Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Jackson, KY

482 
WWUS53 KJKL 020054
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
854 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

KYC063-071-115-153-175-020100-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-120702T0100Z/
JOHNSON KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MORGAN KY-ELLIOTT KY-FLOYD KY-
854 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
FLOYD...SOUTHERN ELLIOTT...MORGAN...NORTH CENTRAL MAGOFFIN AND
WESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 853 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES
NORTH OF WINIFRED...OR 14 MILES NORTH OF PAINTSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CHANDLERVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3811 8289 3809 8292 3806 8295 3803 8300
      3798 8302 3797 8299 3800 8297 3800 8294
      3795 8280 3768 8287 3793 8339 3805 8322
      3812 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 267DEG 21KT 3802 8284
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

RAY

131 
WWUS53 KJKL 020056
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
856 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

KYC063-071-115-153-175-020106-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-120702T0100Z/
JOHNSON KY-MAGOFFIN KY-MORGAN KY-ELLIOTT KY-FLOYD KY-
856 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN FLOYD...SOUTHERN
ELLIOTT...MORGAN...NORTH CENTRAL MAGOFFIN AND WESTERN JOHNSON
COUNTIES IS BEING REISSUED...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NUMBER 116 WAS ISSUED TO REPLACE AND 
EXPAND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NUMBER 114 WHICH WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM.

PLEASE REFER TO THAT BULLETIN FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 3811 8289 3809 8292 3806 8295 3803 8300
      3798 8302 3797 8299 3800 8297 3800 8294
      3795 8280 3768 8287 3793 8339 3805 8322
      3812 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 267DEG 21KT 3802 8283

$$

RAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

CURRENT SETUP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON ON VIS HAS THE
UPSTREAM MCS NOW OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA HEADING SOUTHEAST. CURRENT CU
POP UPS IN SOUTHERN IN AND INTO SW OH INDICATE THAT SOME ACTIVITY MAY
POP UP BEFORE THE MCS REACHES THE CWA BORDER. SPECIALLY SINCE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AND WITH THIS MORNINGS
RAINFALL...DEWS UP NORTH ARE IN THE MID 60S. A UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
FOR A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE MCS.

WITH A LATER ARRIVAL...THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES ONSET ALIGNS WITH MAX
HEATING AND WILL BANK ON A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. CONCERNING
FURTHER UPSTREAM WITH THE...TRAIN OF SEVERAL MCS COMING DOWN THE
PIKE...WILL INSERT CHANCE POPS INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR THIS AND
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON TO COUPLE WITH THE MAX HEATING. MODELS HAVE HAD
A BIT OF TROUBLE TIMING THESE SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT
TREND WITH THE NORTH GETTING SOME RAINFALL TODAY WILL LEAD TO A BIT
LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER
AS WELL SO WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AND LET THE ONE
FOR TODAY EXPIRE AT 02Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THE MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY AGREE THAT...IN GENERAL...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH INITIALLY BEFORE IT WANES AND ANOTHER BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
AS THE FIRST RIDGE WEAKENS...VARIOUS SHORTWAVES WILL LIKELY CARVE
CLOSER TO THE CWA AND LOCALLY KNOCK HEIGHTS DOWN FURTHER. THE NEW
BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER EAST
KENTUCKY DURING THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...YET AGAIN...WE WILL BE ON THE FRINGE AND SOME ENERGY WILL
LIKELY IMPINGE OUR EASTERN FLANK DURING THE LATTER PARTS OF THE
EXTENDED. PREFER A BLENDED SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FOCUS
ON THE CENTERS OF THE RIDGES AND TAPERING THEIR SUPPRESSING/
OPPRESSING INFLUENCES WITH DISTANCE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT IMPROVED OUTLOOK WITH
RESPECT TO HEAT AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
HOWEVER...WHAT WE MAKE UP FOR IN LOWER AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL LIKELY
BE MADE UP BY THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR AND KEEP THE
HEAT INDICES WELL INTO THE 90S...BUT PROBABLY JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
LEVELS. EARLY ON...THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND NOT FAVORING ONE PART OF THE CWA OVER ANOTHER.
AS SUCH...THERE WILL BE SOLID CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
CHANCES DOWN TO SLIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
BULK OF THE MORNINGS. AS THE RENEWED RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER IN THE EXTENDED...THE MAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
SHIFT EAST TO NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...STILL PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. DURING THIS
TIME...THE HEAT WILL BUILD IN MORE EFFECTIVELY AS THE MOISTURE WANES
AND THE UPPER RIDGE BRINGS ITS SUPPRESSION TO THE AREA. THERE WILL
REMAIN A CONSTANT THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STRAFING PORTIONS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS MCS CLUSTERS...AND THEIR POTENTIAL
TO SPAWN ACTIVITY ANEW - WELL FED BY THE AMPLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE
EACH AFTERNOON...ROAM THE FRINGES OF THE MID LEVEL HEAT BUBBLE.
SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ITS HOT AND STICKY GRIP ON OUR WEATHER THIS
UPCOMING WEEK...BUT THERE IS REASON TO HAVE HOPE FOR SOME HIT AND
MISS RELIEF FROM OUR PARCHED...DROUGHT...CONDITIONS.

THE GRID LOAD CAME IN ABOUT AS REASONABLE AS ONE CAN EXPECT FOR A
MESOSCALE DRIVEN REGIME SUCH AS THIS ONE IN PLACE. DID ADJUST THE
POPS A BIT FOR EACH NIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT A MORE STANDARD DIURNAL
PATTERN. ALSO...PUT IN A SMALL AMOUNT OF TERRAIN BASED DETAILS TO THE
LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS...NIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

VFR CONDITIONS RESIDE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY. THE ONE
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS UPSTREAM OVER NORTH WESTERN IN AS A MCS
TAKES SHAPE AND BEGINS TRACKING SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN KENTUCKY AS WELL
AS JKL AND LOZ WILL LIKELY SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 22Z AND HAVE PUT THUNDER OVER JKL AND VCTS OVER LOZ. THIS WILL
PUT JKL IN MVFR CONDITIONS. SME WILL LIKELY STAY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE STORMS WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH. JKL AND LOZ WILL SEE
MVFR FOG DUE TO THIS AFTERNOONS RAINFALL. BY 13Z TOMORROW...FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AND GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CU AT 5 KFT. AT THIS TIME THE
SYNOPTIC PICTURE IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHEN THE NEXT MCS WILL MOVE THROUGH
DUE TO THIS PATTERN IN PLACE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM....GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-021100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
EARLY TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.

WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THE ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY STORM REPORTS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.

JJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
724 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

KYZ060-106-020000-
MENIFEE-MORGAN-
724 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 800
PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING...

   NORTHEASTERN MENIFEE AND
   WESTERN MORGAN.

AT 724 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SCRANTON...OR
6 MILES NORTHEAST OF FRENCHBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAIN...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40
MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

KAS