Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Jackson, KY

July 18, 2012McCreary County, Wayne County, Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 18, 2012, 3:28 PM EDT for McCreary County, Wayne County, Kentucky. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 18, 2012, 3:28 PM EDT (19:28 UTC)
Expired: Jul 18, 2012, 4:00 PM EDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties McCreary County, KY, Wayne County, KY

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 176 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2917 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -33 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 858 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 31 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 63 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

588 
WUUS53 KJKL 181928
SVRJKL
KYC147-231-182000-
/O.NEW.KJKL.SV.W.0167.120718T1928Z-120718T2000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
328 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN MCCREARY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  SOUTH CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 323 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  PARMLEYSVILLE...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF MONTICELLO...AND MOVING
  SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GREAT MEADOWS CAMPSITES AND CO-OPERATIVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 8481 3662 8486 3672 8483 3679 8475
      3660 8444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 313DEG 15KT 3666 8475
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

SHALLENBERGER

2 follow-up statements

699 
WWUS53 KJKL 181945
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

KYC147-231-182000-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0167.000000T0000Z-120718T2000Z/
MCCREARY KY-WAYNE KY-
345 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
WAYNE AND SOUTHWESTERN MCCREARY COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 340 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GREAT MEADOWS CAMPSITES...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF ONEIDA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OFSOUTHWESTERN MCCREARY COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3675 8475 3674 8467 3661 8455 3660 8481
      3662 8486 3672 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 313DEG 15KT 3660 8470
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

SHALLENBERGER

214 
WWUS53 KJKL 181955
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

KYC147-231-182006-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0167.000000T0000Z-120718T2000Z/
MCCREARY KY-WAYNE KY-
355 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WAYNE AND
SOUTHWESTERN MCCREARY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3675 8475 3674 8467 3661 8455 3660 8481
      3662 8486 3672 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 313DEG 15KT 3657 8466

$$

SHALLENBERGER

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 18, 2:16 PM EDT, 1 hour 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 2:16 PM EDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
216 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING HAS KEPT THE FCST
BUSY. MOST ACTIVITY OCURRING ON OUTFLOWS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS WITH
GENERAL MOTION TO THE SE AT 5KT OR LESS. HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2 IN AND SLOW MOTION HAS RESULTED IN LOCALITIES WITH ROADS
CLOSED WITH HIGH WATER. THE WORST OF THE STORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF OUR
ERN COUNTIES WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS IN OUR SRN COUNTIES. CLOUD COVER
AND PCPN HAS HELD THE TEMPS DOWN AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RECOVERY THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BUT THE PCPN HAS
INCREASED DWPTS AND DO NOT EXPECT OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO FALL MUCH BELOW
CURRENT DWPT TEMPS.

COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THRU CNTRL OH/IN/PA TO CONTINUE TOWARDS KY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF STORMS IN THE FCST...
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAWN AND THEN TSTMS LIKELY ON THU WITH THE FOCUS
AROUND THE FRONTAL BNDRY. HOWEVER ANY PLACE AHEAD OF OR VERY CLOSE
BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRIME FOR CONVECTION DUE TO THE BNDRIES THAT HAVE
BEEN PUT DOWN TODAY. WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN IN FCST TONIGHT
WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S. THU WILL GET A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SLOW MOVING STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE A
CONCERN WITH HEAVY RAIN ON AREAS THAT GOT TOO MUCH RAIN TOO FAST
TODAY. CURRENTLY HAVE LIKELY POPS INTO THU NIGHT BUT WILL POSSIBLY
NEED TO LOWER THIS VALUE IF THE FRONT MAKES BETTER PROGRESS THRU THE
CWFA THAN EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN THE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WILL HIGHLIGHT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AS A DOMINANT RIDGE REMAINS IN THE WEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS. DURING THE PERIOD...SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. WITH
SEVERAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES
DURING THE PERIOD...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING WITH THE
WAVES IN THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES BUT OVERALL A GENERAL BLEND OF
THE ALL MODELS BLEND SHOULD HANDLE THE FORECAST FAIRLY WELL. THE
PATTERN DOES SEEM TO SHIFT BY DAY 7 AS THE RIDGE DOES SLIDE EAST
GIVING A REPRIEVE IN THE WET PATTERN.

