SEABREEZE PATTERN AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH A
SOUTHERLY DEEP LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING OFF THE GULF.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  93  76  90  75  93 /  50  30  50  30  30
KBPT  94  75  88  76  93 /  40  20  40  30  30
KAEX  97  76  91  74  94 /  40  30  50  20  30
KLFT  91  78  86  73  92 /  50  40  50  20  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
436 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
221000-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON-
EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER-
NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON-
436 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG HEATING WILL WORK ON A VERY MOIST AND CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BRIEFLY PULSE TO SEVERE LIMITS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
DOWN-BURST WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE TSTMS. AFTER MIDNIGHT ANOTHER FLARE UP OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DUE TO COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS AND NOCTURNAL STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING INLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AS THE AREA WILL BE
WITHIN A WET SECTOR OF AN INVERTED UPPER TROF HEADING WEST INTO TEXAS.

THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OF A MORE TYPICAL
VARIETY FOR SUMMERTIME DURING THE WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE SEA-BREEZE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SINCE NO ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, NOT ANTICIPATING A
NEED FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION.

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-221000-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
436 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS A WAVE IN THE EASTERLIES
MOVES TO OUR WEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE HEADING INTO TEXAS ON SUNDAY, KEEPING
THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MOIST SECTOR AND MAINTAINING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. AS WE GET INTO THE WORK WEEK, THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

BARRING ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPMENT, NOT
ANTICIPATING A NEED FOR SPOTTERS OUT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

SWEENEY