Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Jackson, KY

685 
WWUS53 KJKL 020109
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
909 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

KYC025-071-115-119-153-175-237-020130-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-120702T0130Z/
JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MORGAN KY-WOLFE KY-BREATHITT KY-
FLOYD KY-
909 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN FLOYD...NORTHEASTERN BREATHITT...EASTERN WOLFE...
SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...CENTRAL MAGOFFIN...NORTHWESTERN KNOTT AND
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 906 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
BAYS...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACKSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SALYERSVILLE...HENDRICKS...GUAGE...FORAKER...STRINGTOWN...CAMP
  LEWIS...LAKESVILLE...MASON...LUNAH...BURNING FORK...LAMBRIC...
  SUBLETT...SKAGGS...CONLEY STATION...BRADLEY...WEST ROYALTON
  STATION...CARVER...ROYALTON...CARVER STATION AND TIPTOP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3768 8286 3746 8309 3779 8357 3791 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 304DEG 27KT 3764 8320
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

RAY

194 
WWUS53 KJKL 020129
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
929 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

KYC025-071-115-119-153-175-237-020138-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0115.000000T0000Z-120702T0130Z/
JOHNSON KY-KNOTT KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MORGAN KY-WOLFE KY-BREATHITT KY-
FLOYD KY-
929 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN FLOYD...
NORTHEASTERN BREATHITT...EASTERN WOLFE...SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...
CENTRAL MAGOFFIN...NORTHWESTERN KNOTT AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
JOHNSON COUNTIES IS BEING REISSUED...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING 
NUMBER 119 WAS ISSUED TO REPLACE AND EXPAND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
NUMBER 115 WHICH EXPIRES AT 930 PM.

PLEASE REFER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NUMBER 119 FOR THE 
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3768 8286 3746 8309 3779 8357 3791 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 304DEG 27KT 3756 8306

$$

RAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

CURRENT SETUP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON ON VIS HAS THE
UPSTREAM MCS NOW OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA HEADING SOUTHEAST. CURRENT CU
POP UPS IN SOUTHERN IN AND INTO SW OH INDICATE THAT SOME ACTIVITY MAY
POP UP BEFORE THE MCS REACHES THE CWA BORDER. SPECIALLY SINCE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AND WITH THIS MORNINGS
RAINFALL...DEWS UP NORTH ARE IN THE MID 60S. A UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
FOR A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE MCS.

WITH A LATER ARRIVAL...THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES ONSET ALIGNS WITH MAX
HEATING AND WILL BANK ON A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. CONCERNING
FURTHER UPSTREAM WITH THE...TRAIN OF SEVERAL MCS COMING DOWN THE
PIKE...WILL INSERT CHANCE POPS INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR THIS AND
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON TO COUPLE WITH THE MAX HEATING. MODELS HAVE HAD
A BIT OF TROUBLE TIMING THESE SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT
TREND WITH THE NORTH GETTING SOME RAINFALL TODAY WILL LEAD TO A BIT
LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
AS WELL SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AND LET THE ONE
FOR TODAY EXPIRE AT 02Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY AGREE THAT...IN GENERAL...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH INITIALLY BEFORE IT WANES AND ANOTHER BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
AS THE FIRST RIDGE WEAKENS...VARIOUS SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY CARVE
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND LOCALLY KNOCK HEIGHTS DOWN FURTHER. THE NEW
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...YET AGAIN...WE WILL BE ON THE FRINGE AND SOME ENERGY WILL
LIKELY IMPINGE OUR EASTERN FLANK DURING THE LATTER PARTS OF THE
EXTENDED. PREFER A BLENDED SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FOCUS
ON THE CENTERS OF THE RIDGES AND TAPERING THEIR SUPPRESSING/
OPPRESSING INFLUENCES WITH DISTANCE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED OUTLOOK WITH
RESPECT TO HEAT AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
HOWEVER...WHAT WE MAKE UP FOR IN LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE MADE UP BY THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR AND KEEP THE
HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE 90S...BUT PROBABLY JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
LEVELS. EARLY ON...THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND NOT FAVORING ONE PART OF THE CWA OVER ANOTHER.
AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE SOLID CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES DOWN TO SLIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE MORNINGS. AS THE RENEWED RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
SHIFT EAST TO NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...STILL PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. DURING THIS
TIME...THE HEAT WILL BUILD IN MORE EFFECTIVELY AS THE MOISTURE WANES
AND THE UPPER RIDGE BRINGS ITS SUPPRESSION TO THE AREA. THERE WILL
REMAIN A CONSTANT THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STRAFING PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS MCS CLUSTERS...AND THEIR POTENTIAL
TO SPAWN ACTIVITY ANEW - WELL FED BY THE AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE
EACH AFTERNOON...ROAM THE FRINGES OF THE MID LEVEL HEAT BUBBLE.
SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ITS HOT AND STICKY GRIP ON OUR WEATHER THIS
UPCOMING WEEK...BUT THERE IS REASON TO HAVE HOPE FOR SOME HIT AND
MISS RELIEF FROM OUR PARCHED...DROUGHT...CONDITIONS.

THE GRID LOAD CAME IN ABOUT AS REASONABLE AS ONE CAN EXPECT FOR A
MESOSCALE DRIVEN REGIME SUCH AS THIS ONE IN PLACE. DID ADJUST THE
POPS A BIT FOR EACH NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT A MORE STANDARD DIURNAL
PATTERN. ALSO...PUT IN A SMALL AMOUNT OF TERRAIN BASED DETAILS TO THE
LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS...NIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

VFR CONDITIONS RESIDE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY. THE ONE
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS UPSTREAM OVER NORTH WESTERN IN AS A MCS
TAKES SHAPE AND BEGINS TRACKING SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN KENTUCKY AS WELL
AS JKL AND LOZ WILL LIKELY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 22Z AND HAVE PUT THUNDER OVER JKL AND VCTS OVER LOZ. THIS WILL
PUT JKL IN MVFR CONDITIONS. SME WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE STORMS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH. JKL AND LOZ WILL SEE
MVFR FOG DUE TO THIS AFTERNOONS RAINFALL. BY 13Z TOMORROW...FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CU AT 5 KFT. AT THIS TIME THE
SYNOPTIC PICTURE IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHEN THE NEXT MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH
DUE TO THIS PATTERN IN PLACE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-021100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
EARLY TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.

WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THE ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY STORM REPORTS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.

JJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
724 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

KYZ060-106-020000-
MENIFEE-MORGAN-
724 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 800
PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING...

   NORTHEASTERN MENIFEE AND
   WESTERN MORGAN.

AT 724 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SCRANTON...OR
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF FRENCHBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

KAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
826 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0823 PM     HAIL             WEST LIBERTY            37.91N 83.27W
07/01/2012  E0.88 INCH       MORGAN             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL FALLING.

&&

RAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
835 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             BIG WOODS               37.99N 83.47W
07/01/2012  E0.75 INCH       MENIFEE            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 35 MPH
            OCCURRED AT 750 PM AND 755 PM.

&&

JJ