ON FRIDAY...A PASSING 500MB WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH A GENERAL SLOWING OF THE FEATURE AS IT SLIDES
SOUTH. WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ALL MODEL BLEND...WILL RAMP DOWN POPS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG
THE SOUTH BORDER AS IT DOES APPEAR THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT. BY
SUNDAY...THE AREA ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND SEVERAL WAVES TRAVELING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED. THE ALL BLEND MODEL FORECAST SEEMED TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
SOME TEMPO IFR UNDER THE STORMS HOWEVER TIMING IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN
TO TRY AND PREDICT EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE STORMS WILL FORM. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME WILL BE FROM 18-22Z. EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG TO FORM
TONIGHT. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SOME VLIFR AT SME AND LOZ WITH IFR
LIKELY AT JKL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM....SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DUSTY

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 18, 6:45 AM EDT, 8 hours 43 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-191345-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
645 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING WITH DITCHES AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS RUNNING FULL.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
PROPER HYDRATION WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
WORKING OUTSIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING MAY CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING WITH DITCHES AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS RUNNING FULL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JJ

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 18, 1:12 PM EDT, 2 hours 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
112 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1251 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CARR CREEK              37.23N 82.97W
07/18/2012                   KNOTT              KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HWY 160 CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

TBREWER

Local storm report, Jul 18, 1:37 PM EDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      REDFOX                  37.22N 82.94W
07/18/2012                   KNOTT              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EVACUATIONS STILL ONGOING IN REDFOX FROM PEOPLE TRAPPED
            IN HOMES AND CARS.

&&

ABE

Local storm report, Jul 18, 2:22 PM EDT, 1 hour 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
222 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E MARROWBONE          37.37N 82.39W
07/18/2012                   PIKE               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER ROAD ON HARLESS CREEK.

&&

TBREWER

Local storm report, Jul 18, 2:23 PM EDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
223 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E MARROWBONE          37.37N 82.38W
07/18/2012                   PIKE               KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER ROAD AT ROAD JUNCTION.

&&

TBREWER

Local storm report, Jul 18, 2:33 PM EDT, 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
233 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     TSTM WND DMG     EZEL                    37.89N 83.44W
07/18/2012                   MORGAN             KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            A FEW TREES BLOWN DOWN.

1045 AM     FLOOD            EZEL                    37.89N 83.44W
07/18/2012                   MORGAN             KY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MINOR FLOODING AND SOME DRIVEWAYS WASHED OUT.

&&

ABE

Local storm report, Jul 18, 3:21 PM EDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
321 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNW CORNETTSVILLE     37.15N 83.09W
07/18/2012                   PERRY              KY   NEWSPAPER

            FORT BRANCH ROAD WASHED OUT AND UNDERCUT.

&&

ABE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 18, 4:43 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Breathitt, Clay, Owsley, Perry	2 hr
Jul 18, 5:52 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Breathitt	59 min
Jul 18, 6:01 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Bell	51 min
Jul 18, 8:54 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Bath, Fleming	51 min
Jul 18, 9:38 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Fleming	3 hr
Jul 18, 10:53 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Menifee, Morgan, Rowan	2 hr
Jul 18, 10:56 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Bath	2 hr
Jul 18, 10:58 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Knott, Leslie, Letcher, Perry	5 hr
Jul 18, 12:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Martin, Pike	51 min
Jul 18, 1:15 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Martin, Pike	95 min
Jul 18, 1:37 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Pike	3 hr
Jul 18, 1:40 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Bell, Knox, McCreary, Whitley	3 hr
Jul 18, 2:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Knox, Laurel, McCreary, Whitley	52 min
Jul 18, 2:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne	35 min
Jul 18, 3:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne	22 min
Jul 18, 3:35 PM EDT	Flash Flood Watch	JKL	Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Floyd, Harlan, Johnson and 13 more	52 hr
Jul 18, 6:20 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Bath, Fleming	3 hr
Jul 18, 6:57 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Bath, Fleming, Rowan	2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.